{"id":3992,"date":"2013-02-14T13:00:46","date_gmt":"2013-02-14T03:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=3992"},"modified":"2013-02-15T15:16:15","modified_gmt":"2013-02-15T05:16:15","slug":"managing-incidents-at-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/","title":{"rendered":"Managing incidents at sea"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Exclusive<\/a><\/figure>\n

Recent incidents between Chinese and Japanese warships and aircraft in the\u00a0East China Sea\u00a0have renewed interest in confidence-building measures (CBMs) to prevent potential conflict.\u00a0The situation is\u00a0getting serious up there:\u00a0Japan alleges that a Chinese frigate locked its\u00a0fire-control radar<\/a>\u00a0onto one of its destroyers\u00a0on 30 January, following a\u00a019 January\u00a0incident when a Chinese\u00a0warship aimed its fire control radar at a Japanese military helicopter.\u00a0The Chinese have denied both incidents,\u00a0but they are plausible enough, and might well\u00a0have\u00a0occurred\u2014and could certainly\u00a0occur in the future.<\/p>\n

This kind of situation is a possible path to an escalation that isn\u2019t in anyone\u2019s interest. Illuminating another ship or aircraft with fire control radar is risky because it displays hostile intent. It\u2019s a precursor to locking on a gun or missile system, and\u00a0could\u00a0signify the\u00a0intent to open fire. However, other explanations are possible. It\u00a0might\u00a0be an individual ship acting carelessly, perhaps even a radar operator acting without authority. Or it\u00a0could be an intentional action to trigger an electronic response from the other vessel that might provide valuable signals intelligence (SIGINT).<\/p>\n

The\u00a01972 US\u2013USSR Agreement on Prevention of Incidents at Sea (INCSEA)<\/a>\u00a0is the best known CBM to prevent and manage an untoward incident between opposing maritime forces. Similar agreements were also negotiated between the Soviet Union and several Western European navies, while\u00a0Russia\u00a0later signed INCSEAs with\u00a0Japan\u00a0and\u00a0South Korea.\u00a0However, there\u2019s nothing similar at present between\u00a0China\u00a0and\u00a0Japan, or\u00a0China\u00a0and the\u00a0US.<\/p>\n

The US\u2013USSR agreement forbade ships from conducting acts similar to those\u00a0that have been reported lately\u00a0in the\u00a0East China Sea.\u00a0More specifically,\u00a0article 6 of the agreement<\/a>\u00a0states:\u00a0\u2018Ships of the Parties shall not simulate attacks by aiming guns, missile launchers, torpedo tubes and other weapons in the direction of a passing ship of the other Party\u2019.<\/p>\n

Negotiating a similar agreement between\u00a0China\u00a0and\u00a0Japan, or\u00a0China\u00a0and the\u00a0US, is problematic.\u00a0This is because previous INCSEAs applied only to activities on or over the high seas, where much Cold War naval confrontation occurred.\u00a0But in the western Pacific\u00a0the waters where any regional agreement should apply\u00a0are not high seas\u2014they\u2019re exclusive economic zones (EEZs).\u00a0Negotiations would open up differing views about the rights of other states to conduct military activities in an EEZ without permission of the coastal state. The US regards these rights as part of customary freedoms of navigation and\u00a0overflight\u00a0while\u00a0China adopts the opposing view<\/a>, along with\u00a0Malaysia and Thailand.\u00a0All three countries have regulations that restrict the right of other countries to conduct military activities in their EEZ.<\/p>\n

Moreover, an INCSEA between the\u00a0US\u00a0and\u00a0China\u00a0might\u00a0be unattractive to both countries. They might consider such an agreement as an admission that adversarial tensions existed between them. The Americans might\u00a0resist elevating\u00a0China\u00a0to a status akin to the Cold War Soviet Union, and might\u00a0also see it as a\u00a0\u2018slippery slope\u2019 towards constraints on naval operations, particularly in an EEZ.\u00a0Also,\u00a0the Chinese believe that direct CBMs can only occur once strategic trust has been established. An agreement to consult, such as already exists between the two countries with the\u00a01998 Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA)<\/a>\u00a0is probably the most that\u00a0can be expected for the time being.<\/p>\n

