{"id":39894,"date":"2018-06-09T09:00:32","date_gmt":"2018-06-08T23:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39894"},"modified":"2018-06-09T10:42:20","modified_gmt":"2018-06-09T00:42:20","slug":"the-north-korean-peace-train-is-leaving-backwards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-north-korean-peace-train-is-leaving-backwards\/","title":{"rendered":"The North Korean peace train is leaving backwards"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The 12\u00a0June summit between Kim Jong\u2011un and Donald Trump is almost upon us, and already some pretty fundamental shifts<\/a> have occurred in the US\u00a0negotiating position. Previously the US has sought to apply \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 through economic sanctions against the regime in Pyongyang in order to get North Korea to make concrete steps towards complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation (CVID) as part of any deal.<\/p>\n

Now, the US seems ready to sit down with Kim and negotiate a peace agreement<\/a>, eschew<\/a> \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 and put off CVID for another day. All while giving Kim the prestige of a face-to-face meeting with a sitting US\u00a0president, and in doing so, implicitly recognising North Korea as a nuclear-weapons state.<\/p>\n

Never have so many concessions been offered to North Korea for so little in return.<\/p>\n

The North Koreans have frozen nuclear and missile testing. Both freezes are entirely reversible. Let\u2019s start with nuclear testing. The supposed destruction of the Punggye\u2011Ri nuclear test site was largely stage-managed<\/a>. Only the entrances to the testing tunnels collapsed\u2014not the tunnels themselves. At least two of the three tunnels could be quickly re-opened. Also, all critical equipment and material related to nuclear testing was moved from the facility before the show opened for international media\u2014sans nuclear inspectors from the IAEA\u2014who arrived after riding in a sealed train for 11\u00a0hours.<\/p>\n

The missile freeze is just that\u2014a freeze that could quickly be reversed. In any case, North Korea is pretty close to perfecting a long-range delivery system for its nuclear weapons with its Hwasong\u00a015 and Hwasong\u00a014 ICBMs, and already has a potent medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missile capability that can threaten Japan and Guam.<\/p>\n

Certainly, North Korea has released three US\u00a0hostages as well. That\u2019s an easy concession to make: it costs nothing, but delivers big dividends by making it easier for the Trump administration to talk to Kim.<\/p>\n

Finally, in late April, Kim stepped across the border in South Korea and engaged in cross-border photo\u2011op diplomacy in late April with President Moon Jae\u2011in, but the Panmunjom Declaration<\/a> was long on rhetorical fluff and had little of meaningful substance. Yet the Moon\u2013Kim summit psychologically paved the way for Trump to quickly embrace the idea of a summit with Kim and a possible quick foreign policy victory (with cries of \u2018Nobel Peace Prize\u2019 echoing in his ears).<\/p>\n

Talk they will on 12\u00a0June (barring unexpected Twitter storms). Trump has indicated that it\u2019s now a \u2018get to know you\u2019<\/a> summit, where the emphasis would be on working towards an agreement to bring the technical state of war between the two Koreas to an end. Yet a peace treaty between the two Koreas, China and the US would immediately imply that economic sanctions be lifted and security assurances be provided.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s something Trump has hinted at in now refusing to talk about \u2018maximum pressure\u2019, and that weakens international resolve to re\u2011impose pressure if the North Koreans, as they have done in the past, cheat on any agreement going forward.<\/p>\n

Most worryingly, the North Koreans might very well insist that US\u00a0forces in South Korea be scaled back, removed or given a non\u2011combat role because \u2018peace in our time\u2019 is at hand.<\/p>\n

Signing a peace treaty does nothing to force North Korea to give up its nukes or its long-range missiles. Trump seems to have accepted that \u2018denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula\u2019\u2014a phrase used by Pyongyang, and which Trump used in a recent press conference<\/a> with Japanese PM Shinz\u014d Abe\u2014is now going to be achieved only by an extended and protracted process, rather than a rapid elimination of the North Korean nuclear arsenal. Yet, so far, there\u2019s no firm and explicit commitment from Pyongyang to eliminate its own nuclear weapons and its full range of ballistic missiles as part of this process.<\/p>\n

The North Korean definition of \u2018denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula\u2019 is important because it implies a likely demand for not only withdrawal of US\u00a0forces in South Korea at some point, reinforced by a peace treaty, but also a withdrawal of US\u00a0nuclear security guarantees to both South Korea and<\/em> Japan.<\/p>\n

Pyongyang would argue that US nuclear forces for extended nuclear deterrence to Japan can equally target North Korea. They\u2019ll accept that the US won\u2019t eliminate those forces, but it\u2019s quite possible they\u2019ll demand the elimination of extended nuclear deterrence security guarantees as an alternative, as part of broader security assurances to the regime.<\/p>\n

Trump would be extremely foolish to accept such a demand. Pulling US forces off the Korean peninsula would send a signal of a lack of US\u00a0resolve and commitment to partners. Compounding that with a diminution or weakening of extended nuclear deterrence security guarantees would only weaken US\u00a0influence further. That could drive Tokyo towards acquiring its own nuclear deterrent forces.<\/p>\n

If the summit\u2014or any continuing diplomatic phase that follows it\u2014is to founder, it\u2019s going to be around this issue of the North\u2019s definition of \u2018denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula\u2019. While caught up in the drama of the off\u2011again, on\u2011again summit, and whether Trump will \u2018wing it\u2019 on the day in the hope of a deal he can sell to his domestic base as a foreign policy victory, there\u2019s a real danger that assumptions are being made that the North Koreans are willing to denuclearise when, in fact, they most likely won\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Also, the North Koreans have to agree to eliminate their full range of ballistic missiles\u2014not just ICBMs. Allowing short-, medium- and intermediate-range weapons to remain leaves South Korea and Japan still under threat, and that would further weaken US\u2013Japanese security ties. Trump shouldn\u2019t accept an offer by Pyongyang to eliminate its ICBMs only.<\/p>\n

The reality is that Pyongyang will use the summit, and follow-on diplomacy, to play for time and extract further concessions. It may make token gestures to entice Trump to sign a deal he can sell at home and string the Americans along. It\u2019s highly unlikely that North Korea intends to denuclearise. At some point, the Trump administration may realise that its dream has become a nightmare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 12\u00a0June summit between Kim Jong\u2011un and Donald Trump is almost upon us, and already some pretty fundamental shifts have occurred in the US\u00a0negotiating position. Previously the US has sought to apply \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 through …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":39905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,702,86],"class_list":["post-39894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-north-korea","dinkus-trump-kim-summit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe North Korean peace train is leaving backwards | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-north-korean-peace-train-is-leaving-backwards\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The North Korean peace train is leaving backwards | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The 12\u00a0June summit between Kim Jong\u2011un and Donald Trump is almost upon us, and already some pretty fundamental shifts have occurred in the US\u00a0negotiating position. 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