{"id":35599,"date":"2017-11-17T14:55:46","date_gmt":"2017-11-17T03:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=35599"},"modified":"2017-11-17T14:55:46","modified_gmt":"2017-11-17T03:55:46","slug":"aspi-suggests-66","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspi-suggests-66\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPI suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The world<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s summit season in Southeast Asia. This week all the big names of the Asia\u2013Pacific<\/a> descended on Vietnam and the Philippines for the 31st ASEAN Summit and related meetings (such as APEC and the East Asia Summit). The New York Times<\/em> thinks that, despite Trump\u2019s rhetoric, Japan is showing signs of nerves<\/a> about America\u2019s commitment to the region\u2014which probably wasn\u2019t helped by Donald Trump slipping out of summits early<\/a>. The<\/em> Diplomat<\/em>\u2019s Ankit Panda trumpets the return<\/a> of the Australia\u2013India\u2013Japan\u2013US quadrilateral after 10 years in the wilderness, and Grant Wyeth gives an Australian take<\/a> on \u2018the Quad\u2019.<\/p>\n

There are concerns<\/a> about President Trump\u2019s potential willingness to consider<\/a> first use of nuclear weapons in a preventive war against North Korea. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held hearings<\/a> on nuclear command and control this week. A key takeaway was that the US military can<\/em><\/a> refuse orders from the president if they\u2019re deemed illegal because they don\u2019t meet the conditions of \u2018military necessity, discrimination and proportionality\u2019, but what happens<\/a> then remains murky.<\/p>\n

With the army having taken control in Zimbabwe, The Economist<\/em> takes a look<\/a> at President Robert Mugabe\u2019s long career and lessons learnt from nearly four decades of poor policymaking and rampant corruption that have left Zimbabwe far worse off than when he assumed office.<\/p>\n

Saad al-Hariri\u2019s mystery resignation<\/a> as Lebanon\u2019s prime minister is still unresolved. Looking at the big picture, Lebanon remains caught in the crosshairs of Saudi\u2013Iranian tensions. Carnegie explores<\/a> Ashraf Rifi\u2019s bid to replace al-Hariri, which would likely ignite sectarian tensions as he hardens his pro-Sunni rhetoric, toeing the Saudi line. Whether or not Saudi Arabia has the ability to strategically exert influence in Lebanon to push back against Iranian proxies (namely, Hezbollah) is discussed in this excellent analysis from Stratfor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Two fascinating investigative pieces this week: \u2018Raqqa\u2019s dirty secret<\/a>\u2019 from the BBC exposes a deal that let hundreds of Islamic State fighters and their families escape while the coalition of US, British and Kurdish forces took control of the city. And \u2018The uncounted\u2019<\/a> from the New York Times<\/em> assesses the coalition\u2019s precision when conducting air strikes against IS targets and its reporting of alleged civilian casualties. The piece recounts the story of one man whose family was killed by coalition air strikes, and who\u2014like thousands of others\u2014wasn\u2019t documented in the reports. In addition, this brave interview<\/a> with Lynsey Addario explores the question of why there are still so few female war photographers.<\/p>\n

Some compelling new research on violent extremism and terrorism was published this week. First up, ICCT released a new paper on the scope and scale of Uighur foreign fighters<\/a>, a cohort of jihadists that is relatively understudied despite their links to the Taliban and other Islamist factions in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Second, Hassan Hassan\u2019s careful analysis<\/a> helps contextualise what \u2018IS 2.0\u2019 looks like, and how governments should prepare for the group\u2019s persistence as an insurgency, and Charlie Winter\u2019s expert commentary<\/a> on IS media-ops confirms that the problem of IS hasn\u2019t gone away, but it\u2019s just changed. Third, two pieces on the links between far right and Islamist extremism: Scott Atran<\/a> and Julia Ebner<\/a> separately discuss the appeal of countercultures, a \u2018vitriol against globalists\u2019 and parallel messaging strategies, as some of the connecting factors.<\/p>\n

This pretty cool experiment<\/a> enabled researchers to build a database from 4,000-year-old clay tablets, plugged it into an economic trade model, and used it to pinpoint the potential locations of 11 lost Bronze Age cities.<\/p>\n

Tech geek of the week<\/strong><\/p>\n

Want to get a look inside China\u2019s \u2018war room\u2019? The WarZone<\/a> has an interesting article on China\u2019s \u2018Joint Battle Command Centre\u2019 where Xi Jinping would run any future war from, including great imagery that a few years back would have been highly classified.<\/p>\n

Testing of the next thing in tilt rotor technology is underway, with Bell\u2019s V-280 Valor<\/a> almost ready for its first flight. Part of the US Army\u2019s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program<\/a>, the Valor offers aircraft-like speeds with the flexibility of the helicopter. Boeing and Sikorsky are also competing for FVL<\/a>, including with a future FVL-Attack platform that could replace the Apache attack helicopter.<\/p>\n

Finally, autonomous battlefield robots<\/a> are definitely coming. Efforts to ban them are so far ineffective, the technology is racing ahead, and there are no guarantees that our adversaries will agree to ban them.<\/p>\n

Videos and photo essay<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Economist<\/em> discusses<\/a> policy and legislative challenges facing European governments and the prospect of returning foreign fighters.<\/p>\n

{Warning: The following report contains distressing scenes, including explicit descriptions of sexual violence.} This BBC Newsnight report<\/a> investigates the story of the massacre of the Rohinga in the village of Tula Toli. It\u2019s distressing but important journalism.<\/p>\n

The New York Times<\/em> has published a photo essay this week commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For something different, this incredible time-lapse of Manhattan<\/a>, filmed over 352 hours, shows the city in its time cycles.<\/p>\n

Podcasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

On \u2018Between the Lines<\/a>\u2019 this week, Tom Switzer talks with British journalist Peter Oborne about the unfolding situation in Zimbabwe. He also discusses populism with Gyorgy Schopflin, a member of the European Parliament from Hungary\u2019s ruling party.<\/p>\n

The New York Times<\/em> brought Stephen Bannon \u2018behind enemy lines\u2019 for an interview this week. For an abridged version, check out \u2018The Daily\u2019<\/a> podcast; for the whole hog, go to \u2018The New Washington\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canberra, 20 November at 1130: Dr Karel \u010cada presents on Burkinis, slippery slope and Euroscepticism. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canberra, 20 November at 1700: \u00a0Ms Unni\u00a0Kl\u00f8vstad, the Norwegian ambassador to Australia, launches Professor Michael Wesley\u2019s new book, Global allies: comparing US alliances in the 21st century<\/em>. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canberra, 5 December at 1800: Hugh White will be giving a lecture to launch his quarterly essay Australia in the new Asia: without America<\/em>. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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