{"id":39705,"date":"2018-06-04T14:30:10","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T04:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39705"},"modified":"2018-06-13T13:27:52","modified_gmt":"2018-06-13T03:27:52","slug":"australia-and-the-shifting-regional-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-the-shifting-regional-order\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia and the shifting regional order"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The issue of how Australia should position itself between the current primary power in the Asia\u2013Pacific (the US) and the rising contender (China) has returned suddenly and forcefully to Australian policy debates. If anything, the issue has become more hydra-headed\u2014because influence operations are now a regular part of the discussion, alongside the shifting regional strategic order, and Chinese investments in Australian critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n

On this blog, both Michael Shoebridge<\/a> and Hugh White<\/a> have recently posted their respective views on the topic.<\/p>\n

Michael sees in China\u2019s actions in the South China Sea\u2014and in the pace of its military modernisation\u2014developments that undercut Australia\u2019s traditional policy line of \u2018not having to choose\u2019 between our major ally and our major trade partner. He argues for a reformulation of Australian policy on China\u2014one that reaffirms mutually beneficial economic links, but that won\u2019t \u2018assist [China\u2019s] growing military capabilities\u2019 now that those capabilities are beginning to be used in ways that aren\u2019t in Australia\u2019s or the region\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n

Hugh\u2019s approach is refreshingly direct: he believes that the core of the issue is that \u2018China wants to replace the United States as the primary power in Asia, and we don\u2019t want that to happen\u2019. Both Australians and Americans, Hugh believes, have been in denial about that challenge for over a decade, with Washington awakening to a sense of its new rivalry with Beijing only recently\u2014and unfortunately under an administration driven by the isolationist nationalism of \u2018America First\u2019.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere<\/a>, Hugh has outlined the core of the problem for Australia as follows:<\/p>\n

As China\u2019s power in Asia grows, its capacity to impose costs on us will grow, and that will give it greater and greater influence over our choices. That\u2019s the reality of power. So our task, as we learn to live with China\u2019s power, is to learn how to make those choices well, so that we can preserve maximum independence over our most important issues at minimum cost. From now on, that is what our foreign policy will be all about.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With all due respect, that sounds like a monochromatic foreign policy\u2014one based on the tactical management of Chinese heavy-handedness rather than on the strategic pursuit of Australian interests.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s start one step further back, by recasting the problem in terms of Australian grand strategy. When we look at the sort of region that China wants and the one we want, what\u2019s the main difference? One\u2014reductionist\u2014answer would say that China wants a prosperous, stable Asia with Beijing at its core, whereas Australia wants a prosperous, stable, liberal Asia where power is checked and balanced.<\/p>\n

Building consensus on the goal of prosperity isn\u2019t difficult in either capital. Most states can usually agree to make money together. But the other adjectives suggest a more contentious relationship. What should regional stability look like? How should power be checked and balanced? True, institutions, rules and norms are certainly one part of it, but another part\u2014especially important if the region\u2019s primary power doesn\u2019t accept limitations on its authority within its own domestic polity\u2014derives from the existence of competing centres of power.<\/p>\n

Now, what\u2019s the problem? Well, China\u2019s relative power is surging, and future projections of its wealth and clout are sufficiently daunting as to deter some regional players that would prefer a different future from pursuing their goals. Asia\u2019s continuing preference for bilateralism over multilateralism magnifies China\u2019s ability to dominate its smaller neighbours (by dealing with each individually). Meanwhile, the relative power of the US\u2014the principal guarantor of the existing stable, prosperous, liberal regional order\u2014is in decline.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s to be done? Keeping the US engaged in the region is a good strategy, simply because it\u2019s the world\u2019s strongest single power, and the designer of much of the current security architecture. But keeping it engaged might be difficult if strategic retrenchment really is the electoral flavour of the decade in America. On the other hand, we probably can\u2019t do much to slow China\u2019s growth.<\/p>\n

So how do we get the Asia we want in the face of growing Chinese power and potential American distraction? A range of strategies were fleshed out<\/a> in the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper<\/a>\u2014defending the existing \u2018rules\u2019, encouraging economic interdependence, power balancing, and enhancing national and regional resilience.<\/p>\n

Yes, rules temper power. And yes, economic interdependence helps prevent the emergence of separate, competing economic blocs. But we need to admit, too, that strategies of engagement haven\u2019t produced the \u2018mellowing\u2019 effects that we initially hoped they would. Illiberal great powers\u2014Russia and China\u2014now chip away at the existing international order \u2018demanding a modified order<\/a> that better accommodates the ambitions and appetites of their illiberal domestic regimes\u2019.<\/p>\n

So we need to ask ourselves a hard strategic question: what relationship should we have with a rising authoritarian great power that isn\u2019t mellowing? If we\u2019re unwilling to trade away our preferred vision of a prosperous, stable, liberal region, we\u2019ll need to invest more heavily in the other strategies mentioned in the white paper: balancing and resilience.<\/p>\n

Our objective should be to shape a regional balance of power more favourable to our interests. Ideally, that means recruiting new supporters to that coalition of powers that favours a stable, prosperous and liberal Asia. A sense that such a coalition exists\u2014even though formalised patterns of security cooperation between its members will probably fall well short of a proper alliance\u2014might stiffen the sinews of Asian policymakers willing to push back against China.<\/p>\n

Moreover, we should be exploring options to increase Australia\u2019s own power assets\u2014because a more powerful Australia is also a more resilient one.<\/p>\n

It might turn out that none of those strategies avail us. But they suggest a foreign policy that is both creative and consistent\u2014and more satisfying than a bald choice between which great power to follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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