{"id":37266,"date":"2018-02-13T11:00:36","date_gmt":"2018-02-13T00:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37266"},"modified":"2018-02-13T12:18:52","modified_gmt":"2018-02-13T01:18:52","slug":"australia-prepared-indias-shifting-character","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-prepared-indias-shifting-character\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Australia prepared for India\u2019s shifting character?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The recent discovery of India has been a positive development in Australian foreign policy. While Australia has been able to develop a highly lucrative economic partnership with Asia\u2019s other behemoth, the burgeoning relationship with India is less transactional, focusing on security<\/a>, strategic and \u2018values-based\u2019 ties.<\/p>\n

Yet in the enthusiasm for potential major new markets, and the desire for a new great-power strategic partner to counterbalance<\/a> China\u2019s rise, there seems to be a lack of intimate understanding of India\u2019s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP\u2014Indian People\u2019s Party). Australia\u2019s increased engagement with India is essential, but we should be very wary of the party\u2019s ideology and its agenda<\/a>. If the BJP\u2019s power continues and increases, India\u2019s internal structures, and international behaviour, may shift.<\/p>\n

The party\u2019s \u2018Hindutva\u2019 ideology envisages India as an exclusively Hindu domain, with a narrow interpretation of what Hinduism represents and requires. A recent article<\/a> by Sumit Ganguly and Raja Menon in The National Interest<\/em> provides an excellent overview of the sentiment within the BJP and the broader ideological movement, and how it is manifesting itself within Indian society. The piece should be essential reading for Australian policymakers dealing with India.<\/p>\n

The current government is the second the BJP has formed (it only gained significant electoral traction in the 1990s\u2014in a worrying manner<\/a>). It is the first to be able to hold power in the Lok Sabha (lower house) without regional allies in the National Democratic Alliance<\/a> (NDA) and confidence supplied by other parties (as was the case in the first BJP government between 1998 and 2004).<\/p>\n

However, the party lacks a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house) and hasn\u2019t been able to govern unencumbered. Members of the upper house are elected<\/a> proportionally by members of the state legislatures for six-year terms on a rolling two-year basis. The number of seats a state has is weighted by population, which makes keeping a keen eye on Indian state politics vital to understanding when significant shifts in India\u2019s behaviour may start to develop.<\/p>\n

The BJP currently governs 14 of India\u2019s 29 states outright, and is a coalition partner in five more, which gives it great capacity to place party members in the Rajya Sabha as seats become available. Fifty-eight members are set to retire from the Rajya Sabha in April. The NDA won\u2019t quite get the numbers it requires, but it will make a significant dent in its deficit of 37 seats, and reduce the number of parties it needs to negotiate with to pass legislation.<\/p>\n

If it eventually secures control<\/a> of both houses, the party will gain the power to amend aspects of India\u2019s constitution (although the \u2018basic structure doctrine<\/a>\u2019 will limit its more radical vision). As a revisionist party, the BJP remains hostile<\/a> to India\u2019s pluralist constitution, seeing it as embodying Western traditions unsuited to historical Hindu civilisation. Australia\u2019s \u2018values-based\u2019 relationship with India relies heavily on the behavioural norms and domestic institutions that are bound to India\u2019s constitution, as well as the cooperative international posture that resonates from it.<\/p>\n

Restrained by parliamentary and constitutional realities, the party has instead given its tacit approval to ideologically inspired vigilante violence. Hindu extremist groups have targeted people accused of eating beef<\/a>, and the concept of \u2018love jihad<\/a>\u2019\u2014where interfaith marriages are considered covert forms of conversion to Islam\u2014has become more prevalent. Attempts to censor films<\/a> and cultural performances have also become more pronounced, as has the harassment or murder<\/a> of journalists considered \u2018anti-national\u2019. Through these sentiments, Hindutva organisations form the other side of the coin to the Muslim League, which advocated India\u2019s partition in the 1930s and 1940s. An India of plural and peaceful coexistence doesn\u2019t fit with their worldviews.<\/p>\n

While religious segregation is seen as the compromise, Hindutva ideology has grander schemes within its vision. Its \u2018blood and soil\u2019 ideology sees all South Asians as Hindu in blood and views their adherence to other religions as a form of coercive brainwashing by invading forces. Hindutva groups such as the paramilitary Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organisation) have been conducting forced conversion ceremonies<\/a> of Muslims and Christians to \u2018bring them back\u2019 into their \u2018original religion\u2019. India has the second-largest Muslim population (172 million as of the 2011 census), and any increased hostility<\/a> towards this group has the potential to create violent and\/or migratory pressures that could have destabilising regional consequences.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s first-past-the-post system distorts<\/a> the actual popularity of the BJP, but with a large number of niche political parties fracturing the vote, the electoral system will continue to be advantageous to the BJP\u2019s broad Hindu cleavages. The only other party of national scope, Congress, remains moribund<\/a>. It currently controls only four state governments (two with small populations), making its role as a bulwark against the BJP in the Rajya Sabha time limited.<\/p>\n

Australia needs to watch for the effect India\u2019s increasing illiberalism<\/a> will have on the country’s international behaviour. It has the potential to disrupt India\u2019s adherence to current rules-based norms, and erode any alignment of values between the two countries. With a number of democracies having been captured by illiberal forces, the idea that democratic countries will remain broadly liberal is a contestable one. This also raises the question of whether illiberalism at home can accommodate liberalism abroad. China\u2019s president Xi Jinping seemed to extol that notion at Davos 2017, but it is a concept that remains unproven<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At present, India is only seeking a greater role in the international structure consistent with both its economic weight and population size. It doesn\u2019t want to challenge the liberal order; its economic rise, and especially its demographic dividend, relies<\/a> on market expansion and increased foreign investment. However, there remains a significant tension within the BJP\u2019s nationalism between the desire to create a more muscular India through economic development and the reluctance to accept the foreign influence, interaction and scrutiny that\u2019s required to do so.<\/p>\n

As a party with roots in a resentful religious sentiment, the BJP could be overwhelmed by the forces of irrational reaction. That has the potential to advance revisionist and parochial ideas within Indian foreign policy. And it could become disruptive to regional stability, especially if Hindutva\u2019s grand civilisational creed<\/a> seeks more elbow room as India\u2019s power increases.<\/p>\n

Australian policymakers undoubtedly need to forge closer ties with India\u2014the mutually beneficial gains are substantial. But they will also need to keep a watchful eye on its domestic political trajectory and the behaviour it may generate<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent discovery of India has been a positive development in Australian foreign policy. While Australia has been able to develop a highly lucrative economic partnership with Asia\u2019s other behemoth, the burgeoning relationship with India …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":760,"featured_media":37269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[285,69],"class_list":["post-37266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-foreign-policy","tag-india"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Australia prepared for India\u2019s shifting character? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-prepared-indias-shifting-character\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Australia prepared for India\u2019s shifting character? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The recent discovery of India has been a positive development in Australian foreign policy. 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