{"id":33752,"date":"2017-08-23T12:35:44","date_gmt":"2017-08-23T02:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=33752"},"modified":"2017-08-23T12:35:44","modified_gmt":"2017-08-23T02:35:44","slug":"cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

The proliferation of sensors and data sources available to a modern military like the ADF often swamps the ability of the analyst to find what\u2019s truly relevant in the sea of information. The exponential increase in sensors and data sources hasn\u2019t been matched by an increase in human resources to process them. That imbalance makes aspirations of \u2018information superiority\u2019<\/a> untenable, leaving militaries vulnerable to promises that they\u2019ll have machine solutions for and certainty about what\u2019s an inherently human and uncertain problem: war.<\/p>\n

We must be careful about proclaiming a revolution in military analytics and be cognisant of the failed promises of the last \u2018revolution\u2019<\/a> that occupied Western military attention. \u2018Advanced analytics\u2019<\/a> is a bet on computers being able to process the data deluge<\/a> in a meaningful way to support military decision-making. My concern is that we don\u2019t fully understand how difficult that is to achieve, or the significant changes that such a gamble implies for the workforce charged with implementation.<\/p>\n

The fallacy of smart computing. <\/strong>Computers are only as smart as we program them to be. In the absence of Skynet-level AI<\/a>, they can\u2019t interrogate data holdings to generate links between diffuse pieces of information to predict or assess the military actions of a thinking human adversary. Existing software can\u2019t make sense of complex human interactions in the same way, or with the same time-sensitivity, that a well-trained analyst can or should. Much is made of the ability to assist with pattern recognition, and while analytics can certainly assist with that task, it still relies on someone programming the correct patterns to recognise. But understanding what those patterns might look like implies a degree of certainty about the tactical environment that rarely exists on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

Workforce design. <\/strong>The quandary we face is whether to design intelligence architecture around unproven advanced analytics platforms to get the most out of the technology, or to design an architecture that supports the analysts to understand the environment in which they work. Currently, with the personnel and technical overheads required to give advanced analytics systems a fighting chance\u2014particularly in the fields of data entry and algorithm development\u2014those two concerns appear mutually exclusive.<\/p>\n

Uniqueness of military data. <\/strong>Advanced analytics tools are seductive when designers conduct demonstrations using carefully calibrated data to show their theoretical capability. But military data is rarely clean and is inherently difficult to control. Analysts deal with everything from UAS feeds, to Facebook posts, to scraps of paper and everything in between. Those are unstructured data sources that are ill-suited to the needs of a platform designed to ingest and analyse structured data. Data standards are incredibly hard to control, and \u2018cleaning\u2019 data to make it usable is both time-consuming and takes an analyst away from trying to fuse their assessments across data sources. When the \u2018data in\u2019 is poor, the \u2018data out\u2019 will be wrong. Many of the analytics platforms marketed to the military were developed for finance and industry, where there are limited data sources and the data can be structured to suit the purpose of analysis. That isn\u2019t the case in the land warfare domain, and it\u2019s largely impossible at this point to write an algorithm that can bring order to the chaos that\u2019s inherent to war.<\/p>\n

Stovepiped development. <\/strong>Powerful software is available to exploit single-source sensors, but those tools are rarely linked into an all-source fusion tool. Many of those systems are also proprietary software, meaning they can\u2019t be exported into more powerful fusion systems. A sensible approach might be to design the all-source fusion system first and have individual sensor requirements nested underneath. However, that implies a level of capability development and acquisition alignment far in advance of existing stovepiped practice. A continuing challenge will be to find tools that work across the myriad defence systems, classified and unclassified, to provide a unified data environment as part of an enterprise approach to intelligence.<\/p>\n

The cognitive shift. <\/strong>Military analysts have traditionally relied on qualitative rather than quantitative skills. Their successes have mainly been based on forming judgements from scraps of disparate information, supported by the intuition that comes from hard-won experience. The skills and aptitude needed to operate advanced analytics are largely the opposite. They rely on programming and coding skills\u2014a quantitative aptitude to order and synchronise data. Those skills are more advanced than simply being technology \u2018savvy\u2019<\/a>. If those tools are to be the centrepiece of any future intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance enterprise, they\u2019ll require a significant cognitive shift from the intelligence workforce. The questions must be asked: What\u2019s lost in the process? And for what measurable gain?<\/p>\n

Tail to wag the dog. <\/strong>Advanced analytics platforms require enormous back-end support to make them work, and maintaining an army of dedicated contractors is beyond the scope of most militaries. Data scientists<\/a> are the most in-demand profession in today\u2019s job market, and there\u2019s no guarantee the military can access them in sufficient numbers to ensure the functionality of a chosen system.<\/p>\n

