{"id":37521,"date":"2018-02-23T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2018-02-23T00:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37521"},"modified":"2018-02-23T11:23:19","modified_gmt":"2018-02-23T00:23:19","slug":"yet-another-threat-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/yet-another-threat-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Yet another threat to the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Yet another election poses problems for the European Union (EU). Whatever the outcome in the Italian poll on 4 March, the eurozone will be weakened, EU unity tested and Russia\u2019s influence in Europe enhanced. The geopolitical position of the US in Europe will suffer.<\/p>\n

More than other recent European elections<\/a> except that of Germany, Italy\u2019s election will be significant because of the size of its population and economy<\/a>. At 65.5 million, Italy\u2019s population<\/a> is currently the fourth largest in the EU. In 2016 Italy accounted for 11.3% of EU GDP, or 14.5% if the UK is excluded.<\/p>\n

Reform of the EU fiscal compact<\/a>\u2014a key provision of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union<\/a>\u2014is a key Italian election issue. The treaty\u2019s purpose was \u2018to strengthen the economic pillar of the economic and monetary union\u2019. The compact provides a set of rules to \u2018foster budgetary discipline\u2019 and to achieve greater coordination in the governance of \u2018economic policies\u2019 in the euro area.<\/p>\n

The compact requires governments to enact legislation ensuring that their budgets are balanced or in surplus. An EU Commission timeframe to meet this requirement is imposed on non-compliant member states. The compact also sets 60% as an acceptable ratio of debt to GDP. Member states are required to \u2018put in place a budgetary and economic partnership programme\u2019 if they exceed this ratio. This is Italy\u2019s situation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Recovery in the Italian economy has been slow and fragile<\/a>. Italy\u2019s economic growth rate is the lowest in the EU. The IMF forecasts that \u2018the gap between Italy and its partners will widen in 2018\u2019. Unemployment<\/a> in Italy fell to 10.8% in December 2017. But youth unemployment (those aged 15 to 24) remains over 30%. At 58%, Italy\u2019s overall labour participation rate is one of the lowest in the euro area. Italy\u2019s public debt\u2014131% of GDP\u2014is \u2018the world\u2019s fourth largest in absolute terms\u2019. The end of quantitative easing<\/a> in Europe and rising interest rates will probably diminish Italy\u2019s ability to service government debt even further.<\/p>\n

Italian politicians need fiscal discipline to be relaxed if they\u2019re to fund their election promises to lower retirement ages, increase pensions and reform taxation. They also argue that regaining sovereign control over monetary and fiscal policy will make debt management and economic stimulus easier. Amid growing Euroscepticism<\/a>, Italian voters are likely to support these policies.<\/p>\n

Partito Democratico (PD) leader Matteo Renzi<\/a> and anti-EU Movimento 5 Stelle<\/a> (M5S) leader Luigi Di Maio<\/a> both support renegotiating the compact. M5S and PD are leading in the polls. The coalition around Silvio Berlusconi\u2019s<\/a> centre-right Forza Italia (FI) party, which includes right-wing parties Lega Nord<\/a> (LN) and Fratelli d\u2019Italia \u2013 Centrodestra Nazionale<\/a>, opposes the fiscal compact and advocates a dual currency arrangement for Italy. Collectively, the FI coalition is expected to gain the largest number of seats.<\/p>\n

As a consequence, any new Italian government is certain to be at serious odds with the plans of Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron<\/a> for the eurozone. Italian attempts to renegotiate the fiscal compact will clash with Macron\u2019s<\/a> proposed \u2018shoring up the 19-member Eurozone with a finance minister, budget and parliament\u2019.<\/p>\n

Russian use of military force in Eastern Europe and the Middle East has been accompanied by a nuanced and low-key strategy<\/a> of seducing and recruiting like-minded European political parties in the hope that this investment would pay off for Russia in the longer term. This approach has been quite successful and now promises to bear more fruit in Italy.<\/p>\n

The Atlantic Council\u2019s November 2017 report, The Kremlin\u2019s Trojan horses<\/em><\/a>, concluded that if either M5S or LN entered government, they\u2019d \u2018create obstacles for the country\u2019s participation in NATO missions and for NATO\u2019s use of military bases in the country, thus undermining the Alliance\u2019s cohesion\u2019. In any event, they\u2019d \u2018continue to spread the Kremlin\u2019s anti-Western and anti-US strategic narratives among the Italian public\u2019.<\/p>\n

M5S favours<\/a> pulling Italy out of NATO, ending sanctions against Russia and removing all US nuclear weapons from Italian territory. Berlusconi has long had warm relations with Putin and has urged lifting EU sanctions against Russia. He has declared<\/a> that FI will veto any extension of the sanctions.<\/p>\n

Doubts about Italy\u2019s commitment to NATO and the possibility of an EU internecine struggle over Russian sanctions would add yet more divisive issues to those of immigration, the euro and Brexit. Such developments will alarm Eastern European nations on Russia\u2019s border. An Italian veto of renewed sanctions against Russia wouldn\u2019t improve already rocky transatlantic relations with the US.<\/p>\n

The EU has demonstrated resilience and adaptability under an avalanche of recent woes. It won\u2019t immediately fall apart because of the Italian election. But Europe almost certainly will be further stressed, and tested, by additional fissiparous economic, strategic and foreign policy challenges. The erosion of European unity and the potential weakening of Europe\u2019s political commitment to the shared set of values and objectives that traditionally have underpinned the transatlantic strategic alliance are already underway.<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s national security strategy<\/a> states, \u2018A strong and free Europe is of vital importance to the United States.\u2019 The strategy acknowledges that Russia aims to \u2018weaken U.S. influence in the world\u2019 and that Russia views NATO and the EU \u2018as threats\u2019, a position reemphasised in the US national defense strategy<\/a>. However, it\u2019s difficult to see what tools<\/a> a Trump administration that\u2019s aggressively pursuing a blunt and militaristic \u2018America First\u2019 foreign policy has at its disposal to counter Russia\u2019s nuanced and patient destabilisation of NATO and the EU.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yet another election poses problems for the European Union (EU). Whatever the outcome in the Italian poll on 4 March, the eurozone will be weakened, EU unity tested and Russia\u2019s influence in Europe enhanced. The …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":37523,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[325,1025,2131,163],"class_list":["post-37521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-europe","tag-european-union","tag-italy","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nYet another threat to the EU | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/yet-another-threat-eu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yet another threat to the EU | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yet another election poses problems for the European Union (EU). 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