{"id":39822,"date":"2018-06-07T14:30:53","date_gmt":"2018-06-07T04:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39822"},"modified":"2018-06-07T09:38:15","modified_gmt":"2018-06-06T23:38:15","slug":"quitaly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/","title":{"rendered":"Quitaly?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Europe\u2019s problems just seem to grow worse. The huge and continuing dislocation caused by Brexit is bad enough, but the news is also disturbing on several other fronts.<\/p>\n

The continued weakening of Germany\u2019s (and its chancellor\u2019s) authority in Europe and globally as a result of the introspection and fractiousness of the new Grand Coalition (Groko) government, and concerns about Angela Merkel\u2019s longevity, have left a vacuum where Germany\u2019s leadership used to be. France\u2019s President Emmanuel Macron has stepped into this breach. But he can do little without a solid partner in Germany. In any case, differences between Merkel\u2019s and Macron\u2019s visions for the future of Europe and the eurozone remain.<\/p>\n

The challenge posed to the European project by the continued success of populist\/nationalist governments in Europe is also growing. Germany and France (which also have to confront their own versions) now face a large group of European countries with governments that disagree quite fundamentally with the way in which Europe has evolved. They want significant changes, mainly to return sovereignty to national governments and\u2014as they would describe it\u2014to push back against the idea of a Europe run from Berlin.<\/p>\n

And all of this comes at a time when the post\u2013World War\u00a0II bedrock of European security, the transatlantic alliance and the US\u00a0security guarantee, appears to be crumbling. The Trump administration\u2019s decision to impose tariffs on products from close US\u00a0friends and allies in Europe has just underlined how much and how comprehensively things have now changed.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the Putin factor, with Russia aiming to weaken Europe by fomenting disagreement, including through support for the populist\/nationalist parties that are so significantly reshaping politics in the West.<\/p>\n

But life isn\u2019t about to get any better for the European project. The crisis has just deepened with the arrival of Italy\u2019s new Five Star Movement (M5S)\u2013League government and, although not quite as concerning, of a new Spanish government.<\/p>\n

The bigger problem is Italy, a founding member of the European Union, and the eurozone\u2019s third-largest and the world\u2019s 12th\u2011largest economy, so not a small or insignificant country. Although Italy\u2019s economy is slowly recovering, with GDP growth this year forecast at\u00a01.5%, it faces endemic problems. To mention a few: a chaotic political system and a parliament that has generally found it impossible to implement any reform; a massive imbalance between Italy\u2019s poor south and its wealthy north; Europe\u2019s second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio at\u00a0132% (in absolute terms, Europe\u2019s largest debt); 32%\u00a0youth unemployment across the country, but vastly higher in the south; and serious issues with some of Italy\u2019s banks.<\/p>\n

Extreme popular frustration at this state of affairs, especially in southern Italy, some clever politicking by the charismatic leaders of M5S (Luigi di Maio) and the League (Matteo Salvini), and huge disappointment with the established parties are behind the success of the two groups in the new government.<\/p>\n

M5S, a \u2018movement\u2019 (not, it has always claimed, a party) founded by comedian Beppe Grillo to give voice to popular anger, ended up as the largest single party after the elections on 4\u00a0March this year, with particularly strong support in the south.<\/p>\n

The League was part of a centre-right group of parties that included Silvio Berlusconi\u2019s Forza Italia and did very well in the north and centre of Italy. That\u2019s not surprising since the party emerged from the Northern League, which advocated cutting the north away from what it considered the dead weight of southern Italy and gaining independence. This was evident when the newly appointed (League) minister for regional affairs and autonomy indicated last week that her priority was to grant autonomy to Lombardy (Milan) and the Veneto (Venice).<\/p>\n

M5S had said it would never enter government as part of a coalition. The League professed loyalty to its centre-right grouping. Both positions were sacrificed in the interests of attaining government. On the face of it, they\u2019re very strange bedfellows, united largely by their opposition to the established system, their very strong anti\u2011immigrant stance and their deep scepticism about the euro and the European Union. They have an economic policy based on tax cuts, significant financial support for the poor and big government spending, taking on more debt as necessary.<\/p>\n

