{"id":37698,"date":"2018-03-06T06:00:55","date_gmt":"2018-03-05T19:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=37698"},"modified":"2018-03-06T08:31:16","modified_gmt":"2018-03-05T21:31:16","slug":"troubles-sea-atlas-transatlantic-partnership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/troubles-sea-atlas-transatlantic-partnership\/","title":{"rendered":"Troubles on the \u2018Sea of Atlas\u2019: the transatlantic partnership"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The strategic competition between the US and China dominates the Australian security and foreign policy discourse because of the geographic proximity of East Asia. Naturally, developments and events in that region that affect Australian interests are prioritised in turn. But the future international order and the prospects for enduring global peace and stability more likely will depend on the fate of the transatlantic alliance.<\/p>\n

The relationship between Europe and the US<\/a> has been strained, volatile, adaptive, reactive and yet robust. However, as the shared domestic consensus on democratic institutions, liberal values and global vision weakens, and alternatives emerge internationally, the longevity of the relationship as now constituted must be questioned.<\/p>\n

NATO is generally the focus of the transatlantic relationship, although the prospect of a trade war between the US and the EU has recently grabbed headlines<\/a>. The economic side of the relationship is no less important than the strategic. Originally a bulwark against Soviet expansion, the transatlantic partnership came to be based on shared strategic threats and a shared interest in global governance.<\/p>\n

The strategic aspect predominated until 1989. Russia\u2019s interventions on Europe\u2019s borders and extremist violence and immigration originating in the Middle East imbroglio and sub-Saharan Africa\u2019s woes has brought security issues to the fore once more. However, the economic interdependence is still what anchors transatlantic relationship.<\/p>\n

The US and the EU were each other\u2019s top destination<\/a> for the export of goods and services in 2016, amounting to 18.7% of total US exports and 20.8% of total EU exports. The American Chamber of Commerce<\/a> noted, however, \u2018Trade alone is a misleading benchmark of international commerce\u2019 because \u2018mutual investment dwarfs trade and is the real backbone of the transatlantic economy\u2019.<\/p>\n

Mutual investment has become essential for US and European jobs and prosperity. The US and Europe are each other\u2019s primary source and destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). Only 21% of US FDI went to the Asia\u2013Pacific region in 2016, while 70% of the US total went to Europe. In that same year, \u2018Europe accounted for 72% of global FDI inflows into the US\u2019.<\/p>\n

While China\u2019s growing military capability draws US attention towards the Asia\u2013Pacific, the transatlantic relationship remains more important to the US and the liberal international order. This is reflected<\/a> in Donald Trump keeping options alive for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership<\/a> while abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership<\/a>. Around 22% of US imports and exports were with Europe in 2016, while exports to China comprised only 8% of the total. US affiliates based in the UK export more to the rest of Europe than US affiliates based in China export to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n

Revisionist China certainly poses a threat to the current global order; however, were the intricate strategic and economic strands that bind the US and Europe to unravel the globalised world could rapidly descend into competing regional power blocks.<\/p>\n

A report prepared prior the 2016 Munich Security Conference recognised that the transatlantic relationship already had become \u2018weaker, and less relevant<\/a>, than at any point in decades\u2019 as \u2018US and European paths diverge\u2019. In 2017 the equivalent report drew attention to \u2018the uncertainty about the transatlantic security partnership and about the United States<\/a>\u2019 commitment to European security\u2019. This year\u2019s report observed, \u2018The US is no longer taking the lead<\/a> in maintaining alliances, or in building regional and global institutions that set the rules for how international relations are conducted.\u2019<\/p>\n

It became increasingly clear<\/a> at this year\u2019s Munich conference that many European officials believe \u2018that they need to prepare for a future security infrastructure without Washington\u2019. The German Defence Minister<\/a> condemned America\u2019s \u2018military-heavy approach to global affairs\u2019. The German Foreign Minister<\/a> said he could \u2018no longer recognize\u2019 America and was \u2018perturbed\u2019 by Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

In part the German ministers were speaking to their constituencies. In a recent poll<\/a>, a staggering 88% of Germans said that in future defence policy, partnership with European countries should take precedence over partnership with the US. The French Defence Minister<\/a> told the conference that Europe must seek \u2018strategic autonomy\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s attitudes to multilateralism and globalisation have been described as an inversion in the logic of the transatlantic alliance, and that \u2018it is Europe now that has the greater<\/a>\u2014and for it, existential\u2014interest in preserving an international order that safeguards peace and globalisation\u2019. Others argue, \u2018Trump\u2019s impact on European security<\/a> is profound, strengthening already existing political forces working towards the EU\u2019s strategic emancipation from US tutelage.\u2019<\/p>\n

The security and economic pillars of the transatlantic partnership aren\u2019t separable. The bellicose rhetoric of the Trump administration\u2019s security<\/a> and defence<\/a> policies worry the Europeans greatly. Europeans are critical of Trump\u2019s evisceration<\/a> of the State Department. The US approach to international relations is antagonistic to the general European preference for diplomacy, negotiation and arbitration.<\/p>\n

As the Trump administration continues to emphasise military force and to take belligerent stances, the Europeans will further concentrate on strategic autonomy<\/a>. The transatlantic economy accounts for \u2018one-third of world GDP in terms of purchasing power<\/a>\u2019 and won\u2019t be dismantled overnight. However, if Europe incrementally began to substitute the transatlantic dependency for a closer integration<\/a> with the Chinese economy<\/a>, the old international liberal order would come under perhaps fatal stress. It isn\u2019t unimaginable that a new hybrid Eurasian<\/a> international order might beckon. China is interested in a new international order with different rules and institutions.<\/p>\n

East Asian tensions have the potential to provoke a conflict that would be calamitous for Australia. Avoidance of war rightly should be Australia\u2019s highest foreign policy objective. But in the absence of a Pacific war, it will be on the shores of another ocean that the contours of the future global environment will be drawn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The strategic competition between the US and China dominates the Australian security and foreign policy discourse because of the geographic proximity of East Asia. Naturally, developments and events in that region that affect Australian interests …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":37702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[325,365,2070],"class_list":["post-37698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-europe","tag-trade","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTroubles on the \u2018Sea of Atlas\u2019: the transatlantic partnership | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/troubles-sea-atlas-transatlantic-partnership\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Troubles on the \u2018Sea of Atlas\u2019: the transatlantic partnership | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The strategic competition between the US and China dominates the Australian security and foreign policy discourse because of the geographic proximity of East Asia. 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