{"id":39269,"date":"2018-05-12T06:00:22","date_gmt":"2018-05-11T20:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39269"},"modified":"2018-05-30T10:49:32","modified_gmt":"2018-05-30T00:49:32","slug":"every-good-reason","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/every-good-reason\/","title":{"rendered":"Every good reason"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal has been met with widespread criticism given that it was Barack Obama\u2019s flagship foreign affairs agreement and represented a rare consensus among the world\u2019s great powers.<\/p>\n

From a nuclear non-proliferation perspective, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) certainly has its merits. It achieved a partial \u2018roll back\u2019 of Iran\u2019s nuclear program, increasing its \u2018break-out time\u2019 from an estimated three months to one year. It did so by placing limits on Tehran\u2019s ability to enrich uranium and build up stockpiles of fissile material for at least\u00a010, and up to\u00a015, years. This included the dismantling of centrifuges, putting limits on the numbers of operating centrifuges, and imposing caps on the allowed level of uranium enrichment.<\/p>\n

As a result of the deal, the international community and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have become far more knowledgeable about Iran\u2019s nuclear program, and are now better placed to detect any illegitimate activity than was the case before. Iran has to give IAEA\u00a0inspectors access to any site within 24\u00a0days of a request, which is more than enough time to detect illicit activity.<\/p>\n

Further, Iran\u2019s good faith isn\u2019t assumed. Should Tehran be found in breach of the agreement, the suite of UN sanctions that had crippled Iran\u2019s economy in the preceding years will automatically \u2018snap back\u2019 into place, and countries such as China and Russia would have no veto to prevent that occurring.<\/p>\n

Even so, Trump\u2019s decision to withdraw from the deal is not entirely irrational on either non-proliferation or broader geostrategic grounds.<\/p>\n

The high-water mark for any deal with Iran would have been complete denuclearisation. What was achieved instead was a postponement of the problem for 10\u201315 years, in return for the lifting of most UN, EU\u00a0and US\u00a0sanctions. In the meantime, Iran\u2019s nuclear scientists are still allowed to conduct advanced centrifuge research and development, the UN\u2011endorsed heavy arms embargo will be lifted in five years, and the \u2018snapback\u2019 mechanism will expire in 10\u00a0years.<\/p>\n

A further key omission in the JCPOA is the failure to link Iran\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, even though the means of delivery is as important as the weapon itself. The deal itself doesn\u2019t directly set limits on Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program. UN Security Council Resolution 2231 that endorsed the deal merely \u2018calls upon\u2019 rather than requires that Iran refrain from testing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles for eight years. Iran has, however, shown little restraint, testing as many as 23 short- and medium-range missiles since the deal was struck, many of which the\u00a0US, France, Germany and Britain argue are \u2018inherently capable of delivering nuclear weapons\u2019.<\/p>\n

In short, the nuclear deal only partially rolls back and freezes Iran\u2019s nuclear program. When it expires, the\u00a0US and its allies will likely face an Iran with the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon via a medium-range missile within one year. Given the prospect of further Iranian satellite launch vehicle testing, there\u2019s a possibility that within this time frame Tehran may even have an intercontinental delivery system.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s behaviour has done little to allay concerns that it will indeed restart its nuclear weapons program once the constraints of the deal end. The immediate lifting of sanctions was meant to usher in a new period of more cooperative relations between the\u00a0US and Iran. The lure of access to export markets and foreign direct investment was predicted to dampen Iran\u2019s pursuit of regional hegemony, and greater economic prosperity would support moderate forces within the country.<\/p>\n

However, this hoped-for transformation in Iranian foreign policy hasn\u2019t eventuated. Tehran has taken advantage of political turmoil and power vacuums in neighbouring countries, acting against US\u00a0interests not only by providing military support to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but also by extending its influence in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Such behaviour has vindicated Republican Party critics of the deal in the US, who argued that Tehran would use its newfound access to hard currency to pursue its long-standing expansionist aims in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Sticking with the nuclear deal is based on the flawed assumption that Iranian foreign policy is amenable to change. It allows Iran to maintain a latent nuclear weapons capability, regain its economic and military strength, and use that to undermine US\u00a0foreign policy objectives in the region.<\/p>\n

While many hoped that Donald Trump would stick with the nuclear deal, and lead negotiations on a separate agreement to restrain Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program, the very existence of the JCPOA constrains Trump\u2019s ability to do so. Iran argues that its ballistic missile programs are purely defensive, and that any sanctions applied to it would be in breach of the nuclear deal and constitute grounds for its withdrawal.<\/p>\n

Thus, the US had two choices: stick with the nuclear deal or start again, this time using a \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign to drive Iran to the bargaining table under the threat of a return to oil and secondary sanctions.<\/p>\n

While the success of such a strategy is far from certain, it appears to have worked well so far with North Korea. No doubt Trump predicts that Iran too will have to re-evaluate the benefits versus the costs of its nuclear hedging strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal has been met with widespread criticism given that it was Barack Obama\u2019s flagship foreign affairs agreement and represented a rare consensus among the world\u2019s great powers. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":603,"featured_media":39270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1883],"class_list":["post-39269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-jcpoa","dinkus-us-withdrawal-from-jcpoa"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEvery good reason | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/every-good-reason\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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