{"id":39950,"date":"2018-06-15T06:00:52","date_gmt":"2018-06-14T20:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39950"},"modified":"2022-02-03T17:07:06","modified_gmt":"2022-02-03T06:07:06","slug":"who-lost-the-south-china-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/","title":{"rendered":"Who lost the South China Sea?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken out<\/a> against China\u2019s strategy of \u2018intimidation and coercion\u2019 in the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic jammers, and, more recently, the landing of nuclear-capable bomber aircraft at Woody Island. There are, Mattis warned, \u2018consequences to China ignoring the international community\u2019.<\/p>\n

But what consequences? Two successive US administrations\u2014Barack Obama\u2019s and now Donald Trump\u2019s\u2014have failed to push back credibly against China\u2019s expansionism in the South China Sea, which has accelerated despite a 2016\u00a0international arbitral tribunal ruling<\/a> invalidating its territorial claims there. Instead, the\u00a0US has relied on rhetoric or symbolic actions.<\/p>\n

For example, the United States has disinvited China from this summer\u2019s 26\u2011country Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) naval exercise. The move has been played up as a potential indication that the\u00a0US may finally be adopting a tougher approach towards China. Mattis himself has called the decision an \u2018initial response\u2019 to China\u2019s militarisation of the South China Sea, which is twice the size of the Gulf of Mexico and 50%\u00a0bigger than the Mediterranean Sea.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the US\u00a0Navy\u2019s freedom of navigation (FON) operations<\/a>, which are occurring more regularly under Trump than they did under Obama, have been widely hyped. After the most recent operation, in which a guided-missile cruiser and a destroyer sailed past the disputed Paracel Islands, Mattis declared that the\u00a0US was the \u2018only country<\/a>\u2019 to stand up to China.<\/p>\n

But China, too, has used America\u2019s FON operations to play to the Chinese public, claiming<\/a> after the latest operation that its navy had \u2018warned and expelled\u2019 two US\u00a0warships. More important, neither FON operations nor China\u2019s exclusion from the RIMPAC exercise addresses the shifts in regional dynamics brought about by China\u2019s island-building and militarisation, not to mention its bullying of its neighbours. As a result, they will not credibly deter China or reassure US\u00a0allies.<\/p>\n

The reality is that China\u2019s incremental encroachments have collectively changed the facts in the South China Sea. It has consolidated its control over the strategic corridor between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, through which one\u2011third of global maritime trade\u2014worth $5.3\u00a0trillion last year\u2014passes. It is also asserting control over the region\u2019s natural resources, by bullying and coercing other claimants seeking to explore for oil and gas in territories that they themselves control under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Vietnam, for example, has been forced to scrap a project<\/a> on its own continental shelf.<\/p>\n

Perhaps most ominous, China\u2019s development of forward operating bases on man\u2011made South China Sea islands \u2018appears complete<\/a>\u2019, as Admiral Philip Davidson told a Senate committee in April before taking over the US\u00a0Indo-Pacific Command. \u2018China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the US,\u2019 Davidson confirmed.<\/p>\n

Davidson\u2019s characterisation is revealing. As China takes a long-term strategic approach to strengthening its hold over the South China Sea (and, increasingly, beyond), the\u00a0US is focused solely on the prospect of all\u2011out war.<\/p>\n

The Pentagon has flaunted its capability to demolish China\u2019s artificial islands, whose creation Chinese President Xi\u00a0Jinping has cited as one of his key accomplishments<\/a>. \u2018I would just tell you,\u2019 joint staff director Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie recently said, \u2018the US military has had a lot of experience in the western Pacific taking down small islands.\u2019<\/p>\n

If open war is China\u2019s only vulnerability in the South China Sea, the\u00a0US will lose the larger strategic competition. While seeking to protect its military freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, the\u00a0US has turned a blind eye to China\u2019s stealthy but aggressive assault<\/a> on the freedom of the seas, including restricting the rights of other countries in the region.<\/p>\n

The only viable option is a credible strategy that pushes back against China\u2019s use of coercion to advance its territorial and maritime revisionism. As Admiral Harry Harris cautioned<\/a> last month while departing as head of the US\u00a0Indo-Pacific Command, \u2018Without focused involvement and engagement by the\u00a0US and our allies and partners, China will realise its dream of hegemony in Asia.\u2019<\/p>\n

Simply put, China is winning the battle for the South China Sea without firing a shot\u2014or paying any international costs. While Trump is sustaining this trend, it began under Obama, on whose watch China created seven artificial islands and started militarising them.<\/p>\n

Obama\u2019s silence in\u00a02012 when China occupied the disputed Scarborough Shoal\u2014a traditional Philippine fishing ground located within that country\u2019s exclusive economic zone\u2014emboldened China to embark on a broader island-building strategy in the South China Sea the following year. By the time the\u00a0US realised the scope and scale of China\u2019s land-reclamation program, Russia grabbed its attention by annexing Crimea. Yet the long-term strategic implications of what China has achieved in the South China Sea are far more serious.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, when it comes to constraining China\u2019s expansionism, Trump seems just as clueless as his predecessor. Focused obsessively on three issues\u2014trade, North Korea and Iran\u2014Trump has watched quietly as China builds up its military assets through frenzied construction<\/a> of permanent facilities on newly reclaimed land. And now China has begun making strategic inroads in the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea, threatening the interests of more countries, from India to Japan.<\/p>\n

The South China Sea has been and will remain central to the contest for influence in the larger Indo-Pacific region. Thanks to US fecklessness, the widely shared vision of a free, open and democratic-led Indo-Pacific could give way to an illiberal, repressive regional order, with China in full control.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken out against China\u2019s strategy of \u2018intimidation and coercion\u2019 in the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic jammers, and, more recently, the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":39951,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,471,2070],"class_list":["post-39950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-south-china-sea","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWho lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken out against China\u2019s strategy of \u2018intimidation and coercion\u2019 in the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic jammers, and, more recently, the ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-14T20:00:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-03T06:07:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":480},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/\",\"name\":\"Who lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-14T20:00:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-03T06:07:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Who lost the South China Sea?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\",\"name\":\"Brahma Chellaney\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Brahma Chellaney\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Who lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Who lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist","og_description":"US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken out against China\u2019s strategy of \u2018intimidation and coercion\u2019 in the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic jammers, and, more recently, the ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2018-06-14T20:00:52+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-02-03T06:07:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":480,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Brahma Chellaney","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Brahma Chellaney","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/40871340021_c17b006608_z.jpg","width":640,"height":480},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/","name":"Who lost the South China Sea? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2018-06-14T20:00:52+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-03T06:07:06+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/who-lost-the-south-china-sea\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Who lost the South China Sea?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124","name":"Brahma Chellaney","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Brahma Chellaney"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39950"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/482"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39950"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39953,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39950\/revisions\/39953"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}