{"id":39476,"date":"2018-05-23T11:00:32","date_gmt":"2018-05-23T01:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39476"},"modified":"2018-05-23T10:00:36","modified_gmt":"2018-05-23T00:00:36","slug":"can-america-meet-the-china-challenge-in-southeast-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/can-america-meet-the-china-challenge-in-southeast-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Can America meet the China challenge in Southeast Asia?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The strategic sands are shifting in Southeast Asia, as China makes multiple moves while the United States seems on its back foot. This is the predominant perception throughout the region. Seen from Beijing, countries in the region are making practical choices to build their economies and China is there to assist. From Washington\u2019s perspective, as captured in the Trump administration\u2019s National Security Strategy, \u2018China seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model, and reorder the region in its favor.\u2019<\/p>\n

Clearly, over the past two years, a subtle but noticeable gravitation towards China has been apparent across the region. The principal question is whether this is a temporary and tactical or a more long-lasting and secular trend. Further, are all ASEAN states gravitating equally towards China? What does the apparent \u2018bandwagoning\u2019 with Beijing suggest about Southeast Asians\u2019 vaunted hedging strategies to avoid dependence on external powers? If Beijing is pulling these countries into its strategic orbit, what is pushing them? Might China overreach and overplay its hand? Can Washington compete effectively in the game of strategic competition? What strengths and weaknesses does each major power bring to the competition?<\/p>\n

The United States possesses broad and durable security ties, diplomatic interactions and commercial presence across the region. Its military assistance programs and security cooperation are second to none, and Beijing cannot compete in this sphere. US\u00a0cultural exchanges are also robust, and the appeal of American soft power is strong\u2014whereas China\u2019s remains weak. US\u2013ASEAN trade totalled US$234\u00a0billion in\u00a02015, while US\u00a0companies invested US$32.3\u00a0billion in ASEAN\u00a0countries in 2012\u20132014 alone\u2014more than three times that of China. The total stock of US\u00a0foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region is US$226\u00a0billion\u2014more than that of China, Japan and the European Union combined. Washington also contributes a variety of regional aid programs such as the Lower Mekong Initiative, and its US$4\u00a0billion in aid (as of\u00a02015) outstrips that from Beijing three to one.<\/p>\n

For its part, China\u2019s strengths are primarily its geographic proximity and vast sums of money. Beijing\u2019s lack of criticism concerning human rights and governance is also appreciated by Southeast Asian countries. China benefits from a more regular diplomatic presence, much greater trade, rapidly growing FDI and close geographic proximity. China\u2019s economic footprint is huge and growing fast in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. China\u2019s trade with ASEAN reached US$345.7\u00a0billion in\u00a02015. The trade relationship received a big boost in\u00a02010 when the China\u2013ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) came into effect.<\/p>\n

Chinese investment into ASEAN has also been spiking upward, reaching US$8.2\u00a0billion in\u00a02015, with a total cumulative stock of US$123\u00a0billion by the end of\u00a02014. China is already the largest foreign investor in Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and Myanmar, and the second largest in Singapore and Vietnam. China is also beginning to increase its military assistance programs and public diplomacy outreach in the region.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, China\u2019s weaknesses include (ironically) its geographical proximity (too near and overbearing), its South China Sea claims and militarisation, and its occasional diplomatic manipulation of ASEAN. China has no real ability to provide security or defence for the region, and there remain historical suspicions that Beijing uses ethnic Chinese communities as \u2018fifth columns\u2019 in several Southeast Asian societies.<\/p>\n

Thus, on balance, when comparing China\u2019s regional involvement to that of the United States, I come to the counterintuitive conclusion that the United States possesses comprehensive comparative strengths vis-\u00e0-vis China in Southeast Asia. The United States is truly a multidimensional actor, while China remains primarily a single-dimensional power.<\/p>\n

Recognising this, the United States needs to capitalise on its strengths and develop a comprehensive plan to effectively compete with China in the region and undertake a major public diplomacy effort to educate Southeast Asians about what the United States has to offer.<\/p>\n

One major challenge is to correct the pervasive perception that the United States has repeatedly proven itself to be episodically engaged and not dependable. Washington should substantially raise Southeast Asia as a strategic priority<\/a> in its Asian and global foreign policy\u2014it is too important a region to cede to China. Many Southeast Asian states look to the United States as an offshore balancer, a role that the United States can and should play. This role should not be confined only to the security sphere, but should be comprehensive<\/a> in scope\u2014including the full range of diplomatic, cultural, public diplomacy and economic instruments.<\/p>\n

When China overreaches and becomes too assertive in the region, which is quite likely (and there are already indications), then the United States needs to be physically present and be perceived to be a reliable partner for Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The strategic sands are shifting in Southeast Asia, as China makes multiple moves while the United States seems on its back foot. This is the predominant perception throughout the region. Seen from Beijing, countries in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":804,"featured_media":39479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,25,2070],"class_list":["post-39476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-southeast-asia","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan America meet the China challenge in Southeast Asia? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/can-america-meet-the-china-challenge-in-southeast-asia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can America meet the China challenge in Southeast Asia? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The strategic sands are shifting in Southeast Asia, as China makes multiple moves while the United States seems on its back foot. 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