The new government\u2019s euroscepticism, its equivocal position on the euro, its intention, contrary to eurozone rules, to spend its way to economic recovery and its quite virulent criticism of Germany\u2019s and Brussels\u2019 roles in Europe will all put it completely at odds with the approach taken by Merkel and Macron.<\/p>\n

The M5S\u2013League government is led by a complete political novice in Giuseppe Conte. But it\u2019s hard to imagine that his two deputies\u2014di Maio and Salvini\u2014will give him much room for manoeuvre. Italian President Sergio Mattarella refused to accept as economics minister the notoriously anti-European Paolo Savona, who once famously described the euro as a \u2018German cage\u2019 and speculated about a \u2018plan B\u2019 of withdrawal from the euro. But Savona has been made, in yet another weird twist, minister for European affairs. And, to muddy the waters even further, the new foreign minister, Enzo Milanesi, is pro-European: he worked in Brussels and was minister for European affairs in the recent Monti and Letta governments.<\/p>\n

According to Simon French, a business commentator, \u2018Quitaly\u2019 is the term being used on London City dealing desks to describe a potential departure by Italy from the European Monetary Union<\/a>. The new government is suggesting publicly that, although it wants fundamental change, it will remain with the euro and the European Union. But given the disparity of views in Conte\u2019s cabinet and among both M5S and League supporters, that must remain an open question, as must the longevity and fortunes of the M5S\u2013League government.<\/p>\n

It is just too hard to predict right now how all of this will work out. One thing is certain: it must be almost the last thing that Chancellor Merkel and President Macron (or Europe more generally) needed given everything else that\u2019s happening. It must have been a very interesting conversation between Merkel and Conte when she rang him on 2\u00a0June to congratulate him and invite him to visit Berlin \u2018as soon as possible\u2019, no doubt to receive some clear advice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Europe\u2019s problems just seem to grow worse. The huge and continuing dislocation caused by Brexit is bad enough, but the news is also disturbing on several other fronts. The continued weakening of Germany\u2019s (and its …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":579,"featured_media":39824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1025,2131,1734],"class_list":["post-39822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-european-union","tag-italy","tag-populism"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuitaly? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quitaly? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s problems just seem to grow worse. The huge and continuing dislocation caused by Brexit is bad enough, but the news is also disturbing on several other fronts. The continued weakening of Germany\u2019s (and its ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-07T04:30:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-06-06T23:38:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"319\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Ritchie\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Ritchie\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg\",\"width\":500,\"height\":319},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/\",\"name\":\"Quitaly? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-07T04:30:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-06-06T23:38:15+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/506fd496b23b7c2d7cc286f95eeeeb89\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Quitaly?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/506fd496b23b7c2d7cc286f95eeeeb89\",\"name\":\"David Ritchie\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cdf4f5c58d1e76f6a2b37eb4c81b4963?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cdf4f5c58d1e76f6a2b37eb4c81b4963?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"David Ritchie\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/david-ritchie\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Quitaly? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Quitaly? | The Strategist","og_description":"Europe\u2019s problems just seem to grow worse. The huge and continuing dislocation caused by Brexit is bad enough, but the news is also disturbing on several other fronts. The continued weakening of Germany\u2019s (and its ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2018-06-07T04:30:53+00:00","article_modified_time":"2018-06-06T23:38:15+00:00","og_image":[{"width":500,"height":319,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"David Ritchie","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"David Ritchie","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/128552164_8ea5273f65_z-e1528328122599.jpg","width":500,"height":319},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/","name":"Quitaly? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2018-06-07T04:30:53+00:00","dateModified":"2018-06-06T23:38:15+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/506fd496b23b7c2d7cc286f95eeeeb89"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/quitaly\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Quitaly?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/506fd496b23b7c2d7cc286f95eeeeb89","name":"David Ritchie","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cdf4f5c58d1e76f6a2b37eb4c81b4963?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/cdf4f5c58d1e76f6a2b37eb4c81b4963?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"David Ritchie"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/david-ritchie\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39822"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/579"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39822"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39826,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39822\/revisions\/39826"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}