{"id":38902,"date":"2018-04-30T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2018-04-29T20:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=38902"},"modified":"2018-04-30T09:38:46","modified_gmt":"2018-04-29T23:38:46","slug":"cold-winds-fifth-china-oz-icy-age","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cold-winds-fifth-china-oz-icy-age\/","title":{"rendered":"Cold winds of the fifth China\u2013Oz icy age"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As China and Australia are demonstrating, icy periods between nations are difficult and challenging. Even dangerous.<\/p>\n

Yet along with the perils of thrills and spills, chills are illuminating.<\/p>\n

The icy age disrupts the usual rhythms. Protocol ices and normal transactions slow. Australian ministers aren\u2019t getting invites to visit China and the annual Australia Week business expo in China \u2018looks certain to be abandoned\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The reality of the push, pull and power plays is revealed.<\/p>\n

Differences have to be discussed, if not resolved. Dispute, not agreement, is to the fore and must be dealt with as the temperature drops.<\/p>\n

Icy ages seldom get to a catharsis\u2014as long as catastrophe is avoided, a rethink has its uses.<\/p>\n

Australia and China are in the fifth significant icy period in 70\u00a0years. The history of the four previous ages is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The icy age demands a rethink. Even after the \u2018let\u2019s move on\u2019 moment is reached (agree to disagree or do a deal) the chill influences the future trajectory. Such periods force a reset.<\/p>\n

The reset option is available because governments that throw the switch to cold can recalibrate to warmer settings. That\u2019s the positive read from history. This time, though, the domestic dimensions of the China\u2013Oz wrangle loom large. The fifth icy age is more than a foreign affairs stoush\u2014it has domestic dimensions that increase the political chill factor for both sides.<\/p>\n

Previous icy ages had diverse elements but tended to focus on things happening in China\u2019s sphere. Today\u2019s icy age has more of its action on Australian soil because China\u2019s sphere reaches more Australian interests. The balance of power moves steadily China\u2019s way, so the blowback spills our way.<\/p>\n

The elements of the chill\u2014domestic and strategic\u2014gathered last year.<\/p>\n

Australia held its tongue about Donald Trump, to hold firm to the alliance, while language about China became shriller<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Describing China as a \u2018frenemy<\/a>\u2019 in private, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull offered a \u2018dark view\u2019 of a \u2018coercive China\u2019<\/a> seeking regional domination in a major Asia policy speech.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s foreign policy white paper emphasised the friendly side of China as frenemy; that\u2019s as it should be in an official document. The elemental\/foundational starting point of the paper, though, is stark. The central judgement of the paper is the fear of China\u2019s challenge to the US and the \u2018rules-based\u2019 order so prized by Australia. Having described that central reality, Australia reaffirmed its 77\u2011year commitment to US alliance and its enduring belief in the US role in Asia.<\/p>\n

The domestic dimension of the cooling was dramatised in December by the fall of a Labor<\/a> senator<\/a> seen to be doing China\u2019s bidding because of political donations from Chinese business<\/a>. Almost at the same moment, the Prime Minister was announcing legislation to ban foreign political donations<\/a> and to broaden the definition of espionage. To make the point in the most pointed way, Turnbull used Mandarin to quote Mao\u2019s famous line about China standing up<\/a> to state that Australia will stand against foreign interference. Chilly!<\/p>\n

A significant date in any icy age is when governments cease to deny there\u2019s a problem and start openly discussing what\u2019s wrong. The new icy age is now acknowledged.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s ambassador to Canberra, Chen Jingye, complained to the Australian<\/em> about \u2018a growing lack of mutual trust\u2019<\/a> that could hurt trade: \u2018We have seen a kind of systematic, irresponsible, negative remarks and comments regarding China which has caused adverse impact on bilateral relations.\u2019<\/p>\n

Malcolm Turnbull\u2019s version is that \u2018tension\u2019 in the relationship is caused by \u2018misunderstandings and mischaracterizations<\/a> of our foreign interference legislation in some of the Chinese media\u2019.<\/p>\n

Blaming the media is standard stuff in the early stage of an icy age. Once tensions are acknowledged, governments can\u2019t wave it off as a journalistic beat-up. The \u2018misunderstandings\u2019 line is useful for a leader feeling the freeze. The tyranny of the talking points is the need to talk. Just don\u2019t believe it. No misunderstanding here.<\/p>\n

China knows the push\u2013pull power play basis of this as much as we do. In the official grievance game, Beijing is an old master. The formal expression of affront was given by China\u2019s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Hua Chunying<\/a>, at her regular press conference, rejecting the claim of Chinese interference in Australia and then ramping up to a broader charge of Australian poor faith and prejudice:<\/p>\n

First, with regard to political infiltration, we have responded to it on multiple occasions. There are normal people-to-people exchanges between countries and normal exchanges and cooperation can be conducted in various fields. If one views normal exchanges as infiltration, he had better lock himself in a dark room and live in isolation. People with such a mindset should reflect on themselves.<\/p>\n

Second, regarding China\u2013Australia relations, the normal and friendly exchanges and cooperation between countries should be underpinned by reliable and strong mutual trust. Without mutual trust, exchanges and cooperation in other areas would be impossible. We hope that the Australian side can make concrete efforts to discard its prejudices and discriminatory practices against China, join hands with China to step up mutual trust and create enabling conditions and relaxing atmosphere for our exchanges and cooperation across the board.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The two points from the foreign ministry are Beijing\u2019s justification for applying the diplomatic squeeze. You can reject Beijing\u2019s version of the dispute while accepting that the twin points are a useful definition of what the icy age is about.<\/p>\n

Australia is arguing about China\u2019s power and role in Asia. Add to this that Australia is now arguing about China\u2019s effort to exert power within Australia. Getting a reset on those two issues will be extremely difficult. But for Australia, the rethink has started.<\/p>\n

The icy age asks Australia to think about itself, not just about the relationship with China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As China and Australia are demonstrating, icy periods between nations are difficult and challenging. Even dangerous. Yet along with the perils of thrills and spills, chills are illuminating. The icy age disrupts the usual rhythms. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":38903,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,52,285],"class_list":["post-38902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCold winds of the fifth China\u2013Oz icy age | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cold-winds-fifth-china-oz-icy-age\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cold winds of the fifth China\u2013Oz icy age | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As China and Australia are demonstrating, icy periods between nations are difficult and challenging. 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