{"id":39917,"date":"2018-06-12T11:22:55","date_gmt":"2018-06-12T01:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39917"},"modified":"2018-06-12T11:22:55","modified_gmt":"2018-06-12T01:22:55","slug":"trumps-iran-strategy-policy-implications-for-australia-in-the-middle-east-and-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-iran-strategy-policy-implications-for-australia-in-the-middle-east-and-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Iran strategy: policy implications for Australia in the Middle East and Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s \u2018Iran strategy\u2019, summarised in a White House media release<\/a> on 8\u00a0May and fleshed out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo<\/a> in a speech in Washington on 21\u00a0May, has significant direct and indirect policy implications for Australia.<\/p>\n

Both Trump and Pompeo made it clear that the US\u00a0withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal is only one part of a broader strategy to end Iran\u2019s \u2018malign activities\u2019 regionally. Options within the strategy include forcing \u2018regime change\u2019 by breaking Iran\u2019s economy if the Iranians fail to meet all US\u00a0demands.<\/p>\n

Both men also confirmed that the economic interests of the Europeans and others\u2014including, by implication, Australia\u2019s\u2014are expendable unless they coincide with Trump\u2019s \u2018my way\u2019 strategy<\/a>. For Australian policymakers, it must now be clear\u2014if it were ever in doubt\u2014where Australia and others fit within Trump\u2019s worldview.<\/p>\n

Trump is highly egotistical and unconventional\u2014a deal-maker, a risk-taker and a firm believer that might is right. His supporters see him as gutsy and outcomes-driven. He makes things happen, and is refreshingly unconstrained by stodgy international norms of diplomacy. His detractors see him as unpredictable and untrustworthy, whether dealing with friends or foes. But many see Trump as a mix of both, depending on the circumstances.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s overriding commitment, as for all his predecessors, is to put American interests first and make America great again. All his actions derive from this. He interprets\u2014or makes up\u2014the rules to accommodate his \u2018my way\u2019 strategy. But this hasn\u2019t diminished the importance of the Australia\u2013US bilateral relationship.<\/p>\n

On most major foreign policy issues, US and Australian interests have generally coincided. Where differences have occurred, the principals and officials have worked through them, drawing on the relationship\u2019s historic goodwill and agreeing to respect and accept differing views.<\/p>\n

But changes in personalities and policies serve as a reminder that neither Australia nor other allies and friends can be complacent about their relationships with the\u00a0US, and that goodwill has its limitations where national interests, however defined, are contested.<\/p>\n

In the Middle East, Australian policy objectives broadly coincide with those of the US. We want a de\u2011escalation of tensions and conflict, non\u2011proliferation of nuclear weapons, and progress towards security and stability. Where we differ, as in the case of Iran, is in how to reach that goal.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull unequivocally supported the European position<\/a> in a statement on 9\u00a0May, calling for the US to remain in the JCPOA and to work through its issues with Iran within that framework. Australia has a stake in the issue, in both politico\/strategic and economic terms. Unlike the Europeans, however, Australia\u2019s not a direct participant in the escalating transatlantic test of wills. Nor does it have billions of dollars in trade and investment under direct threat as a result of Trump\u2019s strategy.<\/p>\n

Economically, Australian two-way trade and investment with Iran<\/a> in 2016\u201317 was a modest AUS$446\u00a0million, comprising exports of $265\u00a0million and imports of $181\u00a0million. Even so, Australia isn\u2019t completely \u00a0immune to the direct cost of US\u00a0sanctions and their chilling effect on new trade. While most of Australia\u2019s trade falls outside the scope of current sanctions, an as-yet-unquantifiable amount is expected to be adversely affected by both US \u2018snap-back sanctions\u2019 and other punitive measures.<\/p>\n

Nor is Australia immune to potential indirect costs. If US\u00a0targeting of Iran\u2019s oil exports results in a global shortage of oil, every Australian motorist will be hit by higher prices at the petrol pump. At this stage, other Gulf producers are expected to make up for any shortage, but expectations aren\u2019t guarantees.<\/p>\n

Turnbull\u2019s support of the European position could be tested in two possible ways. The first could involve Australia becoming embroiled in a transatlantic stand-off, for example if the Europeans negotiate what they consider an acceptable supplementary deal with Iran that Trump then rejects. That assumes that the Europeans can reach such a deal. Iran\u2019s commitment is a key factor here. If it pulls out of the JCPOA itself, or recommences uranium enrichment, all bets will be off.<\/p>\n

The second test could occur if Trump pursues his proposed \u2018broad coalition of nations<\/a> to deny Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and to counter the totality of the regime\u2019s malign activities\u2019, and asks Australia to join. Pompeo explicitly identified Australia<\/a>, India, Japan and South Korea\u2014together with other Gulf and Arab states\u2014as countries that he wants in the coalition. He didn\u2019t specify any countries from Europe, Africa or Latin America. Naming the first four countries implies a quid quo pro for US\u00a0support and solidarity in Asia, which is especially relevant given Trump\u2019s quest to denuclearise North Korea and guarantee freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

Whatever the outcome of Europe\u2019s efforts to salvage the JCPOA, it\u2019s essential that the\u00a0US see Australia\u2019s position for what it is\u2014standing firm on the principle of supporting a UN\u2011approved agreement, particularly where compliance with conditions has been consistently verified.<\/p>\n

Australia should firmly decline any invitation to join a new \u2018broad coalition\u2019. There\u2019s no suggestion of a UN\u00a0mandate for such a coalition, and Australia would be a token player only, with no controlling interest. Also, the proposed coalition\u2019s mandate is wide open, and could extend to an expectation of military support.<\/p>\n

Arguably, Australia could contribute considerably more to its Middle East policy commitments from outside, rather than from within, any improvised coalition. Asian quid pro quo calculations don\u2019t apply\u2014Australia already fully pulls its weight in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

While the Middle East is important, the Indo-Pacific is crucial for Australia. It\u2019s Australia\u2019s primary area of political, military, economic and strategic interest. It\u2019s where the Australia\u2013US bilateral relationship counts most. The challenge for Australia is to ensure consultation on how to reach mutual goals without compromising its interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump\u2019s \u2018Iran strategy\u2019, summarised in a White House media release on 8\u00a0May and fleshed out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a speech in Washington on 21\u00a0May, has significant direct and indirect policy …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":39920,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,285,247],"class_list":["post-39917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-foreign-policy","tag-iran","dinkus-us-withdrawal-from-jcpoa"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s Iran strategy: policy implications for Australia in the Middle East and Asia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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