{"id":34018,"date":"2017-09-05T06:00:23","date_gmt":"2017-09-04T20:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=34018"},"modified":"2017-09-04T16:31:26","modified_gmt":"2017-09-04T06:31:26","slug":"north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

North Korea\u2019s sixth nuclear test is easily its most impressive. The fifth\u2014in September last year\u2014involved the detonation of a device similar in yield to the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The latest test features a substantially larger yield. Seismic signals are an imperfect indicator, but estimates currently range from about 70 kilotons all the way up to about 500 kilotons. It\u2019s possible, but not certain, that the test featured a genuine thermonuclear device, a second-generation nuclear-weapon design in which a primary fission explosion ignites a secondary fusion stage. If any radionuclides have leaked from the test site, we\u2019ll get a better picture of the explosion, but that could be some weeks away.<\/p>\n

Still, the big conclusions are relatively straightforward. First, North Korea\u2019s nuclear capabilities are no longer constrained to the detonation of relatively low-yield fission devices. The days are over when we could depict the North Korean nuclear program as merely the equivalent of the US program in 1945. Second, when the results from the sixth nuclear test are placed alongside the large strides that Pyongyang has made recently in ballistic-missile development, we\u2019re fast approaching a crunch point where something must be done to corral the North\u2019s nuclear arsenal. A fresh bout of hand-wringing and garment-rending\u2014even another bout of sanctions\u2014is probably not going to give us much leverage on the problem.<\/p>\n

Each test, whether of missile or nuclear weapon, gradually builds North Korea\u2019s capacities. True, none of the individual tests is a back-breaker by itself. But the broader programs are breaking the back of global and regional order. That\u2019s because a North Korea equipped with nuclear-armed ICBMs is simply unacceptable. It\u2019s unacceptable at the global level because a pariah state can\u2019t be allowed to hold a sword over the head of the international community. And at the regional level, an emboldened North Korea will destabilise Northeast Asia\u2014corroding the US\u2019s Asian alliances and likely begetting a new wave of proliferation by latent nuclear states.<\/p>\n

In brief, if North Korea keeps going down the path it\u2019s currently taking, the outcomes are intolerable. A North Korea that had a slow-moving nuclear-weapons program boasting only limited reach was a tolerable threat. Regional nuclear competitions are relatively common\u2014not to the point where we can become blas\u00e9 about them, true, but still relatively common. Today\u2019s North Korea has morphed into something much more deadly. It\u2019s the sole nuclear-armed state outside the P5 that seeks intercontinental-range destructive capabilities. And yet it\u2019s the nuclear-armed non-P5 state with the least equity in the international order.<\/p>\n

Some argue that North Korea seeks nuclear weapons because of insecurity; that it\u2019s fear of attack and invasion that\u2019s the principal driver of Pyongyang\u2019s WMD programs. Frankly, that argument\u2019s not convincing. Security concerns might be sufficient to drive a small nuclear-weapons program, but not the one that now confronts us. Rather, Pyongyang seeks nuclear weapons as a status symbol, as the price of entry to the only one of the world\u2019s exclusive clubs to which it might actually gain admittance. ICBM-equipped nuclear powers number only four: the US, Russia, China and North Korea. Kim Jong-un seeks international recognition on the basis of the only achievement his regime can boast\u2014the development of a capability to pull down the global order on a day of his choosing.<\/p>\n

Reversing that development is now an issue of urgency. I\u2019d like to think that doing so might offer an occasion for international cooperation, because responsible great powers should share the judgement that having intercontinental-range nuclear weapons in the hands of a pariah state is an unacceptable condition. Still, the prevailing geopolitical winds scarcely seem conducive to such an outcome. And there\u2019s a fair degree of slack in the steering wheel of US global leadership with President Trump in the White House.<\/p>\n

But if we\u2019re prepared to admit North Korea into the ranks of the world\u2019s ICBM-equipped states, what\u2019s the basis for denying that status to any future proliferator? Some years back, Robert O\u2019Neill observed that \u2018the bomb\u2019 had successfully escaped the hands of first the superpowers, and then the great powers, to come to rest in the hands of the world\u2019s underdogs<\/a>. Accepting that the underdogs can wreak nuclear havoc at intercontinental ranges seems to drag us even closer to the abyss.<\/p>\n

In one important respect, of course, nothing has changed after the sixth nuclear test: we still don\u2019t have any easy options for reversing North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile programs. Kinetic options look costly, non-kinetic options ineffective. But doing nothing will be worse. A crisis postponed is not necessarily a crisis averted. A future North Korea would have more and better nuclear warheads, greater numbers of delivery vehicles, and proven nuclear technologies ready to be sold to the highest bidder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s sixth nuclear test is easily its most impressive. The fifth\u2014in September last year\u2014involved the detonation of a device similar in yield to the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The latest …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":34019,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33,1998,86,85,1997],"class_list":["post-34018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-capability","tag-icbm","tag-north-korea","tag-nuclear-test","tag-proliferation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNorth Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North Korea\u2019s sixth nuclear test is easily its most impressive. The fifth\u2014in September last year\u2014involved the detonation of a device similar in yield to the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The latest ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-09-04T20:00:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-09-04T06:31:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"808\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"569\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg\",\"width\":808,\"height\":569},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/\",\"name\":\"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-09-04T20:00:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-09-04T06:31:26+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\",\"name\":\"Rod Lyon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Rod Lyon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist","og_description":"North Korea\u2019s sixth nuclear test is easily its most impressive. The fifth\u2014in September last year\u2014involved the detonation of a device similar in yield to the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The latest ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2017-09-04T20:00:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-09-04T06:31:26+00:00","og_image":[{"width":808,"height":569,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Rod Lyon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Rod Lyon","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DPRK_20170903_ai.pdf-first-page.jpg","width":808,"height":569},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/","name":"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2017-09-04T20:00:23+00:00","dateModified":"2017-09-04T06:31:26+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-slouching-towards-bethlehem\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd","name":"Rod Lyon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Rod Lyon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34018"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34018"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34018\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34020,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34018\/revisions\/34020"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}