{"id":35398,"date":"2017-11-10T06:00:25","date_gmt":"2017-11-09T19:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=35398"},"modified":"2017-11-09T17:47:13","modified_gmt":"2017-11-09T06:47:13","slug":"apec-trump-and-contested-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"APEC, Trump and contested Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In the first week of his marathon Asia tour, Donald Trump has made state visits to Japan, South Korea and China. Knowing that he can be easily swayed by over-the-top hospitality, China has even billed it as a \u2018state visit-plus\u2019<\/a>. Given the importance of these bilaterals, the white-hot tensions on the Korean peninsula and the crucial question of the tone and tenor of US\u2013China relations, it can be easily overlooked that the initial reason for the president\u2019s Asia trip was to take part in the regional summit season and, in particular, to attend the annual APEC leaders\u2019 meeting.<\/p>\n

Formally referred to as the Economic Leaders\u2019 Summit (APEC has member economies not states to overcome the difficulties of Taipei and Hong Kong joining as separate entities in the early 1990s), the annual gathering has become a fixture of the diplomatic calendar. Indeed, even though it hasn\u2019t really delivered much in the way of economic collaboration, its members still see attending an APEC summit as a useful expenditure of political leaders\u2019 time. It regularly attracts a high level of participation that the other regional bodies can\u2019t match. Crucially, it\u2019s the only multilateral mechanism which the Chinese president attends.<\/p>\n

What can we expect from the jamboree that was able to lure The Donald across the Pacific to the attractive coastal city of Da Nang?<\/p>\n

For nine months or so, US policy on Asia seemed to be at best on autopilot<\/a> and at worst suffering from neglect<\/a>. Prior to the tour, the White House finally set out a vision for the region<\/a> in which the US seeks to protect and promote a \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019. While not officially a continuation of Obama\u2019s \u2018pivot to Asia\u2019, maintaining the prevailing regional strategic and economic order in the face of China\u2019s rise is plainly Washington\u2019s goal. The challenge at APEC is how to square the lofty rhetoric of an economically open region with Trump\u2019s mercantilism.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect any meaningful policy movement on that at APEC. Signalling is all that\u2019s likely to be achieved. But even there, Trump\u2019s limited understanding of the economics of international trade means that, despite Washington\u2019s intent to use APEC to signal the constancy of its regional commitment, there are good prospects that the opposite will occur.<\/p>\n

At the only other large diplomatic gathering, the G20 in Hamburg, Trump showed his inexperience and poor feel for multilateral meetings. The US appeared both literally and metaphorically isolated from the rest of the group<\/a>, leading some to describe it as G19 + 1. APEC supporters fear a repeat performance from the US leader, who clearly doesn\u2019t like having to be one among many leaders. That\u2019s probably unlikely. Trump will be more experienced and will have come almost immediately from bilateral meetings with a number of other leaders. But it is a distinct risk that would damage both APEC and US leadership in the region.<\/p>\n

Trump won\u2019t be the only leader making his APEC debut; Korea\u2019s president Moon Jae-in, New Zealand\u2019s Jacinda Ardern, Taiwan\u2019s Tsai Ing-wen and Hong Kong\u2019s Carrie Lamb are all first-timers. Trump is also scheduled to have a range of bilateral meetings \u2018on the sidelines\u2019, including with Rodrigo Duterte and Malcolm Turnbull. This kind of diplomatic speed dating is one of APEC\u2019s enduring points of appeal.<\/p>\n

Yet Trump travels as a president under siege. Beset by historically low approval ratings<\/a> and a special prosecutor who has just indicted his former campaign chairman<\/a>, the contrast to Xi Jinping\u2019s domestic political fortunes couldn\u2019t be more stark. The general secretary of the Communist Party of China has buttressed his position atop Chinese politics and has laid out an ambitious vision for China\u2019s global role<\/a> at the 19th national party congress.<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping will give a keynote address at the meeting and is expected to use it to reiterate China\u2019s commitment to economic openness and a broader leadership position in the regional economy. While Xi won\u2019t couch it in explicitly competitive terms, he\u2019ll use APEC as another platform from which to project China\u2019s alternative regional order. Asia\u2019s multilateral mechanisms will be a forum for great-power competition. Even if it isn\u2019t overt or heated, the contest will be in plain sight.<\/p>\n

APEC was Trump\u2019s main excuse for going to the region, yet the impression is that it, and the other multilaterals, aren\u2019t a high priority for him. The forum may have been established to promote trade liberalisation, but its value is now as a diplomatic platform. On stage will be competing visions for Asia\u2019s future. Trump\u2019s belligerent rhetoric, poor strategy and prickly demeanour will stand in contrast to Xi\u2019s carefully modulated tone, avuncular attitude and highly strategic outlook. APEC won\u2019t be the place where Asia\u2019s future will be definitively determined, but it will show us how the competition is going.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the first week of his marathon Asia tour, Donald Trump has made state visits to Japan, South Korea and China. Knowing that he can be easily swayed by over-the-top hospitality, China has even billed …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":230,"featured_media":35401,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[558,52,294,1428,204],"class_list":["post-35398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-apec","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-donald-trump","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAPEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"APEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the first week of his marathon Asia tour, Donald Trump has made state visits to Japan, South Korea and China. Knowing that he can be easily swayed by over-the-top hospitality, China has even billed ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-11-09T19:00:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-11-09T06:47:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nick Bisley\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nick Bisley\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":480},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/\",\"name\":\"APEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-11-09T19:00:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-11-09T06:47:13+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/bfda428f2d821c87b05202a5bb4f3d4d\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"APEC, Trump and contested Asia\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/bfda428f2d821c87b05202a5bb4f3d4d\",\"name\":\"Nick Bisley\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a803c11618e4614ac29f036e1984c969?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a803c11618e4614ac29f036e1984c969?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Nick Bisley\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/nick-bisley\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"APEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"APEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist","og_description":"In the first week of his marathon Asia tour, Donald Trump has made state visits to Japan, South Korea and China. Knowing that he can be easily swayed by over-the-top hospitality, China has even billed ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2017-11-09T19:00:25+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-11-09T06:47:13+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":480,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Nick Bisley","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Nick Bisley","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/18802750550_b8073cfcbd_z.jpg","width":640,"height":480},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/","name":"APEC, Trump and contested Asia | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2017-11-09T19:00:25+00:00","dateModified":"2017-11-09T06:47:13+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/bfda428f2d821c87b05202a5bb4f3d4d"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/apec-trump-and-contested-asia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"APEC, Trump and contested Asia"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/bfda428f2d821c87b05202a5bb4f3d4d","name":"Nick Bisley","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a803c11618e4614ac29f036e1984c969?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a803c11618e4614ac29f036e1984c969?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Nick Bisley"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/nick-bisley\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35398"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/230"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35398"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35400,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35398\/revisions\/35400"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}