{"id":34753,"date":"2017-10-12T06:00:17","date_gmt":"2017-10-11T19:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=34753"},"modified":"2017-10-11T14:46:03","modified_gmt":"2017-10-11T03:46:03","slug":"flying-the-swedish-flag-for-a-submarine-plan-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/flying-the-swedish-flag-for-a-submarine-plan-b\/","title":{"rendered":"Flying the (Swedish) flag for a submarine Plan B"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

My previous post<\/a> on the future submarines talked about having a Plan B in case the project runs into insurmountable problems. In his response<\/a>, Jon Stanford seconded the need for an insurance policy. So on that we are agreed\u2014but we differ markedly on what it should look like.<\/p>\n

Jon reiterated the case for a modified military-off-the-shelf (MMOTS) solution, as found in the recent Insight Economics report<\/a> (PDF). If I thought that was possible, I might even sign up to it. But a modified design isn\u2019t \u2018military off the shelf\u2019, and the changes required to extend the range and endurance of a submarine engineered with a delicate balance of weight and volume aren\u2019t likely to be easy. (Recall Gumley\u2019s Law that MOTS + MOTS \u2260 MOTS<\/a>.) So MMOTS isn\u2019t low risk, which is what we want in insurance for a risky project.<\/p>\n

Delivery of even genuinely MOTS submarines typically takes five to 10 years from contract signature\u2014it\u2019s not like there\u2019s unused submarine construction capacity out there. We\u2019d have to take our place in the queue behind other customers and home navies, so we\u2019d be well into Plan B before we knew whether we were really going to need it. Ideally, Plan B is a backup to turn to only if needed. It would be wasteful to commit resources to it early, only to later find that it wasn\u2019t required.<\/p>\n

Another problem is that it would require the Australian navy to transition between classes of submarines twice\u2014once from Collins to the MMOTS boat, and then to the future submarines when they are delivered (or, worse, simultaneously if the MMOTS schedule slips even a little). That\u2019s a big ask of the navy, and the transition from the Oberon class to the Collins showed that it takes a lot of time and manpower, and requires careful planning<\/a>. We didn\u2019t get it right back then, as shown by the subsequent decade of manning and sustainment problems in the Collins, so trying to do it twice in a decade would consume a lot of resources.<\/p>\n

One of the major motivations for advocating the MMOTS approach is concern about the cost and risk of a Collins life-of-type extension (LOTE). We don\u2019t have an authoritative figure for the LOTE, but Insight Economics suggests that it might cost $15 billion, which they say is \u2018equivalent to acquiring more than 15 new MOTS submarines\u2019. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s right. After all, they\u2019re not proposing buying MOTS boats, so our new boats would cost more to design and build. They\u2019d also come with all the extra training, facilities and logistics costs that accompany a new type. The price differential between MMOTS and LOTE would likely be smaller than Insight Economics assumes. In fact, if the MMOTS solution is to have useful range, surely it must resemble the German future submarine proposal, which was quoted at $20 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Collins boats have a performance suitable (though probably not optimal) for the tasks we set our submarine fleet, and we have sustainment and operational workforces that know how to maintain and deploy them effectively. The key question therefore becomes whether a Collins LOTE is workable, and some good judges think it is. John Coles, who conducted an extensive inquiry into support of the Collins class, went on the public record about the potential longevity of Collins in his first report in 2012<\/a> (PDF). The most recent Coles report (2016<\/a>; PDF) includes charts that assume a successful LOTE, and says that the indications are positive:<\/p>\n

At this stage there appears to be no technical impediment to continue to upgrade the class to retain regional superiority \u2026 [A] life extension for Collins is feasible provided the detailed analysis is carried out and the funding in the Defence Industry Investment Plan is applied.<\/p>\n

My preferred Plan B is to pursue the Collins LOTE with an eye to using it to prove technical solutions that could later be incorporated in a newly designed hull as a \u2018Collins mark 2\u2019. That\u2019s not a new idea, and I wrote about it in a paper six years ago<\/a> (excuse the title\u2014that was evidently during my regrettable Latin phase). It has the advantage of not requiring a new hull and systems to be developed and proven at the same time. And, since we\u2019ll need Collins around for a decade or more in any approach (including MMOTS), there\u2019s no escaping work on the fleet.<\/p>\n

Since ASPI\u2019s charter is to provide alternative ideas, here\u2019s one: we should get the Swedes involved in Collins work again. I know that won\u2019t be popular in some quarters. The relationship got untidy<\/a> last time, and such was the residual feeling around Canberra that Sweden didn\u2019t make the cut for the SEA 1000 competition, despite having designed our current submarines. But time moves on, and Kockums and the Swedish submarine program are now in the hands of Saab, a company with a global footprint that includes a substantial and successful presence here in Australia.<\/p>\n

Between ASC\u2019s hard-earned knowledge about the Collins and the submarine design capability of Saab, we\u2019d have both a nascent design capability (that, notably, we don\u2019t have to pay for unless we need it) and relevant local shipyard experience to build a \u2018son of Collins\u2019 if Plan A doesn\u2019t work out. And it\u2019s all dual use\u2014there\u2019s a big overlap between this Plan B and work needed on the Collins LOTE. If we wanted to go an extra step, we could even invest in the production design work for a Collins 2.0. That would have the benefit of introducing competition into the future submarine design phase, and focus Naval Group on delivering value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My previous post on the future submarines talked about having a Plan B in case the project runs into insurmountable problems. In his response, Jon Stanford seconded the need for an insurance policy. So on …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":34755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[253,529,304,223],"class_list":["post-34753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-collins-class","tag-maritime-capability","tag-royal-australian-navy","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFlying the (Swedish) flag for a submarine Plan B | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/flying-the-swedish-flag-for-a-submarine-plan-b\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Flying the (Swedish) flag for a submarine Plan B | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My previous post on the future submarines talked about having a Plan B in case the project runs into insurmountable problems. 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