{"id":38947,"date":"2018-05-01T13:30:08","date_gmt":"2018-05-01T03:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=38947"},"modified":"2018-05-01T10:11:30","modified_gmt":"2018-05-01T00:11:30","slug":"lies-damn-lies-vietnams-trade-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lies-damn-lies-vietnams-trade-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"Lies, damn lies and Vietnam\u2019s trade statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

On 17\u00a0April, Bloomberg<\/em> reported<\/a> that China had overtaken the United States as Vietnam\u2019s largest export market. According to figures cited by the news organisation and tallied by the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam\u2019s exports to China totaled US$50.6\u00a0billion in 2017, compared to $46.5\u00a0billion in exports to the\u00a0US.<\/p>\n

If these numbers are accurate, they would represent a significant shift in the triangular relationship between Vietnam, China and the US. As Bloomberg<\/em> succinctly put it, the data underscore how the world\u2019s second-largest economy is \u2018growing its influence in the region\u2019 at the expense of the\u00a0US.<\/p>\n

But the trade numbers do not tell the whole story; a closer reading suggests they might even be wrong. Preliminary statistics<\/a> from the General Department of Vietnam Customs (GDVC), which oversees Vietnam\u2019s trade data, contradict the IMF assessment. According to the GDVC, exports to the US last year totaled $41.6\u00a0billion, while exports to China stood at $35.5\u00a0billion. In other words, by Vietnam\u2019s count, the\u00a0US remained its largest export market by a margin of\u00a017%, a gap that held steady during the first three months of\u00a02018<\/a>. Moreover, the GDVC figures show that historic trends in Vietnam\u2019s trade ties have remained intact; Vietnam continues to run a large trade deficit with China and a surplus with the\u00a0US.<\/p>\n

So, what can account for the discrepancies between the official data and the IMF\u2019s figures?<\/p>\n

One possible explanation is methodological: the Fund and the GDVC simply used different formulas to arrive at their estimates. But a gap of $15.1\u00a0billion on the China side of the ledger makes this highly unlikely. Another possibility is that the IMF sourced its data exclusively from Chinese authorities. But evidence for that scenario is thin.<\/p>\n

A third theory\u2014which, admittedly, is impossible to prove beyond a reasonable doubt\u2014may be the most credible: both sides manipulated annual and monthly trade data to bolster their own narratives.<\/p>\n

For Vietnam, data indicating lower exports would support the government\u2019s efforts to extend trade deeper into Chinese markets. Plagued by a large and persistent bilateral trade deficit, Vietnamese officials have long requested that their Chinese counterparts allow more imports from Vietnam. The numbers released by GDVC would advance\u2014or at least not undermine\u2014that goal.<\/p>\n

For China, on the other hand, inflating the figures for imports from Vietnam could help neutralise such a request, reminding the Vietnamese authorities of how important trade with China is to their country\u2019s economy. Higher trade figures may persuade Vietnam to maintain friendly bilateral ties, and perhaps even to adopt more accommodating positions on thorny regional security issues, such as the South China Sea dispute<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Of course, the Trump administration\u2019s protectionist trade policies could render all of this speculation meaningless. While Vietnam\u2019s bilateral trade with China is expanding and could exceed $100\u00a0billion<\/a> sometime this year, its trading relationship with the\u00a0US is being hurt by America\u2019s inward turn. Major Vietnamese exporters of seafood and steel have already been hit with new US\u00a0tariffs<\/a>, and additional sectors, such as textiles, could be next. With the\u00a0US having withdrawn<\/a> from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, growth in bilateral trade is bound to suffer further.<\/p>\n

If these trends continue, the IMF\u2019s analysis\u2014as questionable as it may be now\u2014will eventually become reality. And, if China, which has long been Vietnam\u2019s largest source of imports, does<\/em> replace the\u00a0US as Vietnam\u2019s most important export market, Vietnam will find it nearly impossible to continue its current strategy of hedging between two great powers. At that point, no amount of creative accounting will be able to mask the new realities of Vietnam\u2019s economic constraints.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 17\u00a0April, Bloomberg reported that China had overtaken the United States as Vietnam\u2019s largest export market. According to figures cited by the news organisation and tallied by the International Monetary Fund, Vietnam\u2019s exports to China …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":38948,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,31,540],"class_list":["post-38947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-united-states","tag-vietnam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLies, damn lies and Vietnam\u2019s trade statistics | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lies-damn-lies-vietnams-trade-statistics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lies, damn lies and Vietnam\u2019s trade statistics | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On 17\u00a0April, Bloomberg reported that China had overtaken the United States as Vietnam\u2019s largest export market. 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