{"id":34701,"date":"2017-10-10T11:00:18","date_gmt":"2017-10-10T00:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=34701"},"modified":"2017-10-10T11:00:18","modified_gmt":"2017-10-10T00:00:18","slug":"president-trump-iran-and-the-joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/president-trump-iran-and-the-joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action\/","title":{"rendered":"President Trump, Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

During his 19 September address<\/a> at the UN, President Trump criticised the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the E3\/EU+3 (China, France, Germany, the UK, Russia, the US and the EU).<\/p>\n

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has acknowledged<\/a> that Iran is in technical compliance with the JCPOA, but has added that Iran\u2019s destabilising behaviour in the broader Middle East casts doubt on its overall commitment to the deal and that it\u2019s only one among a range of issues involving Iran that the US is dealing with.<\/p>\n

This approach from the Trump administration comes as no surprise, as it\u2019s playing to Trump\u2019s domestic base. Political and military elites in the US see Iran as an enemy\u2014one that the US has been virtually at war with for 38 years. There\u2019s little US domestic interest in moving away from that position, or from the constancy that it gives to Washington\u2019s relations with its Gulf allies. This mindset places the US at odds with European powers, Russia and China.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration must become more sophisticated. The JCPOA is about preventing a spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); it isn\u2019t about an aligned foreign policy. It\u2019s designed to ensure the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran\u2019s nuclear program, and permits Iran to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).<\/p>\n

That the JCPOA was the Obama administration\u2019s paramount foreign policy achievement also makes this a domestic issue for the Trump administration. At the signing of the deal and again during the Republican Party nomination process, Republican anger against the agreement was extensive.<\/p>\n

However, lead among the myriad threats to the strategic dynamics in the Middle East is a spread of WMDs, and the JCPOA is a significant bulwark against that. Despite domestic support for Trump\u2019s position, his stance diminishes US credibility globally, as it is duplicitous. Pakistan and India aren\u2019t parties to the NPT\u2014and then we have Israel, which isn\u2019t a party to any of the major treaties governing WMDs.<\/p>\n

Another uncomfortable fact for the US is that the Middle East faces persistent terrorism from both Shia and Sunni forces. The region remains the global epicentre of terrorism, complicated by quasi-states. The failure of the Arab Spring, the resulting huge numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, and the lack of economic prospects for an ever-increasing youth population further improve the conditions for terrorist recruitment.<\/p>\n

This is worsened by the strategic confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.\u00a0 Both use the sectarian divide between Shia and Sunni to further their power and influence. Their confrontation provides the political and societal elements to the sectarian tensions that have erupted in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The JCPOA can assist in bringing Iran back into line with the international community. Importantly, Europe has seen that the deal works. Europe has zero appetite for a new cascade of conflicts in a region on its doorstep. Equally, Australia should be strong in stating its support for the JCPOA and its disagreement with the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

The election of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in 2013 and again in 2017 offers a glimmer of hope. While hardliners retain powerful tools to deny him any major achievements, he\u2019s keen to see the nuclear deal survive. He needs it to stimulate the sluggish Iranian economy and deradicalise the country. However, his government needs to temper Iranian public expectations. His reform program will be damaged severely if the Trump administration withdraws from the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

Despite any reforms Iran may make, Arab states\u2019 distrust of Tehran will remain because the politics in the Middle East is dominated by security issues. If Saudi Arabia feels that the JCPOA helps Iran to again become the dominant state in the region, issues will get increasingly complicated.<\/p>\n

Indeed, since Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud ascended to the Saudi Arabian throne in 2015, he has made profound changes in the leadership of the kingdom, driving an effort to re-establish his country\u2019s clout. The king has moved forcefully to challenge the expanding regional influence of Iran, most publicly by embarking on a war against the Houthis in Yemen, while Iran is playing a countering role in Syria.<\/p>\n

We need to consider the impacts if the JCPOA were to collapse, and none would be good. Iran would most probably recommence its presumed nuclear program, and Saudi Arabia\u2019s nuclear ambitions would be fuelled. Hardliners in both countries would gain in authority. Iran\u2019s army would continue to modernise, including with potentially nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Escalated tensions and conflict are all but inevitable in this scenario. The collapse of the agreement might drive the US to consider a military option, and Israel might be the first to react and pre-emptively attack, which could lead to a generalised regional conflict.<\/p>\n

Australia must do all it can to moderate Trump\u2019s aversion to Iran and the JCPOA. His speech at the UN was dangerous. The Trump administration can\u2019t seem to move past the last 38\u00a0years. Hardliners in the Middle East will benefit from this, to the detriment of the peoples of the Middle East and other countries, including Australia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During his 19 September address at the UN, President Trump criticised the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the E3\/EU+3 (China, France, Germany, the UK, Russia, the US and the EU). 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