Militaries must decide what they need advanced analytics to achieve. Only when that understanding is reached can they partner with industry to design the tools to achieve it. This lack of translation between user need and provider solution is the biggest stumbling block to any meaningful progress in the short term. Ultimately, however, we need to understand whether it\u2019s even feasible to expect computers to make sense of war\u2019s inherent unpredictability. After significant work and investment, computers may be able to assist in ordering and sequencing data to make analysis more efficient, but I\u2019ll wager that they\u2019ll be unable to provide any greater certainty than a team of well-trained and experienced analysts who understand the true difficulty of creating order from chaos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The proliferation of sensors and data sources available to a modern military like the ADF often swamps the ability of the analyst to find what\u2019s truly relevant in the sea of information. The exponential increase …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":703,"featured_media":33754,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[646,95,1114,337],"class_list":["post-33752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-big-data","tag-cyber-security","tag-defence","tag-military"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nYou can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The proliferation of sensors and data sources available to a modern military like the ADF often swamps the ability of the analyst to find what\u2019s truly relevant in the sea of information. The exponential increase ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"668\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark Gilchrist\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark Gilchrist\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg\",\"width\":1000,\"height\":668,\"caption\":\"The Integral Computing System (ICS) fitted in one of the Army Protected Mobility Vehicle Light - Hawkei at the Accredited Test Services, Monegeetta Proving Ground, Victoria. *** Local Caption *** On Monday 31 July 2017 Defence's Project LAND 121 Phase 4 hosted a demonstration of the Hawkei Protected Mobility Vehicle - Light's (PMV-L) new integrated command, control, communications, computers and intelligence (C4I) system, at Monegeetta Proving Ground, Victoria. This activity is part of the Land 121 Ph 4 contract requirements. The new C4I capability, termed the C4I integral computing system (ICS), is scheduled to commence introduction into service in 2018. It represents the first use of a Generic Vehicle Architecture compliant C4I solution on a land platform by the ADF, and supports Army\u0092s Common Platform Architecture body of work, which is led by the Land Network Integration Centre, Army Headquarters. The PMV-L's new C4I ICS will integrate the following systems: \u0095 Completed Tranche 1 radio suite \u0095 Complete C4I ICS system hardware \u0095 Functional Intercom \u0095 Live navigation data from the Defense Advanced Global Positioning System Receiver \u0095 Demonstration of alerts and alarms \u0095 Over the air transmission of Battle Management System and radios on the move \u0095 Integrated remote weapon station \u0093LAND 121 Phase 4 is developing the next-generation Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) system for employment on the Hawkei protected vehicle. The C4I Integral Computing System (ICS) has been developed based on an Army requirement for a more integrated approach to C4I on vehicles that realises benefits in the areas of useability, space, weight and power. The C4I ICS uses a central computing concept to host various C4I systems and communications. The capability demonstration at Monegeetta Proving Ground, VIC, on 31 Jul 2017 demonstrated the initial C4I ICS capability fully operating on the Hawkei. The initial baseline of the C4I ICS will be available on low-rate-initial-production (LRIP) vehicles from 2018.\u0094\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/\",\"name\":\"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/90e6a272a9a5a5a095959546c93b27fb\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/90e6a272a9a5a5a095959546c93b27fb\",\"name\":\"Mark Gilchrist\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d17e3876435ebb06a8f639615aefe37e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d17e3876435ebb06a8f639615aefe37e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mark Gilchrist\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mark-gilchrist\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist","og_description":"The proliferation of sensors and data sources available to a modern military like the ADF often swamps the ability of the analyst to find what\u2019s truly relevant in the sea of information. The exponential increase ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":668,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Mark Gilchrist","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mark Gilchrist","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/20170731ran8115969_112.jpg","width":1000,"height":668,"caption":"The Integral Computing System (ICS) fitted in one of the Army Protected Mobility Vehicle Light - Hawkei at the Accredited Test Services, Monegeetta Proving Ground, Victoria. *** Local Caption *** On Monday 31 July 2017 Defence's Project LAND 121 Phase 4 hosted a demonstration of the Hawkei Protected Mobility Vehicle - Light's (PMV-L) new integrated command, control, communications, computers and intelligence (C4I) system, at Monegeetta Proving Ground, Victoria. This activity is part of the Land 121 Ph 4 contract requirements. The new C4I capability, termed the C4I integral computing system (ICS), is scheduled to commence introduction into service in 2018. It represents the first use of a Generic Vehicle Architecture compliant C4I solution on a land platform by the ADF, and supports Army\u0092s Common Platform Architecture body of work, which is led by the Land Network Integration Centre, Army Headquarters. The PMV-L's new C4I ICS will integrate the following systems: \u0095 Completed Tranche 1 radio suite \u0095 Complete C4I ICS system hardware \u0095 Functional Intercom \u0095 Live navigation data from the Defense Advanced Global Positioning System Receiver \u0095 Demonstration of alerts and alarms \u0095 Over the air transmission of Battle Management System and radios on the move \u0095 Integrated remote weapon station \u0093LAND 121 Phase 4 is developing the next-generation Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) system for employment on the Hawkei protected vehicle. The C4I Integral Computing System (ICS) has been developed based on an Army requirement for a more integrated approach to C4I on vehicles that realises benefits in the areas of useability, space, weight and power. The C4I ICS uses a central computing concept to host various C4I systems and communications. The capability demonstration at Monegeetta Proving Ground, VIC, on 31 Jul 2017 demonstrated the initial C4I ICS capability fully operating on the Hawkei. The initial baseline of the C4I ICS will be available on low-rate-initial-production (LRIP) vehicles from 2018.\u0094"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/","name":"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00","dateModified":"2017-08-23T02:35:44+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/90e6a272a9a5a5a095959546c93b27fb"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-write-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solution-military-big-data-challenge\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"You can\u2019t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military \u2018big data\u2019 challenge"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/90e6a272a9a5a5a095959546c93b27fb","name":"Mark Gilchrist","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d17e3876435ebb06a8f639615aefe37e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d17e3876435ebb06a8f639615aefe37e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mark Gilchrist"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mark-gilchrist\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33752"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/703"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33752"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33752\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33757,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33752\/revisions\/33757"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}