{"id":38012,"date":"2018-03-21T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-20T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=38012"},"modified":"2018-03-20T15:49:40","modified_gmt":"2018-03-20T04:49:40","slug":"farewell-writing-arms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/","title":{"rendered":"A farewell to (writing about) arms"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

By my count this is my 285th contribution to The Strategist<\/em>, and it\u2019s my last in my time at ASPI. (But don\u2019t breathe too big a sigh of relief\u2014I intend to blight its virtual pages from beyond from time to time.) Like my long-term colleague Mark Thomson<\/a>, the editors have leant on me to make some parting remarks.<\/p>\n

A lot has happened in the defence world since I started here in 2006. ASPI has certainly been an interesting vantage point from which to watch the progress of seven defence ministers, three defence white papers (though we still haven\u2019t finished delivering<\/a> the force structure from the 2000 version), two and a bit<\/a> national shipbuilding plans, two wars and the approval of over $100 billion in major projects.<\/p>\n

One of the challenges to a job like this is to not slip into a persistently negative mindset regarding defence policy and procurement practices. After all, ASPI\u2019s job is to question the prevailing wisdom, and to be Jiminy Cricket to Defence\u2019s Pinocchio. The trick is to be constructive while being critical, and to put forward an alternative way ahead when discussing even the poorest outcomes of previous decision-making.<\/p>\n

For example, even the Super Seasprite fiasco\u2014the defence acquisition equivalent of a knee-high full toss on leg stump for commentators like me\u2014provided an opportunity to explain the virtues of larger helicopters that could bring a dipping sonar capability back to the fleet.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s always worth remembering that, despite all the missteps, cost overruns and schedule slippages along the way, the ADF of today is very much more capable than that of 2006, when I first joined ASPI. There are many things that could (and should) have been done faster, cheaper or better\u2014and some that shouldn\u2019t have been done at all\u2014but the average outcome has been an improvement to the nation\u2019s defence capabilities. Of course, it would be alarming indeed if that weren\u2019t the case, given the size of the defence budget and the number of skilled people involved in the enterprise.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s where I\u2019ll have to confess to having some concerns about the state of our national defence policy. I think we\u2019re still paying too much, both in dollar terms and in broader opportunity costs, for our defence capability. And we\u2019re being too patient about getting it. I haven\u2019t won many friends in defence industry with my views on local procurement versus off-the-shelf purchases, but that\u2019s something I\u2019m unrepentant about.<\/p>\n

What we have today is an uneasy amalgam of defence capability development and defence industry sector support, hiding behind a veneer of \u2018sovereign capability\u2019 or \u2018jobs and growth\u2019. I spend 6,000 words explaining that in a recent essay in Australian Foreign Affairs<\/em> (available in all good newsagents and bookshops<\/a>) so I won\u2019t belabour the point here. If our strategic circumstances looked more benign it would only be a misuse of resources, but it runs the risk of also being a dreadful strategic oversight.<\/p>\n

During my tenure the F-35 joint strike fighter and the future submarine have been the gifts that keep giving. The former was the biggest program on the books when I took on the job, and the latter is the biggest as I go. As I discussed in my previous post, the F-35 program hasn\u2019t yet delivered what we want<\/a>\u2014and won\u2019t for some time yet. Even the initial capability is ten years late into the bargain.<\/p>\n

And we also had to spend $6 billion on an \u2018interim\u2019 Super Hornet capability (later topped up with another $3 billion on Growlers) that\u2019s now looking more like a 20-plus\u2013year force structure element. I\u2019ve often been at loggerheads with Defence people\u2014and sometimes Lockheed Martin people\u2014who thought I was taking too pessimistic a view of the F-35\u2019s progress and the program management. I think the data is in now, and most of ASPI\u2019s prognostications on the subject have aged fairly gracefully.<\/p>\n

The submarines are another matter again. The F-35 is slowly\u2014too slowly\u2014maturing, but we\u2019re at the other end of the submarine life cycle, not yet even having a design to move towards production. The fact that the first of them will be delivered around 2030, and the last closer to 2050, is perhaps the most egregious example of procurement plans being out of whack with strategic circumstance.<\/p>\n

We run the risk of committing $36 billion in today\u2019s money (please allow me a moment of self-indulgence to say I told you so<\/a>) for a capability that will be delivered after the dust has settled on the strategic competition that will shape the Asia\u2013Pacific region for the next century.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s for the future to reveal, and I\u2019m happy to hand over the reins of ASPI\u2019s Defence and Strategy Program to Michael Shoebridge, and commentary on these matters to Michael and to Marcus Hellyer\u2014two very capable people. I\u2019ve written and said enough over the years that nobody is going to die wondering what I think.<\/p>\n

Let me finish with a thank you to everyone who has taken the time to argue with me during my time in this job\u2014the contest of ideas is ultimately what it\u2019s about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By my count this is my 285th contribution to The Strategist, and it\u2019s my last in my time at ASPI. (But don\u2019t breathe too big a sigh of relief\u2014I intend to blight its virtual pages …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":38013,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1823,338,26],"class_list":["post-38012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-budget","tag-defence-policy","tag-defence-spending"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By my count this is my 285th contribution to The Strategist, and it\u2019s my last in my time at ASPI. (But don\u2019t breathe too big a sigh of relief\u2014I intend to blight its virtual pages ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-03-20T19:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-03-20T04:49:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"418\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":418,\"caption\":\"20051029ran8164169_0990 Photograph by Corporal Veronica McKenna Date: 29 October 2005 Pictured: For'ard deck of the HMAS Fremantle and silhouette of the 12.7mm gun in the sunset in the Timor Sea.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\",\"name\":\"A farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-03-20T19:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-03-20T04:49:40+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"A farewell to (writing about) arms\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\",\"name\":\"Andrew Davies\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Andrew Davies\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist","og_description":"By my count this is my 285th contribution to The Strategist, and it\u2019s my last in my time at ASPI. (But don\u2019t breathe too big a sigh of relief\u2014I intend to blight its virtual pages ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2018-03-20T19:00:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2018-03-20T04:49:40+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":418,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Andrew Davies","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Andrew Davies","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/20051029ran8164169_0990-e1521520292198.jpg","width":640,"height":418,"caption":"20051029ran8164169_0990 Photograph by Corporal Veronica McKenna Date: 29 October 2005 Pictured: For'ard deck of the HMAS Fremantle and silhouette of the 12.7mm gun in the sunset in the Timor Sea."},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/","name":"A farewell to (writing about) arms | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2018-03-20T19:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2018-03-20T04:49:40+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A farewell to (writing about) arms"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73","name":"Andrew Davies","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Andrew Davies"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38012"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38012"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38012\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38016,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38012\/revisions\/38016"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}