{"id":36866,"date":"2018-01-25T12:30:54","date_gmt":"2018-01-25T01:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=36866"},"modified":"2018-01-25T08:54:23","modified_gmt":"2018-01-24T21:54:23","slug":"trumps-iran-ultimatum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-iran-ultimatum\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#8217;s Iran ultimatum"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"455\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36868 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/trump-2023751_640.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/trump-2023751_640.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/trump-2023751_640-205x146.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In a public statement on 12 January, President Donald Trump again <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefings-statements\/statement-president-iran-nuclear-deal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">waived US sanctions<\/a> against Iran, keeping alive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), at least for now.<\/p>\n<p>Trump gave \u2018Europeans allies\u2019 120 days (until 12 May) to come up with a \u2018supplemental agreement\u2019 that \u2018impose[s] new multilateral sanctions if Iran develops or tests long-range missiles, thwarts inspections, or makes progress toward a nuclear weapon\u2019. He also said he intends to ask the US Congress to amend the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) to add similar controls to the conditions for granting future waivers.<\/p>\n<p>If the Europeans or Congress fail to meet his expectations, Trump insisted that he won\u2019t approve any more waivers.<\/p>\n<p>This is Trump\u2019s second attempt to revise the deal\u2019s terms. His demand in late 2017 that the JCPOA itself be changed to deliver his preferred outcomes was firmly rejected by all of the other signatories\u2014the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran. They insisted that the JCPOA wasn\u2019t negotiable, and that if the US withdrew and the agreement collapsed, security in the Middle East would deteriorate significantly.<\/p>\n<p>Trump didn\u2019t welcome that rejoinder and remains determined to get his way. His new approach leaves the JCPOA intact, but the arrangements would be substantially changed if his demands are met.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has identified \u2018four critical components\u2019 that must be included in the amended INARA:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International nuclear inspectors must be given immediate access to all sites requested, including military sites that haven\u2019t been accessible to date.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iran must \u2018never even come close to possessing a nuclear weapon\u2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The two conditions above mustn\u2019t have an expiry date\u2014\u2018My policy is to deny Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon \u2026 forever.\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There must be a provision stating \u2018that long-range missile and nuclear weapons programs are inseparable, and that Iran\u2019s development and testing of missiles should be subject to severe sanctions\u2019\u2014Iran has argued that its ballistic missiles are conventional defensive weapons only, unrelated to nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Trump also referred to 14 new sanctions to be imposed by the US. They primarily target individuals and organisations that were involved in supressing the recent demonstrations in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Who might sign the supplemental agreement isn\u2019t clear. Trump expects the UK, France and Germany to sign. Iran won\u2019t be invited to sign; nor, apparently, will Russia and China. All three would most probably refuse to do so anyway, especially Iran. Whether other European countries deemed \u2018allies\u2019 will be invited to sign remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<p>Trump made it very clear that he expects \u2018all our allies\u2019 to join with the US in taking much stronger action \u2018to confront Iran\u2019s other malign activities\u2019. That would include cutting off funding to all organisations that contribute \u2018to Iran\u2019s support for terrorism\u2019, designating Hezbollah\u2014\u2018in its entirety\u2019\u2014a terrorist organisation, and deterring \u2018Iran\u2019s aggression against international shipping\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>US Secretary of State <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/tillerson-to-embark-european-tour\/28987816.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rex Tillerson is visiting Europe<\/a> this week, and Iran is reportedly high on his agenda. Tillerson will be doing the hard sell, and the Europeans will be doing a lot of listening.<\/p>\n<p>But according to European sources, there\u2019s concern that Trump is on a \u2018deal or no deal\u2019 crusade, regardless of the cost to others. The US doesn\u2019t have large-scale, long-term investments in Iran\u2014but the Europeans do. And they don\u2019t trust Trump. They\u2019ll be looking for ways to respond to his latest demands that don\u2019t compromise their interests or harm their relationship with the US. And they\u2019ll be asking their own tough questions. For example, who\u2019s going to umpire disputes over the definition of breaches of any revised agreement? Who will decide appropriate punitive action in the case of breaches?<\/p>\n<p>What about Iran? President Hassan Rouhani said in October last year that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-us-relations-tough-negotiations-lie-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">all deals are off if the JCPOA is torn up or neutered<\/a>. Trump\u2019s demands appear to do the latter. But Rouhani didn\u2019t rule out a separate agreement to the JCPOA. How will Iran assess the consequences of rejecting the new conditions? And if it\u2019s willing to negotiate with the Europeans (and Russia and China), on what terms?<\/p>\n<p>What effect the recent demonstrations in Iran will have on the government\u2019s thinking isn\u2019t known. Trump has sought to put the demonstrations\u2019 causes and the Iranian government\u2019s responses into the equation. His statement refers to the \u2018Supreme Leader and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [using] mass arrests and torture to oppress and silence Iran\u2019s people\u2019, \u2018the ruling elite [letting] their citizens go hungry while enriching themselves by stealing Iran\u2019s national wealth\u2019 and \u2018a regime that is stifling basic freedom and denying its citizens the opportunity to build better lives for their families\u2019. That Rouhani wasn\u2019t included in these derogatory comments suggests that Trump acknowledges that he\u2019s the key to managing a moderate outcome.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is well aware that his commitment to getting a new Iran deal will be observed closely, particularly on the Korean peninsula. His personal credibility is at stake. His new approach leaves him, and others, with less room to manoeuvre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a public statement on 12 January, President Donald Trump again waived US sanctions against Iran, keeping alive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), at least for now. Trump gave \u2018Europeans allies\u2019 120 days &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":36868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,247,2070],"class_list":["post-36866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-iran","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump&#039;s Iran ultimatum | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-iran-ultimatum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump&#039;s Iran ultimatum | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In a public statement on 12 January, President Donald Trump again waived US sanctions against Iran, keeping alive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), at least for now. 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