{"id":39738,"date":"2018-06-08T11:00:19","date_gmt":"2018-06-08T01:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39738"},"modified":"2018-06-05T16:26:54","modified_gmt":"2018-06-05T06:26:54","slug":"balancing-the-risks-and-rewards-of-space","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/balancing-the-risks-and-rewards-of-space\/","title":{"rendered":"Balancing the risks and rewards of space"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

This is the 15th in our series \u2018Australia in Space\u2019 leading up to ASPI\u2019s\u00a0<\/em>Building Australia\u2019s Strategy for Space<\/a>\u00a0conference.<\/em><\/p>\n

Recent years have seen an explosion of optimism around our ability to reach and exploit space, with a multitude of benefits apparent across all aspects of human endeavour. However the paradigm of \u2018Space\u00a02.0\u2019 offers both risks and rewards, and shouldn\u2019t be viewed as an unalloyed good.<\/p>\n

The rapid and uncontrolled exploitation of new opportunities without consideration of potential consequences has the potential to aggravate the already congested and competitive character of the space environment, with risks to both Australia\u2019s national interests and the long-term survival of the global commons of outer space.<\/p>\n

Firstly, the sheer number of potential satellites planned will tax existing collision deconfliction and traffic management structures. On current forecasts, the number of active satellites will increase in the next decade, from approximately\u00a01,800 to a number approaching\u00a010,000. Within this range, a number of \u2018mega-constellations\u2019<\/a> are proposed, each containing thousands of satellites. Much of the explosion in numbers is forecast to occur within a fairly constrained orbital regime, within 1,000\u00a0kilometres of the surface of the earth.<\/p>\n

Such developments may quickly overtake the current means of space surveillance, which is based around the independent verification of orbits by agencies like the US\u00a0Space Surveillance Network, and in the future the US\u00a0Department of Commerce<\/a>. Increasingly, the best source of orbital information will be the operators themselves, which will require new ways of exchanging and verifying such data. Once exchanged, agreed norms of orbit maintenance and deconfliction measures will need to be established between operators. Additionally, the real-time monitoring and adjustment of constellations within a congested environment will drive a level of system autonomy currently unseen in current operations.<\/p>\n

Added to this, the increasing miniaturisation of spacecraft\u2014exemplified by the growth of \u2018cubesats\u2019\u2014will challenge the ability of existing surveillance systems to track and identify objects in orbit. The distribution of missions across multiple satellites has meant a steady reduction in object size, while modular construction techniques will make more satellites appear alike to external ground- and space-based observers.<\/p>\n

Miniaturisation and modularisation offer twin challenges\u2014first the ability to detect and track objects, and second to characterise these objects and associate them with an owner-operator. For example, the bulk of the manifest for the record-setting launch of 104\u00a0satellites<\/a> on an Indian PSLV\u00a0rocket in February\u00a02017 comprised essentially identical cubesats, which caused identification challenges when they separated from the booster.<\/p>\n

These challenges drive a requirement for active identification methods, similar to the radio transponders used by aircraft. However, unless they\u2019re motivated by an understanding of the benefits of \u2018best practice\u2019 space operations, owner-operators seeking to prioritise payload space on their spacecraft might treat such measures as being of secondary importance.<\/p>\n

Finally, the shrinking costs of entry into space operations enable a range of new players with little or no experience to push the boundaries of missions, orbits and spacecraft design. This newfound access requires the space community to answer not only the question of \u2018Can we do it?\u2019, but also \u2018Is it a good idea?\u2019<\/p>\n

Missions such as the crowd-funded \u2018Kicksat\u2019\u2014which planned to dispense \u2018chipsats\u2019<\/a> the size of credit cards (while short-lived, these were essentially untrackable by existing surveillance sensors)\u2014raise the issue of the bounds of reasonable operations in space. In a similar vein, the recent launch of US\u00a0satellites (on an Indian launcher) that had been denied FCC\u00a0approval to operate<\/a> highlights at best gaps in current regulation, and indicates at worst a \u2018Wild West\u2019 mentality among some of those hungry to exploit new opportunities.<\/p>\n

In combination, these challenges have the potential to place at risk the safe operation of other spacecraft, and by extension entire orbital regimes. As demonstrated by the accidental collision<\/a> between an Iridium spacecraft and a decommissioned Russian surveillance satellite, damage to the space environment has the potential to remain a factor for many years to come. With a significant increase in the number of space objects, the risks of cascading consequences from one mistake (the so-called \u2018Kessler Syndrome<\/a>\u2019) are also enhanced.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t to say that we should discourage space activities. Australia should take advantage of the opportunities presented by space, and where possible reduce the barriers to entry. But such measures should be tempered by sufficient regulation and norms of behaviour to minimise environmental risks, and to maintain the long-term viability of space operations. Thus, the management of space within Australia will need to not only consider the industrial aspects of space, but the safe operation of orbital missions.<\/p>\n

The exploitation of new opportunities in space has the potential to significantly benefit many aspects of Australian society. However, like all the other global commons accessed by humanity, there are always risks to accompany the potential rewards. As space becomes more congested and competitive, it behoves us to manage our responsibilities properly to ensure that space remains a source of prosperity into the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is the 15th in our series \u2018Australia in Space\u2019 leading up to ASPI\u2019s\u00a0Building Australia\u2019s Strategy for Space\u00a0conference. Recent years have seen an explosion of optimism around our ability to reach and exploit space, with …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":813,"featured_media":39763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2029],"class_list":["post-39738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-space-2-0","dinkus-building-australias-strategy-for-space"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBalancing the risks and rewards of space | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/balancing-the-risks-and-rewards-of-space\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Balancing the risks and rewards of space | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is the 15th in our series \u2018Australia in Space\u2019 leading up to ASPI\u2019s\u00a0Building Australia\u2019s Strategy for Space\u00a0conference. 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