As an example of the difficulty in achieving these kinds of agreements, in\u00a0the early 2000s, I was a member of a study group established by the Ocean Policy Research Foundation (OPRF) of\u00a0Japan\u00a0to clarify the rights and duties of coastal and user states in an EEZ. We developed\u00a0\u2018Guidelines for Navigation and\u00a0Overflight\u00a0in the Exclusive Economic Zone\u2019<\/a>\u00a0(PDF).\u00a0The need for these guidelines was prompted by incidents such as the collision\u00a0between a USN EP-3 aircraft and a Chinese fighter off\u00a0Hainan\u00a0in 2001. The OPRF guidelines are broad principles of common understanding regarding navigation and\u00a0overflight\u00a0in an EEZ, including military and intelligence gathering activities. One guideline requires ships and aircraft of a state conducting military activities in the EEZ of another state to refrain from\u00a0\u2018the threat or use of force, or provocative acts, such as stimulating or exciting the defensive systems of the coastal State\u2019.<\/p>\n

We hoped that the guidelines\u00a0would form\u00a0an important CBM, but they\u00a0haven\u2019t been endorsed by any regional forum, and the\u00a0US appears opposed to their concept<\/a>.\u00a0So\u00a0the OPRF commenced work late last year to revise the guidelines,\u00a0with a view to making them more acceptable to all concerned. Following the recent incidents, this work has become even more important.<\/p>\n

Operational CBMs are a priority for the East China Sea, as well as for the\u00a0South China Sea. These include a common interpretation of navigational rights and freedoms in an EEZ and measures to prevent and mitigate the risks of an unfortunate incident between naval forces. However,\u00a0it\u2019s a shame that\u00a0no regional forum has been prepared to take on developing these CBMs. Among the forums currently available, the Maritime Security Working Group established by the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+) would seem most appropriate.<\/p>\n

Sam Bateman is a professorial research fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources & Security (ANCORS), University of Wollongong. Image courtesy of Flickr user sam_churchill<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent incidents between Chinese and Japanese warships and aircraft in the\u00a0East China Sea\u00a0have renewed interest in confidence-building measures (CBMs) to prevent potential conflict.\u00a0The situation is\u00a0getting serious up there:\u00a0Japan alleges that a Chinese frigate locked its\u00a0fire-control …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":3997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nManaging incidents at sea | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Managing incidents at sea | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Recent incidents between Chinese and Japanese warships and aircraft in the\u00a0East China Sea\u00a0have renewed interest in confidence-building measures (CBMs) to prevent potential conflict.\u00a0The situation is\u00a0getting serious up there:\u00a0Japan alleges that a Chinese frigate locked its\u00a0fire-control ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-02-14T03:00:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2013-02-15T05:16:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"296\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"381\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sam Bateman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sam Bateman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg\",\"width\":296,\"height\":381,\"caption\":\"Exclusive Economic Zone\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\",\"name\":\"Managing incidents at sea | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-14T03:00:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-02-15T05:16:15+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c581e249d34a24c68e74e7145c6be023\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Managing incidents at sea\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c581e249d34a24c68e74e7145c6be023\",\"name\":\"Sam Bateman\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a818b64692a0f8b260f9767884050789?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a818b64692a0f8b260f9767884050789?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Sam Bateman\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/sam-bateman\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Managing incidents at sea | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Managing incidents at sea | The Strategist","og_description":"Recent incidents between Chinese and Japanese warships and aircraft in the\u00a0East China Sea\u00a0have renewed interest in confidence-building measures (CBMs) to prevent potential conflict.\u00a0The situation is\u00a0getting serious up there:\u00a0Japan alleges that a Chinese frigate locked its\u00a0fire-control ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2013-02-14T03:00:46+00:00","article_modified_time":"2013-02-15T05:16:15+00:00","og_image":[{"width":296,"height":381,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Sam Bateman","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Sam Bateman","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/5946259517_c0eb022df4_o.jpg","width":296,"height":381,"caption":"Exclusive Economic Zone"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/","name":"Managing incidents at sea | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2013-02-14T03:00:46+00:00","dateModified":"2013-02-15T05:16:15+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c581e249d34a24c68e74e7145c6be023"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Managing incidents at sea"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c581e249d34a24c68e74e7145c6be023","name":"Sam Bateman","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a818b64692a0f8b260f9767884050789?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a818b64692a0f8b260f9767884050789?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Sam Bateman"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/sam-bateman\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3992"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/93"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3992"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3992\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4027,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3992\/revisions\/4027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}