{"id":37367,"date":"2018-02-19T06:00:40","date_gmt":"2018-02-18T19:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37367"},"modified":"2018-02-16T14:42:02","modified_gmt":"2018-02-16T03:42:02","slug":"20-year-arc-oz-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/20-year-arc-oz-foreign-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"The 20-year arc of Oz foreign policy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia\u2019s four foreign policy white papers are windows on their moments, offering a 20-year narrative of shifting times. The arc is across four stepping stones aligned in purpose but beset by swift tides.<\/p>\n

The white papers are two from the Howard government, In the national interest<\/em><\/a> (1997) and Advancing the national interest<\/em><\/a> (2003), the Gillard government\u2019s Australia in the Asian century<\/em><\/a> (2012) and the Turnbull government\u2019s Foreign policy white paper: opportunity, security, strength<\/em><\/a> (2017).<\/p>\n

The 1997 paper basked in the US unipolar moment and Asia\u2019s growth, accurately calling the major trends of the next 15 years: globalisation and East Asia\u2019s continuing rise. Unfortunately for the paper\u2019s reputation, the Asian financial crisis arrived soon after, a firestorm torching any claim to prescience. White papers sketch what the world might look like a decade out, but can\u2019t forecast disaster 12 months ahead. A government trying to be far-sighted risks political embarrassment from what happens next.<\/p>\n

The 1997 paper described bilateral relationships as the building blocks of policy, with the US the most important block. While denying that the paper presented \u2018a strict hierarchy of importance\u2019, it did just that in designating a hierarchy of \u2018the countries which most substantially engage Australia\u2019s interests\u2019. The order was: the US, Japan, China and Indonesia. Then followed the \u2018significant\u2019 interests list: South Korea, the other ASEAN states and\u2014in the South Pacific\u2014New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. India didn\u2019t make either of the substantial or significant groups.<\/p>\n

The paper\u2019s first heading, \u2018Change and continuity\u2019, was illustrated when its chief author, Peter Varghese, became secretary of DFAT 16 years later and offered a faux formula<\/a> for Australia\u2019s view of the world<\/a> that built on the 1997 base using bilateral\/multilateral updates. Varghese\u2019s formula was \u20186+2+N\u2019: the six most important countries for Australia, listed alphabetically, from Gillard\u2019s Asian century paper (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and the US), plus Australia\u2019s two most significant multilateral meetings, the East Asia Summit and the G20, and\u00a0\u2018N\u2019 for the neighbourhood, the South Pacific.<\/p>\n

The 2003 paper described the age of terrorism, with the 2001 attacks in the US and the 2002 Bali bombings \u2018defining events\u2019 for Australia. A government girding to join the invasion of Iraq started the document by emphasising Australia\u2019s \u2018fundamental values and beliefs\u2019, arguing that the nation\u2019s security depended on promoting \u2018economic and political freedom abroad\u2019. The US loomed largest in the Australian understanding, with one of the 12 chapters devoted solely to the US.<\/p>\n

While China\u2019s rising economic, political and strategic weight was \u2018the most important factor shaping Asia\u2019s future\u2019, the paper underestimated the speed of China\u2019s arrival. It described China as \u2018much less powerful than Japan\u2019 and stated that \u2018no country in Asia will supplant Japan\u2019s importance to Australia\u2019s prosperity for at least another decade\u2019. Within four years, China soared past Japan and the US to become Australia\u2019s biggest trade partner.<\/a><\/p>\n

The Gillard government\u2019s 2012 policy is the odd member of the four: the only Labor paper, produced in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and running to 312 pages. The three Liberal papers all came out of DFAT and are slimmer: 92 pages in 1997, 168 pages in 2003 and 122 pages in 2017.<\/p>\n

Julia Gillard ordered the white paper as a policy tool\u2014its first line declared, \u2018Asia\u2019s rise is changing the world\u2019\u2014and as a political weapon. She needed her own foreign policy document, independent of her foreign minister, Kevin Rudd, the man she\u2019d deposed as prime minister. The Rudd factor meant that the white paper had to be written by the PM\u2019s department, not DFAT.<\/p>\n

The immediate Canberra\/bureaucratic parentage of the term \u2018Asian century\u2019 lies with Treasury<\/a>, which started using the label to discuss the mining boom and how Asia\u2019s \u2018growth and dynamism\u2019 would have a \u2018profound influence\u2019 on Australia. Gillard appointed then-just retired Treasury secretary Ken Henry<\/a> to conduct the inquiry and do the report.<\/p>\n

Henry knew a lot about economics but not much about Asia. He discovered interesting<\/a> stuff that was new<\/a> to him and wrote it all down. When his draft report blew out beyond 400 pages<\/a>, another part of the PM\u2019s empire was called in to \u2018help\u2019 edit: the foreign policy remedial assistance was given by Allan Gyngell, head of the Office of National Assessments.<\/p>\n

Reaching for a political weapon, Gillard had crunched what traditionally would be a two-stage process\u2014first a \u2018green\u2019 paper giving Henry scope to range widely, followed by a government white paper setting out policy backed by funding\u2014into a single effort. Henry\u2019s behemoth was issued as government policy with 25 national objectives (productivity, education, language, tax\u2014everything from agriculture to security) as a roadmap to 2025. However, grand announcements don\u2019t deliver budget dollars. And as the history of defence white papers illustrates, plans without a proper pile of pennies just plop.<\/p>\n

The Asian century paper was a sunny document, confident about Australia\u2019s Asian future. Ditto on Asia\u2019s two giants: \u2018We are optimistic about the ability of China and the US to manage strategic change in the region … the intensity, structure and sophistication of their engagement, often underestimated, has shown it; and they have deeply interlinked interests that will push them that way.\u2019<\/p>\n

Five years later the Turnbull paper has bright hopes but dark visions<\/a>: \u2018Today, China is challenging America\u2019s position.\u2019 The 2017 paper affirms the US alliance, expressing Canberra\u2019s hope\/belief\/prayer that the US will stay top dog: \u2018The Australian Government judges that the United States\u2019 long-term interests will anchor its economic and security engagement in the Indo\u2013Pacific.\u2019<\/p>\n

Whereas the 1997 paper devoted a whole chapter to the US, the 2017 paper begins its chapter covering threats, fault lines and geoeconomic competition with a section headed \u2018The United States and China\u2019.<\/p>\n

The 20-year arc has a troubled trajectory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s four foreign policy white papers are windows on their moments, offering a 20-year narrative of shifting times. The arc is across four stepping stones aligned in purpose but beset by swift tides. The white …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":37370,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[285],"class_list":["post-37367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe 20-year arc of Oz foreign policy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/20-year-arc-oz-foreign-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The 20-year arc of Oz foreign policy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia\u2019s four foreign policy white papers are windows on their moments, offering a 20-year narrative of shifting times. 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