{"id":39961,"date":"2018-06-13T13:30:08","date_gmt":"2018-06-13T03:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=39961"},"modified":"2018-06-13T13:24:19","modified_gmt":"2018-06-13T03:24:19","slug":"singapore-summit-more-than-meets-the-eye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/singapore-summit-more-than-meets-the-eye\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore summit: more than meets the eye?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

There\u2019s a line<\/a> in Taoist philosophy that says, \u2018The Tao that can be spoken is not the eternal Tao.\u2019 It\u2019s a cautionary principle that should underpin one\u2019s reading of the final joint declaration<\/a> from the Trump\u2013Kim summit in Singapore.<\/p>\n

The declaration itself is short on detail, and commits its signatories only to four grand objectives: a new bilateral relationship between the\u00a0US and North Korea, a peace regime on the Korean peninsula, complete denuclearisation of the peninsula, and recovery and repatriation of the remains of prisoners of war or soldiers missing in action from the Korean War. When it was released, the Twitterverse exploded with indignation and outrage, generally along the lines of, \u2018Is that all?\u2019<\/p>\n

But I\u2019d put a more positive spin on the summit\u2014largely on the basis of what the joint declaration doesn\u2019t<\/em> say. A close reading of the tea leaves suggests there\u2019s more happening here than meets the public eye. Indeed, the fine detail of denuclearisation is being kept well off camera.<\/p>\n

The two sides seem to have agreed not to talk about that issue much\u2014not least, I suspect, because Washington believes that doing so would only make it harder for Kim Jong\u2011un to make the concessions necessary to make denuclearisation a practical policy option.<\/p>\n

Readers should go back and look again at the \u2018Libyan model<\/a>\u2019 of nuclear disarmament. True, public discussion of this model became entangled with a separate event, namely Muammar al\u2011Qaddafi\u2019s unseemly end. But take a closer look at the events of\u00a02003 and\u00a02004. Libya cooperated closely in dismantling its own WMD programs. There was a high level of transparency in that process, but only for a small group of people\u2014it wasn\u2019t a public process. US and British foreign and intelligence officials and International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors had the best view of what was happening on the ground. John Bolton was, at that time, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.<\/p>\n

Keeping the denuclearisation issue off camera in relation to North Korea clearly involves some verbal gymnastics in US\u00a0descriptions of what took place at the summit. In his hour-long press conference<\/a> with media, President Donald Trump spoke of a sudden, belated, incidental agreement between the two leaders to dismantle a ballistic-missile engine test site in North Korea, suggesting that this concession had come too late to be included in the text of the joint declaration. (\u2018We agreed to that after the agreement was signed.\u2019)<\/p>\n

That\u2019s possible, I suppose. But it would seem to fit more logically in a discussion over whether the moratorium on ballistic missile testing also included static missile engine tests\u2014of which the North Koreans do quite a few. And that would imply both sides have begun to burrow down on matters of detail.<\/p>\n

Trump uses the idea of the belated agreement on engine testing to suggest to journalists that not everything that was agreed appears in the declaration. \u2018[W]hat we signed today was a lot of things included (sic). And then you have things that weren\u2019t included that we got after the deal was signed.\u2019<\/p>\n

At later point in his press conference, Trump is asked again about the lack of detail on verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation. He replies that \u2018it wasn\u2019t a big point today because, really, this had already been taken care of, more than any other thing \u2026 This has been taken care of before we got here.\u2019 So some points never made the declaration because they came too early.<\/p>\n

Asked about whether American or international inspectors will actually be present on the ground to verify North Korean denuclearisation, Trump states that \u2018combinations of both\u2019 will be involved. \u2018And we have talked about it, yes.\u2019<\/p>\n

In an interview with George Stephanopoulos<\/a> on ABC News, the president stated that \u2018we have the framework of getting ready to denuclearise North Korea\u2019. Here, he talks about denuclearisation in more sweeping terms, and the message is definitely about a process that is imminent and not distant.<\/p>\n

So, how should we judge the Singapore summit? Well, it was definitely a public relations win for both leaders\u2014which probably plays out to Kim\u2019s relative advantage. Moreover, Trump\u2019s announcement about the cessation of US\u2013South Korean military exercises clearly caught the South Koreans flat-footed, so an awkward moment for Washington there. But on the biggest point of all, denuclearisation, the honest answer is that it\u2019s too soon to tell. More seems to be happening than meets the eye.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a line in Taoist philosophy that says, \u2018The Tao that can be spoken is not the eternal Tao.\u2019 It\u2019s a cautionary principle that should underpin one\u2019s reading of the final joint declaration from the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":39962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[86],"class_list":["post-39961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-north-korea","dinkus-trump-kim-summit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSingapore summit: more than meets the eye? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/singapore-summit-more-than-meets-the-eye\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Singapore summit: more than meets the eye? 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