{"id":37240,"date":"2018-02-12T06:00:47","date_gmt":"2018-02-11T19:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37240"},"modified":"2018-02-11T13:07:07","modified_gmt":"2018-02-11T02:07:07","slug":"international-bipartisan-banner-oz-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/international-bipartisan-banner-oz-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The international bipartisan banner and Oz politics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u2018Politics stops at the seaboard and anybody who denies that postulate is a son of a bitch and a crook and not a true patriot.\u2019<\/em>\u2014Dean Acheson<\/a>, US Secretary of State<\/p>\n

Acheson, a wry moustachioed warrior with a WASP\u2019s wasp humour, injected much irony into the iron demands of patriotism.<\/p>\n

In foreign and defence policy, the bipartisan banner is used to persuade and bolster, to enlist and to enforce. Bipartisanship serves high policy and low politics.<\/p>\n

Political detente allows both sides to agree to agree\u2014and not to argue about tough or important issues. No risk of being politically wounded if you don\u2019t fight.<\/p>\n

Australia will see how this works throughout the year. Parliament is back and the partisan battle begins. Once the May budget is delivered, election fever will spike and surge and consume Canberra until Malcolm Turnbull announces his date with destiny and the voters.<\/p>\n

The window for a\u00a0simultaneous half-Senate and House of Reps election<\/a>\u00a0is between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019. Expect an election this year\u2014the opinion polls will help you track the fever. The commentariat nibbles at the idea Bill Shorten has peaked and the tide turns for Turnbull<\/a>. Perhaps. The months beyond the federal budget will tell.<\/p>\n

The moment polls show Turnbull he\u2019s within reach, the real poll happens. If the prime minister has to hold off until next year, he\u2019ll be clinging to the reins rather than driving the cart. Hanging on will mean the polls still crush the government; panic in coalition ranks will build.<\/p>\n

Recent Oz history indicates Turnbull needs to be a freshly re-elected prime minister by Christmas, or he\u2019ll be an ex-PM, dispatched by his voters or his party.<\/p>\n

Australian political lore says voters decide using a domestic and an international question, framed by their interests, beliefs and histories: The two questions are:<\/p>\n

Domestic: Who will do the best job running the economy and managing the nation?<\/p>\n

International: Who do I trust to keep Australia secure?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Politicians spend most of their time fighting the domestic battle. The Turnbull government\u2019s chant about jobs and growth is directed at an average voter delightfully dubbed Mr Jobson Grothe<\/a>. Labor\u2019s focus on family budget struggles means their pitch is to a voter I\u2019d dub Mr Costa Living.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not much distance between Mr Grothe and Mr Living. The bash and bombast of the Lib\u2013Lab domestic fight is the deep division of small differences.<\/p>\n

Now to Lib\u2013Lab bipartisanship around international issues. As long as each side can tick these boxes, they\u2019re happy not to argue:<\/p>\n