{"id":36299,"date":"2017-12-13T12:30:56","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T01:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=36299"},"modified":"2017-12-16T11:28:13","modified_gmt":"2017-12-16T00:28:13","slug":"what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/","title":{"rendered":"What can we expect from Indonesia\u2019s new defence chief?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Last weekend, Air Marshall Hadi Tjahjanto became the new Indonesian military (TNI) commander. It was one of the fastest confirmation processes in recent memory\u2014Tjahjanto was nominated by President Joko \u2018Jokowi\u2019 Widodo on 4 December and took over the command<\/a> from General Gatot Nurmantyo five days later.<\/p>\n

What can we expect from the new commander?<\/p>\n

On the one hand, a TNI commander from the air force is almost unprecedented. Since 1945, the Indonesian military has had 20 commanders (if we count the brief tenure of the chair of the Joint Staff from 1955 to 1962). Sixteen of them were from the army, while the navy and air force each had two.<\/p>\n

Since 1998, there has been only one TNI commander from the air force, Air Marshall Djoko Suyanto (2006\u201307). But he had the shortest run in the post-Suharto era (22 months) and focused mainly on laying the groundwork for the government\u2019s takeover of TNI\u2019s business activities.<\/p>\n

That means we don\u2019t have a good benchmark for what an air force TNI commander might seek to accomplish, or for how the army-dominated organisation might behave under his command. And Tjahjanto is only 54 years old, so he could serve until 2021. If he serves the full four years, he\u2019ll have the longest tenure of all post-Suharto TNI commanders since the legendary General Endriartono Sutarto (2002\u201306).<\/p>\n

On the other hand, it\u2019s safe to assume that, despite Suharto\u2019s efforts to \u2018centralise\u2019 the doctrine, ideas and historiography of all three services<\/a>, inter-service cultural differences can\u2019t be ignored. An air force TNI commander should, in theory, be less concerned about antiquated internal security threats than he is about the changing regional environment or the decaying state of TNI\u2019s infrastructure, hardware and weaponry.<\/p>\n

We should expect Tjahjanto, at the very least, to put the \u2018minimum essential force\u2019 back at the centre of defence policy. The development of air force bases, improvements to the country\u2019s radar and satellite systems, and the arrival of new aircraft could come to the fore, along with improvement in military aviation safety (which he promised<\/a> as air force chief).<\/p>\n

During his hearing, Tjahjanto said that he\u2019ll focus on<\/a> the changing global order, terrorism, cyberwar, China\u2019s rise and activities in the South China Sea, and maritime security. Given the close personal history<\/a> between Jokowi and Tjahjanto, some believe<\/a> that focusing on those areas can strengthen the president\u2019s global maritime fulcrum doctrine. The \u2018externally oriented\u2019 agenda also suggests a shift away from the previous leadership\u2019s focus on antiquated notions of \u2018proxy warfare\u2019 and \u2018state defence\u2019.<\/p>\n

But we should be cautiously optimistic on that front. The French-trained<\/a> Tjahjanto, unlike previous air force chiefs, was not a fighter-jet pilot (he has flown light aircraft). He had several base commands but obtained his first star as the training director of the National Search and Rescue Agency in 2011. In fact, Tjahjanto\u2019s rise to TNI chief surprised some<\/a> of his superiors in the air force.<\/p>\n

He is also considered a relatively junior TNI commander\u2014similar to Tito Karnavian, who was appointed Indonesia\u2019s national police chief last year at the age of 51. Tjahjanto represents the military academy class of 1986, and must tread carefully since many of his seniors (from the classes of 1983\u201385) will remain within the TNI. After all, conservative tendencies among \u00a0the current generation of TNI leaders<\/a> aren\u2019t uniquely attributable to Nurmantyo, the outgoing TNI commander.<\/p>\n

Thus, we shouldn\u2019t expect fundamental changes or path-breaking policies during Tjahjanto\u2019s tenure, at least until after the 2019 elections. His first priorities will be to consolidate his rule, maintain the TNI\u2019s political neutrality, and make security preparations for next year\u2019s direct local elections and the general elections in 2019.<\/p>\n

We should anticipate several waves of senior TNI officer rotations and appointments next year to that effect. Tjahjanto would need to appoint his own trusted officers to have a fresh start. The first step would be a review of the last round of senior officer appointments<\/a> Nurmantyo signed off on on 4 December.<\/p>\n

Finally, as far as civil\u2013military relations go, we should expect a more cordial, if not a closer and more productive, relationship between the commander and president. For the first time, Jokowi will have a trusted TNI commander<\/a> that he has carefully chosen and has a good personal rapport with. His first commander, General Moeldoko (2013\u201315), had been appointed during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono\u2019s administration. And his rocky relationship with Nurmantyo (2015\u201317) is well documented<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That being said, it\u2019s less clear whether, and to what extent, the president might be more hands-on and personally invested in shaping defence or strategic policies.<\/p>\n

In any case, while it\u2019s safe to expect that civil\u2013military relations will now have a different tune, the structural barriers suggest we shouldn\u2019t expect an entirely different song.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last weekend, Air Marshall Hadi Tjahjanto became the new Indonesian military (TNI) commander. It was one of the fastest confirmation processes in recent memory\u2014Tjahjanto was nominated by President Joko \u2018Jokowi\u2019 Widodo on 4 December and …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":225,"featured_media":36306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8,377,931,408],"class_list":["post-36299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-indonesia","tag-joko-widodo","tag-jokowi","tag-tni"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat can we expect from Indonesia\u2019s new defence chief? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What can we expect from Indonesia\u2019s new defence chief? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last weekend, Air Marshall Hadi Tjahjanto became the new Indonesian military (TNI) commander. It was one of the fastest confirmation processes in recent memory\u2014Tjahjanto was nominated by President Joko \u2018Jokowi\u2019 Widodo on 4 December and ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-12-13T01:30:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-12-16T00:28:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/Hadi-2.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"636\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"405\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Evan Laksmana\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Evan Laksmana\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/Hadi-2.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/Hadi-2.png\",\"width\":636,\"height\":405},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-can-we-expect-from-indonesias-new-defence-chief\/\",\"name\":\"What can we expect from Indonesia\u2019s new defence chief? 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