{"id":36343,"date":"2017-12-14T06:00:03","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T19:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=36343"},"modified":"2017-12-13T17:48:24","modified_gmt":"2017-12-13T06:48:24","slug":"xi-unbound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/xi-unbound\/","title":{"rendered":"Xi unbound"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

China has defied expectations yet again. President Xi Jinping, the chief of the Chinese Communist Party, was widely expected to face his toughest test so far in October, when the CCP convened its 19th National Congress to choose its next leadership. Though Xi was guaranteed a second five-year term, it was thought that he would run into serious opposition if he refused to appoint a successor. But he did just that\u2014and the opposition never materialised.<\/p>\n

The reason is simple: Xi was prepared. Since taking office in 2012, he has carried out a sustained crackdown on civil society, unleashing a wave of repression few thought would be possible in post-Mao China. He also pursued a large-scale anti-corruption campaign, which constrained and even eliminated potential political rivals, thereby enabling him to consolidate his power swiftly.<\/p>\n

Early this year, when Chinese security agents abducted Xiao Jianhua, a China-born Hong Kong\u2013based billionaire, to serve as a potential witness against senior leaders, any remaining resistance to Xi\u2019s push for greater authority was decimated. Nonetheless, to strengthen his position further in the run-up to the congress, a sitting Politburo member who was viewed as a possible successor was abruptly arrested on corruption charges in July.<\/p>\n

When the congress finally arrived, Xi capitalised on this momentum to install two of his allies in the Politburo Standing Committee, the party\u2019s top decision-making body. And, by preventing the CCP from designating a successor, he has opened the door to a third term in 2022.<\/p>\n

Judging by any conventional measure, Xi has thus emerged from 2017 more powerful than ever. The question now is whether he can use that power to translate his vision for China\u2014particularly for its economy\u2014into reality.<\/p>\n

On this front, Xi made important progress in his first term, single-handedly corralling the Chinese bureaucracy to implement his ambitious but risky \u2018Belt and Road Initiative\u2019 (BRI). That plan entails the use of Chinese financing, materials and expertise to build infrastructure linking countries throughout Asia, Africa and Europe to the global economic juggernaut that China has become.<\/p>\n

But, even with his significantly augmented power, Xi\u2019s continued success in implementing his economic vision is uncertain, at best, owing precisely to the ideological indoctrination and repression that underpin his authority. Despite the propaganda blitz lauding his vision for China, it is doubtful that many Chinese, including CCP members, really believe that their country\u2019s future lies in a centralised, fear-based authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n

In fact, while overt resistance to Xi\u2019s vision is difficult to find\u2014it is, after all, exceedingly dangerous nowadays\u2014passive resistance is pervasive. And Xi\u2019s toughest opponents are not members of China\u2019s tiny dissident community, but rather the party bureaucrats who have borne the brunt of his anti-corruption drive, not just losing considerable illicit income and advantages, but also being subjected to unrelenting dread of politicised investigations.<\/p>\n

Unless Xi can regain the support of the party\u2019s mid- and lower-level officials, his plan to remake China could fizzle out. After all, however powerful he might be, he cannot escape the reality captured by the ancient Chinese adage, \u2018Mountains are high and the emperor is far away.\u2019 And, without the promise of sufficient material reward, China\u2019s apparatchiks may subscribe to the logic that prevailed among citizens of the former Soviet bloc countries: \u2018We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.\u2019<\/p>\n

Beyond a recalcitrant bureaucracy, Xi might confront a serious challenge from the so-called Youth League faction of the CCP, affiliated with former president Hu Jintao. With two seats on the new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee being held by prot\u00e9g\u00e9s of Hu, a power struggle between the Youth League and Xi\u2019s faction cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n

Of course, it is possible that Xi can overcome resistance from the Youth League. After all, he has already largely vanquished the faction connected to former president Jiang Zemin, which previously constituted the most powerful rival group within the CCP. But even if Xi subdues the Youth League, he will be left with a regime that is more fractured and dispirited.<\/p>\n

Xi also faces significant policy challenges. On the economic front, he will have to contend with soaring debts and overcapacity, which, together with a shift towards protectionism in President Donald Trump\u2019s America, could depress growth further. In foreign policy, too, Xi will confront a deteriorating relationship with the United States, fueled by the intensifying North Korean nuclear threat and China\u2019s own aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

The new conventional wisdom is that Xi will be able to steamroll his colleagues in 2022, regardless of his performance in the coming five years. This might be true. But political authority is ephemeral, especially for leaders who lack a solid economic track record. For now, Xi and his supporters have reason to celebrate. But they should not count on raising their glasses in five years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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