{"id":37105,"date":"2018-02-05T12:30:02","date_gmt":"2018-02-05T01:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37105"},"modified":"2018-02-05T12:33:58","modified_gmt":"2018-02-05T01:33:58","slug":"us-vietnamese-cooperation-current-not-past-issues-limiting-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-vietnamese-cooperation-current-not-past-issues-limiting-factor\/","title":{"rendered":"US\u2013Vietnamese cooperation: current, not past, issues are the limiting factor"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

US defence secretary James Mattis recently made his first trip to Southeast Asia<\/a>. Significantly, the visit took in Indonesia and Vietnam, both listed in Washington\u2019s newly released national security strategy<\/a> and national defence strategy<\/a> as partners of growing significance. The trip not only marked the two nations\u2019 greater role in the region, but also signalled that the US is putting increased weight on cooperation beyond the regional treaty allies, Thailand and the Philippines. Recognising that no relationship stays the same, but \u2018they either get stronger or they get weaker\u2019, Mattis confirmed that America wants a stronger relationship with a stronger Vietnam<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hanoi has made active efforts from the early days of the US new administration to engage with it. Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was the first Southeast Asian head of state<\/a>\u2014and the third from Asia (after Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese president Xi Jinping)\u2014to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington. Several more ministerial level visits have taken place and Trump visited Vietnam <\/a>in November last year.<\/p>\n

The idea of a US aircraft carrier visit was floated during the visit to Washington of Vietnamese defence minister Ngo Xuan Lich in August. In Hanoi, Mattis met briefly with President Tran Dai Quang, visited the historic Vietnamese Tran Quoc pagoda, and discussed plans for the USS Carl Vinson<\/em><\/a> to arrive in Da Nang in March 2018. It will be the first such visit since US forces left Vietnam at the end of the war in 1975. Just two days before Mattis\u2019s arrival, the US committed to dioxin remediation at Bien Hoa Air Base<\/a> as it continued to address war legacies.<\/p>\n

While the carrier\u2019s arrival will have considerable symbolism\u2014given the 50th anniversary<\/a> of the Tet Offensive\u2014the controversy it may well bring arises not from history but from current power plays in the region.<\/p>\n

So how is this being viewed by China? A Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson was reported as saying that China had no objection<\/a> to the Carl Vinson<\/em>\u2019s visit to Vietnam, but the Communist Party\u2013run Global Times<\/em> called the plan a \u2018red line<\/a>\u2019 that neither the US nor Vietnam should cross. Beijing would see an aircraft carrier visit as meddling in South China Sea disputes that it wants external actors, such as the US, to stay away from. China\u2019s dissatisfaction with the Washington\u2013Hanoi rapprochement isn\u2019t surprising, as these developments come amid the tension that followed the release of the US national defence strategy that explicitly named China as a \u2018strategic rival\u2019.\u00a0 Add to that the latest freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) by a US warship. On 17 January, the USS Hopper<\/em> sailed near the Scarborough Shoal\u2014the subject of an intense dispute between China and the Philippines after it was seized by China in 2012. China insists that the FONOP violated its sovereignty and says the patrols have forced it to strengthen its defence capabilities<\/a>, including establishing military facilities<\/a> on artificial islands. Vietnam has been actively and consistently upholding its own claims in the South China Sea. Mattis\u2019s visit to Southeast Asian countries, and in particular his commitment to closer cooperation with Hanoi, agitated Beijing further.<\/p>\n

Vietnam is a sovereign nation that\u2019s entitled to pursue independent foreign and defence policies. But China has been cultivating a habit of signalling what it expects from its neighbours, and what it doesn\u2019t want. Beijing regularly tells countries, such as Vietnam, that they\u2019re overreacting<\/a>, and the southern neighbour is by no means singled out. In the growing debate on China\u2019s coercive diplomacy<\/a>, it\u2019s important to appreciate that its rhetoric\u2014expressing displeasure, disappointment or hurt feelings\u2014is an integral part of Beijing\u2019s strategy. Such rhetoric is often applied before, or often instead of, coercive action. For China\u2019s purposes, conveying its displeasure is often enough to alter the target nation\u2019s behaviour.<\/p>\n

To stand up to Beijing, Vietnam needs to be sure of strong and continuing US support. Hanoi has developed a pattern of tailored reaction and a relatively good sense of when to give in and when to counter-coerce. For example, in May 2014, when China deployed the HYSY-981 oil rig<\/a> into waters Vietnam claims around the Paracel Islands, the Vietnamese launched a concentrated diplomatic and media campaign to counter Chinese coercion. It resulted, eventually, in China withdrawing the rig ahead of schedule. In July 2017, however, under Chinese pressure to stop gas exploration<\/a>\u00a0in cooperation with the Repsol company, Hanoi bowed to Beijing\u2019s demand. Of course, the reaction in each situation will depend on the severity of the issue and other factors such as the likely gains from concessions or the costs of countering Beijing\u2019s coercion. Vietnam views the American aircraft carrier visit as an opportunity worth standing up to China over, but some room for negotiation remains, perhaps regarding the timing of the visit, the length of the carrier\u2019s stay and what Hanoi says about its significance while it\u2019s there. To put its foot down, however, Hanoi needs Washington\u2019s continual reassurance that Mattis\u2019s tougher stance towards China isn\u2019t temporary and that a US commitment to the South China Sea remains on Trump\u2019s priority list.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US defence secretary James Mattis recently made his first trip to Southeast Asia. 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