{"id":39340,"date":"2018-05-16T13:00:40","date_gmt":"2018-05-16T03:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39340"},"modified":"2018-05-30T10:51:08","modified_gmt":"2018-05-30T00:51:08","slug":"my-way-trump-withdraws-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/my-way-trump-withdraws-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"My way: Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Frank Sinatra popularised \u2018My Way\u2019 in the late 1960s. Last week Donald Trump performed his own version by announcing his unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal<\/a> (JCPOA). It struck a very unpopular chord\u2014especially among the European signatories to the deal and, unsurprisingly, the Iranians.<\/p>\n

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani\u2019s immediate response was to advise that Iran would stay with the deal<\/a> if it and the other signatories, including Russia and China, could reach agreement that achieved the JCPOA\u2019s objectives, as well as those of Iran.<\/p>\n

Trump is very clearly on a mission, bluntly demanding that his international audience sing to his tune, or else. He technically had until 12\u00a0May to take his decision, but for reasons not yet public, chose to bring the date forward to 8\u00a0May.<\/p>\n

One probable explanation is that he had made up his mind some time ago. By acting early, he put an end to the very intense, and to him uncompelling, representations by the European signatories and others\u2014including Australia\u2014to stay with the deal.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s real focus in withdrawing is to target what he described<\/a> as the broader totality of \u2018Iranian aggression\u2019 and the \u2018malign behaviour of the Iranian regime\u2019. He identified this as including Iran\u2019s \u2018destabilising drive for regional hegemony\u2019, its \u2018support for terrorists, extremists and regional proxies\u2019, \u2018its publicly declared quest to destroy Israel\u2019, \u2018cyber-attacks against the US and its allies\u2019 and \u2018its threats to freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump sees the JCPOA as one contributing factor, but only one, to Iran\u2019s malign behaviour. He reiterated the failings of the deal to prevent Iran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons, nuclear-capable missiles and ICBMs. By claiming that the deal was negotiated by the Iranians \u2018in bad faith\u2019, Trump has, by implication, dismissed Iran\u2019s commitment not to obtain nuclear weapons. He also ignores the IAEA\u2019s repeated verifications since the deal came into force that Iran has adhered strictly to the restrictions on its nuclear development program.<\/p>\n

In its totality, Trump\u2019s statement is a very clear warning, both explicit and implicit, to Iran that unless it changes its ways, the\u00a0US will break Iran\u2019s economy and use all pressure to facilitate regime change.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s statement also sends a very clear message to the Europeans and others: US\u00a0interests are first, theirs second. The European\u2019s economic interests were blatantly targeted: US\u00a0sanctions will be re-imposed, and if others doing business with Iran don\u2019t \u2018wind down\u2019 their activities within a given period and comply fully with the sanctions, they \u2018will risk severe consequences\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump also indicated his intention to work through \u2018a broad coalition of nations \u2026 to halt the Iranian regime\u2019s destabilizing drive for regional hegemony\u2019. The implication is that he\u2019ll work outside any existing framework, and sideline those who don\u2019t provide the level of cooperation and commit to his outcomes that he expects.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s decision is a major disappointment and source of immense frustration for the Europeans, but not a surprise. The expectation is that the Europeans, fully supported by the other JCPOA signatories, Russia and China, will do everything they can to keep the accord alive, and use it to address their mutual concerns about Iran\u2019s regional activities.<\/p>\n

But Trump\u2019s economic threats, and the new sanctions that particularly target Iran\u2019s energy, petrochemical and financial sectors, will hurt the Europeans as well as Iran. Even investment in areas not covered by sanctions will suffer because of ongoing concerns among international banks of alleged US\u00a0Treasury \u2018intimidation\u2019 and fear that other areas could also become subject to sanctions.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s decision, and especially the way it has been taken, will have other negative effects on transatlantic relations. Sources say privately that respect and trust have been casualties, and that there\u2019s a sense that European nations\u2014individually and collectively\u2014need to be more independent and self-sufficient, politically, economically and financially.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s decision also offers the opportunity for Russia and China to not only showcase their commitment to the JCPOA, but play a constructive role as contributors seeking to lessen regional tensions and conflict. Both, undoubtedly, will also seek to exploit transatlantic wedge politics.<\/p>\n

Whether Trump\u2019s withdrawal will affect his proposed meeting with North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong\u2011un remains to be seen. Trump has used Iran to show that he\u2019s tough, but also untrustworthy. China will have a major influence here. If the meeting does occur, it\u2019s unlikely either side will give away anything of substance.<\/p>\n

For Iran, the new economic sanctions are likely to cause significant hurt. Their foreign earnings from oil exports will suffer in particular. How this will affect the average Iranian, and whether it stirs a political reaction that could undermine the power of hardline conservatives, remains to be seen. In fact, the opposite could occur, producing increased solidarity among Iranians opposed to US\u00a0interference and threats.<\/p>\n

It must also be understood that the Rouhani government has little influence over the Iranian military and security services\u2019 actions in neighbouring countries. They report directly to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n

If political change is to occur in Iran, Trump and the other JCPOA signatories need Rouhani onside\u2014not alienated\u2014to negotiate change with the hardliners, as he was able to do during the Obama administration. That wasn\u2019t easy then, and will be less so now. Unfortunately, one of the strongest bargaining chips the Europeans now have with Iran is their common dislike of Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Frank Sinatra popularised \u2018My Way\u2019 in the late 1960s. Last week Donald Trump performed his own version by announcing his unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). 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