{"id":34418,"date":"2017-09-26T14:45:02","date_gmt":"2017-09-26T04:45:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=34418"},"modified":"2017-09-26T14:45:02","modified_gmt":"2017-09-26T04:45:02","slug":"trump-risks-an-own-goal-with-his-iran-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trump-risks-an-own-goal-with-his-iran-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump risks an \u2018own goal\u2019 with his Iran strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

With the Trump administration stepping up its efforts to undermine the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran\u2019s nuclear activities over recent weeks, Iran may soon face some difficult choices on how to respond to increasing US belligerence. Non-certification by Trump in October is likely despite the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has again found Iran to be in compliance<\/a> with its obligations under the agreement. It\u2019s clear from Trump\u2019s address to the UN General Assembly<\/a> on 19 September that the White House is not only determined to wind back the clock on engagement with Iran on its nuclear activities, but also to portray Iran as a \u2018rogue state\u2019 comparable to North Korea.<\/p>\n

Iran has been relatively constrained in its responses to Trump and appears determined to promote the narrative that it won\u2019t be responsible if the JCPOA collapses. In August, President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran<\/a> could restart its nuclear program<\/a> in a matter of \u2018hours\u2019 should the US impose further sanctions, and Iran has claimed that the US is already in breach of the agreement. And in mid-September, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran wouldn\u2019t be bullied by the US and would react strongly to any \u2018wrong move\u2019 by Washington on the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

Increasing US hostility towards the JCPOA and Iran will likely undermine the broad support the agreement has had within Iran. Khamenei\u2019s original endorsement of the JCPOA was conditional on sanctions<\/a> relief, and recent statements by both Khamenei and Rouhani indicate that new sanctions remain a red line. Rouhani responded to Trump\u2019s UN speech by stating that the JCPOA can\u2019t be renegotiated<\/a> and won\u2019t continue without the US. That\u2019s a much harder line than that taken by Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi, a key negotiator on the JCPOA, who had previously noted that Iran may remain committed to the JCPOA in the event of a US withdrawal<\/a>, if the other JCPOA parties remain committed. But hardliners within Iran are already targeting Rouhani\u2014who was re-elected with a comfortable margin despite predictions that the JCPOA would affect his prospects\u2014for not dealing with the issue of sanctions firmly enough<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s belligerence also diminishes the prospect for IAEA access to military sites such as Parchin, which has been flagged as something that the IAEA needs to incorporate in future verification activities<\/a>. Iran has so far ruled out IAEA access to military facilities, a position that IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano has challenged, but US threats will harden Iran\u2019s resolve on the issue.<\/p>\n

Iran likely relishes the fact that the US\u2019s posture on the JCPOA is out of sync<\/a> with other parties\u2019 views on it, and Iran will exploit that to its own advantage. But it must also be alarmed by the White House\u2019s increasingly strident rhetoric, which confirms Iran\u2019s belief that the administration\u2019s policy is based on deep-seated anti-Iran sentiment and a desire for regime change.<\/p>\n

Worryingly for Iran, Trump\u2019s animosity is unlikely to be tempered by key advisers, and the likely non-certification of the JCPOA appears to be the first step in a tougher approach to Iran. Trump\u2019s appointment of Mike Pompeo\u2014who as a congressman opposed any type of agreement with Iran<\/a>\u2014as CIA director means that Trump may succeed in constructing a politicised intelligence case<\/a> for action against Iran. While Defense Secretary James Mattis has been more moderate in his views on the JCPOA, he has also long been hawkish on Iran.<\/p>\n

But the portrayal of Iran by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and others as an aggressive state seeking hegemony in the Middle East is misleading and ignores a key element in Iran\u2019s foreign policy\u2014a deep-seated sense of strategic isolation. The Iranian leadership sees itself as acting defensively rather than offensively<\/a>, and its strategic posture is informed by a number of factors<\/a>\u2014a lack of meaningful alliances, a sense of vulnerability and isolation in a tumultuous region, and increasing encirclement by US troops and bases.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s actions have typically focused on providing support to co-religionists in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen to disrupt perceived threats to Iran\u2019s interests, and are best characterised as focused on survival in a hostile world<\/a>. Nevertheless, Iran has shown itself to be capable of constructive engagement with neighbours. Oman, for example, enjoys a largely positive relationship with Iran after recognising what others have not: that engaging with Iran can be mutually beneficial<\/a>. Iran was also amenable to a recent approach from Qatar, long vehemently opposed to Iran, on the restoration of diplomatic relations following the boycott of Qatar by other Gulf states in June.<\/p>\n

Iran has clearly managed to leverage the conflicts in Iraq and Syria to advance its strategic interests across the Middle East. But the contentious question of whether those gains presage the establishment of an \u2018Iran order\u2019 in the Middle East\u2014as claimed by Iran\u2019s opponents\u2014doesn\u2019t diminish the importance of the JCPOA to security in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s white-anting of the agreement and hostile posture towards Iran does little more than feed and justify Iran\u2019s deep-seated paranoid world view, and risks more than just the success of the JCPOA. President Rouhani and others have spent considerable political capital\u2014and risked the ire of hardliners \u2014with their commitment to the JCPOA. The failure of the JCPOA would likely weaken the position of relatively moderate factions within Iran.<\/p>\n

In this context, Trump\u2019s conflation of Iran and North Korea is troubling and unjustifiable. North Korea represents a dramatic failure by the international non-proliferation regime, whereas Iran and the JCPOA have the potential to be one of its greatest successes. Should the JCPOA fail at a time when Iran is facing broad threats from an increasingly ill-disposed US (and an increasingly aggressive Saudi Arabia intent on escalating its strategic competition with Iran<\/a>), then Iran may start debating some difficult questions regarding how best to guarantee its security.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the Trump administration stepping up its efforts to undermine the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran\u2019s nuclear activities over recent weeks, Iran may soon face some difficult choices on how to respond …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":624,"featured_media":34424,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,247,1883,423,31],"class_list":["post-34418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-nuclear-strategy","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump risks an \u2018own goal\u2019 with his Iran strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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