{"id":39470,"date":"2018-05-22T14:30:10","date_gmt":"2018-05-22T04:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39470"},"modified":"2018-05-23T10:21:47","modified_gmt":"2018-05-23T00:21:47","slug":"singapore-12-june-whats-the-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/singapore-12-june-whats-the-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore, 12\u00a0June: what\u2019s the deal?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Despite evidence of belated second thoughts by the principal players (see here<\/a> and here<\/a>), a summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong\u2011un is still likely to occur in Singapore on 12\u00a0June. In a recent column<\/a> for the New York Times<\/em>, David Sanger outlined the US\u00a0administration\u2019s super-sized expectations: that Kim will agree on denuclearisation, and accept a schedule that would see \u2018some number of nuclear weapons\u2019 handed over during the following six months, while American inspectors would enjoy virtually unlimited access to oversee the closure and dismantlement of key North Korean production facilities.<\/p>\n

But Pyongyang\u2019s hostile reaction last week to talk of the \u2018Libyan model\u2019 suggests that if Kim Jong\u2011un believes in North Korean denuclearisation at all, it\u2019s only on the never-never plan. He might well entertain his own inflated expectations. North Korea has long fancied a version of the US\u2013India nuclear deal for itself: one that recognises and accepts North Korea as a legitimate nuclear state; enmeshes the country in broader patterns of economic growth; and dilutes the security threat posed to the North by the presence of US\u00a0forces in Northeast Asia.<\/p>\n

So what should we expect the summit to deliver? Some things are relatively clear: a summit that produces merely a statement of principles won\u2019t cut the mustard. Been there, done that\u2014see the joint declaration of principles agreed during the Six\u2011Party Talks in September\u00a02005<\/a>. Writing it out again would be a waste of time, paper and ink.<\/p>\n

Similarly, an outcome that pushes all the big decisions down the track, and depends upon the long-winded meetings of factotums, would also be seen as a failure\u2014not least because Trump has cast both himself and Kim as history makers, not as meeting convenors. True, the natural order of things has been inverted here, because successful summits usually follow\u2014and are the products of\u2014the heavy lifting of numberless sherpas.<\/p>\n

Obviously in this case a successful summit would need to set in train a program of engagement and activity, but Trump and Kim would probably both want to be associated with a grander outcome than a call for sherpas to gather.<\/p>\n

So, not just a statement of principles, and not just a program of future meetings. Nor can it be a summit that merely rubberstamps actions already undertaken, such as the closure of the North Korean nuclear test site<\/a>\u00a0at Punggye-ri. Closing the site is a useful indicator of intent, but reversible.<\/p>\n

Some evidence suggests the North Koreans might be prepared<\/a> to sign and ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, but I suspect they\u2019d want a joint commitment from Washington to do the same\u2014and that proposal would probably die in the US\u00a0Senate.<\/p>\n

Then, of course, there are the tests that most commentators will apply to determine whether or not Kim is serious about restraining his nuclear program. For Washington, an outcome that doesn\u2019t bear down on the threat to the US\u00a0homeland (from North Korea\u2019s Hwasong\u201114 and Hwasong\u201115 ICBMs) won\u2019t be acceptable. North Korea might not, in the first instance, have to surrender the missiles themselves\u2014but probably would have to surrender (in that elliptical phraseology) \u2018some number\u2019 of guidance systems.<\/p>\n

Thermonuclear warheads might well fall in the same category. Complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation is clearly a bridge too far for Pyongyang, but the Americans will want\u2014initially\u2014to \u2018corral\u2019 the North Korean program to the level of threat it posed in\u00a02016, when it had a limited-yield fission warhead and no proven long-range ballistic missile capabilities.<\/p>\n

Washington has also got to be looking for a way of \u2018turning off the tap\u2019: stopping the production of fissile materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) and the manufacture of a range of different ballistic missiles. It may take some time to determine Pyongyang\u2019s existing fissile material and missile inventories, but a key priority will be to halt further growth in those inventories. Stopping plutonium production would be especially valuable because plutonium is a more energetic material than enriched uranium.<\/p>\n

On the missile side, the Americans are probably hoping to see a near-term dismantlement of the ICBM\u00a0factory. Further down the track, they\u2019re probably keen to see North Korea return to far more limited ballistic-missile capabilities\u2014though I\u2019m wary of using the phrase \u2018the Libyan model\u2019, that model\u2019s endorsement of Missile Technology Control Regime thresholds as an acceptable missile constraint might also apply here.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a huge agenda. How much of it will actually form part of a summit outcome? Probably less than we\u2019d hope. And even if all of it is on offer, it might well be at a price\u2014US\u00a0withdrawal from the peninsula?\u2014that not all in Washington would be willing to pay (though Trump himself might be).<\/p>\n

Still, just as Goldilocks eventually found a bowl of porridge that was neither too hot nor too cold, we should anticipate a \u2018deal\u2019 in Singapore\u2014one that erases some of North Korea\u2019s recent gains in exchange for various rewards. Much less likely is the prospect of a \u2018grand bargain\u2019 that shapes the future strategic environment in Northeast Asia. Neither side seems quite ready for that.<\/p>\n

Of course, it\u2019s not quite as simple as finding a \u2018win\u2011win\u2019 solution for Trump and Kim. Any deal is likely to touch on the interests of all parties to the Six-Party Talks\u2014so we can expect all of them to be leaning on Washington and Pyongyang to find a \u2018win-win-win-win-win-win\u2019 solution. That\u2019s a burden neither Trump nor Kim will be keen to embrace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite evidence of belated second thoughts by the principal players (see here and here), a summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong\u2011un is still likely to occur in Singapore on 12\u00a0June. In a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":39471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[86,2070],"class_list":["post-39470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-north-korea","tag-us-foreign-policy","dinkus-trump-kim-summit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSingapore, 12\u00a0June: what\u2019s the deal? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/singapore-12-june-whats-the-deal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Singapore, 12\u00a0June: what\u2019s the deal? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite evidence of belated second thoughts by the principal players (see here and here), a summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong\u2011un is still likely to occur in Singapore on 12\u00a0June. 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