{"id":39845,"date":"2018-06-08T06:00:59","date_gmt":"2018-06-07T20:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39845"},"modified":"2018-06-08T09:38:09","modified_gmt":"2018-06-07T23:38:09","slug":"indo-pacific-re-revise-and-resubmit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indo-pacific-re-revise-and-resubmit\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019: (re-)revise and resubmit"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

At the 17th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) last weekend, the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 was the leitmotif. From Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi and US\u00a0Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis to the defence ministers of Japan, Australia and France, all referred to, if not elaborated on, their vision of the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019.<\/p>\n

While the SLD marked an important articulation of the Indo-Pacific, the scope, objectives and nature of this brewing concept \/ construct \/ strategy \/ initiative \/geographic term \/ all of above remain open questions for many. There\u2019s no one \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019. Instead, there are many.<\/p>\n

Modi sketched<\/a> India\u2019s geographically wide and historically deep relationships with many of the key actors and institutions he believes have critical roles in the Indo-Pacific. In Modi\u2019s view the Indo-Pacific is a place that embraces us all, big or small, with no one dominating centre of power. At its core, India\u2019s conception is of a \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019. More importantly, Modi\u2019s statement that the Indo-Pacific shouldn\u2019t exclude any power suggests India\u2019s preference for multipolarity.<\/p>\n

General Mattis\u2019 powerful speech<\/a> served a dual purpose: sending warning signals to some, while reassuring others, that the US is staying in the region. The maritime domain\u2014in particular China\u2019s violation of international law in militarising reefs and islets in the South China Sea\u2014exemplified what isn\u2019t welcome in the American vision of the Indo-Pacific. Disinviting China to this year\u2019s RIMPAC exercises was a small consequence for Beijing\u2019s misalignment with principles the US holds dear, and with what Mattis also termed the \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019. More and bigger consequences would follow if China\u2019s threatening behaviour in the South China Sea continued.<\/p>\n

\u2018The maritime domain is back<\/a>\u2019, observed one of the SLD panel chairs in his opening remarks. Not because maritime disputes had ever gone away, but because of Mattis bringing the issue back to international attention by addressing head-on China\u2019s military activities in the South China Sea. Mattis had plenty of company, with a number of other countries joining in and emphasising that free and open navigation, as well as a regard for international rules and norms, is required if the region is to prosper and remain secure.<\/p>\n

Mattis had more to say<\/a> about consequences for those who don\u2019t stick to the rules-based order. While his blunt message was welcomed by virtually everyone, addressing the South China Sea alone isn\u2019t enough. Missing from the defence secretary\u2019s presentation was any indication of plans for the vast landmass within the Indo-Pacific region.<\/p>\n

Another area yet to be clarified is how the differing visions of the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 relate to each other. While dwelling on definitions might not be policymakers\u2019 favourite thing, it\u2019s necessary to reach a common understanding of interests and objectives.<\/p>\n

Modi hoped for a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific devoid of great power rivalries. Mattis presented a similar concept, adding that the US has offered a compelling alternative to those engaging in \u2018predatory economics\u2019: \u2018[W]e will never ask our partners to surrender their sovereignty or intellectual property. We don\u2019t dream of domination.\u2019<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the allergic reaction of Asian powers\u2014including India and Southeast Asian states\u2014to publicly \u2018taking sides\u2019, a number of uncertainties, if not addressed, will limit the larger region\u2019s embrace of America\u2019s vision of the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

My main concern, however, isn\u2019t definitions or the inter-relatedness of the many conceptions of the Indo-Pacific, but rather the very core of current US strategy. Mattis placed the Indo-Pacific as a subset of the larger American \u2018Look West\u2019 strategy based on three key pillars: deepening alliances, ASEAN centrality and cooperation with China where possible. The problem is that all three of these pillars are shaky.<\/p>\n

Under President Donald Trump, US alliance relationships are deteriorating. His view that allies are burdens has been reiterated multiple times and has sent ripples of discomfort among many of Washington\u2019s long-term allies. Trump\u2019s \u2018trade war\u2019 agenda has affected more US allies than has China itself. If Trump\u2019s attitude towards America\u2019s allies doesn\u2019t change, the US risks losing its largest strategic asset.<\/p>\n

ASEAN centrality is aspirational\u2014still imagined rather than realistic. The construct is now an important component in the success of the Indo-Pacific even as it\u2019s diminishing among Southeast Asians themselves. To focus the Indo-Pacific around ASEAN centrality risks the whole idea suffering the same fate\u2014existing as an elusive and aspirational ideal, rather than becoming a reality.<\/p>\n

Cooperation with China is another area in which the prospects for success appear to be receding more and more rapidly. Under Presidents Trump and Xi\u00a0Jinping, the relationship has been turbulent and difficult. Trump has vowed to confront China\u2019s exclusionary trade and intellectual property behaviour, as well as China\u2019s creeping military build-up and coercive behaviour towards Taiwan. Washington\u2019s new National Security Strategy<\/a> and National Defense Strategy<\/a> label China a strategic competitor.<\/p>\n

In sum, the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 concept is a timely and much needed initiative that has already gained support among America\u2019s like-minded friends. But for it to really succeed, it needs greater strategic clarity and coherence. More importantly, US leadership and commitment towards the region and its allies and partners needs stronger development.<\/p>\n

While many in the audience in Singapore wouldn\u2019t have a problem with Mattis\u2019 leadership style, leadership \u00e0 la Trump is considerably less appealing. Moreover, there\u2019s a concern that the Indo-Pacific, if not carefully tended, might share the Trans-Pacific Partnership\u2019s fate\u2014an idea already being floated in the region picked up and promoted under American auspices, only later to be abandoned because it didn\u2019t enjoy domestic support.<\/p>\n

To avoid that happening, the relationship between the commitment to the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 region and \u2018America First\u2019 must be carefully explained by President Trump and his cabinet team to both domestic and international audiences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the 17th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) last weekend, the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 was the leitmotif. From Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi and US\u00a0Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis to the defence ministers of Japan, Australia and France, all …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":755,"featured_media":39846,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,56,2070],"class_list":["post-39845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-indo-pacific","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019: (re-)revise and resubmit | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indo-pacific-re-revise-and-resubmit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019: (re-)revise and resubmit | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At the 17th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) last weekend, the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 was the leitmotif. 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