{"id":35998,"date":"2017-12-01T11:20:18","date_gmt":"2017-12-01T00:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=35998"},"modified":"2018-07-18T15:32:19","modified_gmt":"2018-07-18T05:32:19","slug":"foreign-policy-white-paper-2017-if-the-eu-is-vital-then","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/foreign-policy-white-paper-2017-if-the-eu-is-vital-then\/","title":{"rendered":"Foreign policy white paper 2017: if the EU is vital, then \u2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The 2017 foreign policy white paper<\/em><\/a> declares that a \u2018strong European Union (EU) remains vital to Australia\u2019s interests and will be an increasingly important partner in protecting and promoting a rules-based international order\u2019. But Europe faces serious internal and external problems, and it isn\u2019t fanciful to suggest that in a decade or so the supranational EU might not look the same.<\/p>\n

The EU\u2019s domestic political scene has become uncertain and volatile. Internal contradictions in the EU model\u2014exacerbated by the slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, mass unauthorised migration, and rising nationalism and nativism\u2014have fostered political fragmentation and the failure of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties in Europe.<\/p>\n

Reactionary political forces were on full display<\/a> in Poland recently as far-right nationalists, xenophobes and racists marched in their thousands. This was an extreme manifestation of the general political shift to the right<\/a> in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland, and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe. Europeans in general<\/a>, not just right-wing or nationalist groups, have concerns about loss of sovereignty and the current structure and performance of the EU. The desire for a return of decision-making to national governments is strong. This unrest is fuelled by growing income inequality<\/a> across the EU.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s significant variation in public opinion among the 28 EU member states on important issues. To see the EU simply as a single entity is misleading. Although recent surveys<\/a> show slight improvements in public attitudes towards EU institutions, in nine European states a majority of the population don\u2019t trust EU institutions. In five states, a majority have a negative view of globalisation, and over a third of all EU citizens perceive globalisation negatively. Politicians are acutely aware of these sentiments.<\/p>\n

Although the white paper expresses an awareness that in Europe \u2018doubts about openness to the world have grown, as have concerns about the effect of globalisation\u2014mainly immigration\u2014on cultural identity and social cohesion\u2019, it also holds out the prospect of negotiating \u2018an ambitious FTA with the European Union\u2019.<\/p>\n

Even without the problems outlined above, the history<\/a> of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the persistence of a substantial core<\/a> of an anti-free trade faction in the EU suggests that Australia shouldn\u2019t approach the FTA negotiations with any Pollyanna-ish optimism. The European Court of Justice has ruled<\/a> that any new trade agreement that goes beyond external tariff cuts, which is the case for all modern trade agreements, \u2018must be ratified not only by the European Parliament, but also by all national\u2014and some sub-national\u2014parliaments across the EU (39 in total)\u2019. That\u2019s a very high bar.<\/p>\n

As for external pressures, Russia continues to challenge the EU in a number of ways. By annexing the Crimean peninsula and encouraging ethnic Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated the EU\u2019s and NATO\u2019s impotence in defending Europe\u2019s interests on its eastern borders. The incorporation of Crimea is irreversible without a major war, and the Donetsk People\u2019s Republic<\/a> proto-state is becoming a reality on the ground. The EU\u2019s response to Russia is complicated by its reliance on Russian energy imports<\/a>. Vulnerable eastern European nations with significant Russian minorities or that border Russia look on with anxiety<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A new triple entente<\/a> involving Russia, Iran and Turkey is taking shape. From Murmansk on the Barents Sea to the Gulf of Oman, there\u2019s a wall of illiberal or undemocratic nations on the EU\u2019s eastern flank\u2014Russia, Belarus, Turkey and Iran\u2014with limited commitment to the current US-dominated rules-based international order. Turkey\u2019s rapprochement and Iran\u2019s cooperation with Russia are based on closely aligned and complementary interests in Syria, Iraq and the Gulf.<\/p>\n

The end of the war against the ISIS caliphate is opening up new fault lines<\/a> across the broader Middle East and encompassing the Levant and Asia Minor. Russia and the US are lining up with their clients, partners and allies in the struggle for dominance and influence. This is a struggle that EU members can\u2019t ignore because of colonial history and geographic proximity. The dilemmas cut awkwardly across traditional loyalties and associations for the Europeans. As Saudi Arabia (with Israeli support<\/a>) vies with Iran for regional supremacy, EU relations with Turkey continue to deteriorate over human rights, and differences persist with the US over the Iranian nuclear agreement.<\/p>\n

So, although it\u2019s not about to implode, the European Union confronts grave challenges and uncertainties. If the EU is indeed vital to Australia\u2019s interests, then Europe\u2019s overall trajectory should be of great concern to policymakers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 2017 foreign policy white paper declares that a \u2018strong European Union (EU) remains vital to Australia\u2019s interests and will be an increasingly important partner in protecting and promoting a rules-based international order\u2019. But Europe …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":36001,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1025,285,759,163],"class_list":["post-35998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-european-union","tag-foreign-policy","tag-globalisation","tag-russia","dinkus-foreign-policy-white-paper"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForeign policy white paper 2017: if the EU is vital, then \u2026? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/foreign-policy-white-paper-2017-if-the-eu-is-vital-then\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Foreign policy white paper 2017: if the EU is vital, then \u2026? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The 2017 foreign policy white paper declares that a \u2018strong European Union (EU) remains vital to Australia\u2019s interests and will be an increasingly important partner in protecting and promoting a rules-based international order\u2019. 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