{"id":36485,"date":"2017-12-19T14:30:29","date_gmt":"2017-12-19T03:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=36485"},"modified":"2017-12-19T12:30:24","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T01:30:24","slug":"new-nuclear-pessimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-nuclear-pessimism\/","title":{"rendered":"A new nuclear pessimism"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The ANU\u2019s College of Asia and the Pacific recently published a small volume of essays titled Nuclear Asia<\/a><\/em>. With North Korea\u2019s nuclear exploits featuring prominently in the headlines over the past 12 months, the issue is certainly topical. And in the 17 essays that make up this volume, the ANU\u2019s editors have tried to ensure both a broad range of subject matter and a diversity of opinion among their authors. But there\u2019s an undeniable bleakness to many of the contributions. Indeed, it\u2019s a publication intended<\/em> to worry the reader. It explores a number of unsettling trends. And, as Michael Wesley makes plain in his opening chapter, the \u2018main purpose [of the current volume] is to try to bring the dangers of these trends much more public and policy attention\u2019.<\/p>\n

True, there are nuclear dangers in Asia. Still, they need to be set alongside the strengths of the Asian nuclear order\u2014the overall story isn\u2019t one of unrelieved gloom. Since the late 1990s, the concept of a \u2018second nuclear age\u2019 has helped to paint a depressing picture of Asia\u2019s nuclear dynamics. It portrays\u2014in sharp contrast to the first nuclear age\u2014a world of multiple nuclear players: some impoverished or inclined to ready use of weapons of mass destruction, few with robust conventional forces or reliable systems for command and control, and many driven by nationalism rather than game-theory logic. The second nuclear age, forecast Paul Bracken, would see \u2018fire in the East<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

That might yet prove right. But so far, it hasn\u2019t. If we\u2019re going to get an accurate picture of the Asian nuclear order, we need to balance that portrayal with an understanding that other forces are also at play. Asia\u2019s nuclear order turns heavily upon the notion of voluntary self-restraint. That restraint can be seen in the general slowness of Asian nuclear programs, their small arsenal sizes, the relative absence of nuclear arms races, the recessed character of most Asian deterrence settings, and the fact that most Asian nuclear-weapon states are still developing countries with economic priorities.<\/p>\n

The essay by Brendan Taylor and David Envall\u2014on why the arms-race model doesn\u2019t fit well in today\u2019s Asian nuclear dynamics\u2014is a sober and nicely constructed piece that does pay appropriate regard to the stabilising features of the regional order. Their chapter hews rigorously to a close definition of \u2018arms racing\u2019 and is measured and thoughtful\u2014a useful reminder that even though voluntary self-restraint\u2019s under pressure, a valuable residue remains.<\/p>\n

So why is the overall mood so much darker? North Korea is obviously a major part of the answer. Kim Jong-un hasn\u2019t looked self-restrained in 2017. The pace and scope of Pyongyang\u2019s nuclear and missile programs have been deeply troubling. But President Trump has also contributed to the darkening of the nuclear mood, and the statements of some senior figures in his administration have done little to dampen concerns.<\/p>\n

The overall effect has been to make more immediate a set of worries which had previously been seen primarily through a more abstract, academic lens. For example, several of Nuclear Asia<\/em>\u2019s authors take exception to the fact that advanced conventional weapons are increasingly intruding upon the nuclear realm, with destabilising consequences. The claim\u2019s true, of course. Ballistic missile defences, long-range precision-guided munitions, and offensive cyber operations are making strategic nuclear balances complex and escalation ladders complicated. But if we\u2019re ever going to see nuclear disarmament, conventional weapons have to take over those key deterrence and defensive missions now performed by nuclear ones. Keeping the realms separate\u2014and how do we do that exactly?\u2014isn\u2019t going to work.<\/p>\n

Besides, accepting the inevitable intrusion of advanced conventional weapons into the nuclear realm is part of the cure for the affliction that Tanya Ogilvie-White, in her essay, labels \u2018nuclear fatalism\u2019. Nuclear fatalism, she argues, reflects a mood of growing resignation that nuclear weapons are going to be around indefinitely, that disarmament diplomacy is feckless and nuclear war inevitable. If that\u2019s the definition, I\u2019m not sure I know many nuclear fatalists. Sure, nuclear weapons won\u2019t disappear anytime soon. But arms control remains a valuable exercise\u2014not least in helping to ensure that nuclear war isn\u2019t inevitable.<\/p>\n

Despite the new nuclear pessimism, we shouldn\u2019t succumb to a counsel of despair. The Asian nuclear order is stronger than it looks. The complexities of greater interaction between the nuclear and conventional domains have an upside\u2014they\u2019re the inevitable product of a strategic environment in which nuclear weapons have a smaller role. And the human race is not doomed to inevitable nuclear extermination. But\u2014and this is a big but\u2014neither have strategic competition and war disappeared from the world. The struggle for geopolitical pre-eminence and first-mover advantage continues. Strategy is not dead.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a challenging year for those keen to promote the broader nuclear ordering project. Let\u2019s hope 2018 brings better tidings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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