{"id":3783,"date":"2013-02-06T05:00:39","date_gmt":"2013-02-05T19:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=3783"},"modified":"2013-02-06T17:45:13","modified_gmt":"2013-02-06T07:45:13","slug":"andrew-davies-and-jim-molan-talk-strategy-round-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/andrew-davies-and-jim-molan-talk-strategy-round-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Davies and Jim Molan talk strategy: round 2"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Andrew<\/a><\/figure>\n

Here’s part II of the Andrew Davies\u2013Jim Molan strategy debate, with part I here<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Andrew Davies<\/strong>: Jim, to what extent do you see the force in being as an expansion base as insurance against a future that\u2019s worse than now?<\/p>\n

Jim Molan<\/strong>: Well, it\u2019s more than just an expansion base. You can\u2019t put all capability off into the future\u2014you have to have some now. In the past we [Defence advisers to government] assumed preparation times that were outside the possibility of impacting on the current force. In other words, we bet that we wouldn\u2019t need the capability we eventually aspired to in the short term. Time has proven it to be the case, but it\u2019s a risk and it mightn\u2019t be true in future. If you\u2019re going to cut the force, you can measure the risk, for example by wargaming. The problem is that no one outside of Defence has any understanding of that risk<\/a>, so there\u2019s no downside to government in cutting money to defence. We believed the government in 2009 when they said we need more and we\u2019ll believe them in 2013 when they say we don\u2019t need as much.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: OK, let\u2019s talk budgets. It seems to me there are three ways you can go if the government sticks to the line of reduced money on defence. The ADF can get smaller, or it can be of lower quality, or it can defer capability until later. While I agree with you about warning times and risk, it\u2019s hard to see a power projection risk against Australia in the next decade that\u2019s worth worrying too much about. No one out there is going to have power projection capabilities that even a moderately competent ADF couldn\u2019t deal with. So let me put a concrete proposal as an example. Let\u2019s say we decide that we don\u2019t need a submarine capability in the near term of the sort that drove the Collins specifications and which seems to be driving the future submarine. Instead, let\u2019s buy the Navy some smaller European boats that aren\u2019t in themselves the strategic submarine capability we think we might need down the track, but which can be used as a stepping off point into a future generation of more capable line of submarines. What\u2019s wrong with that line of reasoning?<\/p>\n

\"Jim<\/a><\/figure>\n

Jim<\/strong>: There\u2019s nothing wrong with that per se, except that you haven\u2019t told me why you\u2019re doing it.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: I\u2019m doing it to fit budget realities. We make the judgement that at some time in the future we will need a strategic submarine capability, but not yet.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Ah, but implied in that statement are assumptions about threat and the strategic environment.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: Absolutely, but for a military capability planner, there are two externalities. The first is the strategic environment and the second\u2014as you said\u2014is the government setting the budget. So if you\u2019re going to have a smaller budget and your assessment of the strategic environment is that you might have a problem in 15 years\u2019 time, but not yet, perhaps the solution is an ADF that doesn\u2019t have the best and shiniest equipment today, but which maintains the skills to move up the capability ladder later.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Right, and that\u2019s totally legitimate, as long as you\u2019ve been through the process of developing a policy and a strategy. And it applies not just to submarines, but across the entire force. I\u2019m not arguing against an interim step\u2014in fact, we\u2019ve done exactly that with our unmanned aerial vehicles. We couldn\u2019t get ourselves organised to work out what our requirements were, so we bought an interim solution (Shadow and Heron) that\u2019s good enough for now. As long as you\u2019ve answered the question \u2018what does the ADF have to be able to do now, in the medium term and in the long term\u2019? then you\u2019ve defined the Need, and if you can meet that, you\u2019re done. What I object to is anything that uses the deception that the amount of money we have now is adequate, meaning that we can keep cutting. If the only function of European boats is to get us through an interim period until we have to get serious about underwater warfare, then by all means. But that\u2019s the strategy I\u2019m talking about. And it needs to be clear. The National Security Strategy is not at all clear\u2014it\u2019s anything you want it be; benign but challenging, uncertain\u2026<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: \u2018Relatively benign<\/a>\u2018, I believe, but relative to what?<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Indeed. This is why policy and strategy, in order to produce capability, must go through a step which answers the question \u2018what is the ADF must be able to do\u2019? If the answer is to maintain skills without a high-level capability, that\u2019s something I have no problem with, but I don\u2019t see that we\u2019ve been through that process anywhere. Defence admits openly that it hasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: And this is where I took issue with you. I think Defence often starts with a \u2018capital-R Requirement\u2019 which looks more like \u2018we need four squadrons of fast jets\u2019 or \u2018we need a submarine on station at X nautical miles for a duration of Y days\u2019.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Maybe they do. It does seem to be the case that some missions are valued more highly than the result they actually achieve, and without looking at the many other ways you can do them.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: Which is why you have to come back to what you\u2019re trying to do\u2014and the focus has to be on the effect rather than the means.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Absolutely\u2014but everyone argues about inputs. Hugh White<\/a> and Ross Babbage<\/a> argue that we need 50 of those or 200 of those, and Nic was arguing that we need Reserves<\/a>. But none of them were arguing about what those things are actually going to do<\/em>. I\u2019ve argued that we can get by with 2% of GDP. But because we can\u2019t say who we are going to fight or how we\u2019re going to fight them, I don\u2019t think the whole force can come back to the level of skills maintenance only. The bottom line is that we need one or a series of generic operational concepts of the sort the Williams Foundation has published<\/a> (PDF) to help us map the resources to the force structure. That\u2019s what tells you whether to buy four, six or a hundred. That\u2019s how you get your inputs.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: Jim, this is scary, but I think we\u2019re in violent agreement\u2014we need to work out what the ADF has to do in terms of effects and then look at the most efficient way to do that.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Yes, and you need information about the ADF\u2019s capabilities so that you can make decisions about allocations of money. You can make trade-offs if necessary.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: Including between future capability and current readiness.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Yes, and we are a long way from having that sort of understanding. If we ask why that isn\u2019t done, one possibility is that governments would be deeply embarrassed about the current level of actual ADF capability. The current ADF couldn\u2019t fight its way out of a paper bag because nothing ever really works or could be made to work for an extended time. And we\u2019re light on for firepower, which is something that seems ok until you get into a shooting match. The process of agreeing an operational concept would let those things be identified. The first argument must be about what you want the ADF to do, not what you think you can afford, and then everything else follows.<\/p>\n

Andrew<\/strong>: Jim, it\u2019s been a pleasure. I won\u2019t promise to agree with you in future, but I think we\u2019ll call it a draw for now.<\/p>\n

Andrew Davies is a senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em>The Strategist.\u00a0Jim Molan is a retired Major General in the Australian Army and is a commentator on defence and security issues.\u00a0Image courtesy of Luke Wilson.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here’s part II of the Andrew Davies\u2013Jim Molan strategy debate, with part I here: Andrew Davies: Jim, to what extent do you see the force in being as an expansion base as insurance against a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,279],"class_list":["post-3783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-force-structure"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAndrew Davies and Jim Molan talk strategy: round 2 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/andrew-davies-and-jim-molan-talk-strategy-round-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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