{"id":40010,"date":"2018-06-15T14:30:10","date_gmt":"2018-06-15T04:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=40010"},"modified":"2018-06-15T14:24:22","modified_gmt":"2018-06-15T04:24:22","slug":"aspi-suggests-89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspi-suggests-89\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPI suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

The world<\/strong><\/p>\n

This week, the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong\u2011un overwhelmingly captured the world\u2019s attention. The two leaders signed a joint statement<\/a>, President Trump followed with a lengthy press conference<\/a> and The White House produced a bizarre Hollywood-style video<\/a> for Kim. The summit prompted an avalanche of analysis.<\/p>\n

So where to start? There are plenty of negative views on the summit. See these pieces by top Asia hands in the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, Michael Green<\/a> and Danny Russel<\/a>. For a more positive view, see ASPI\u2019s own Rod Lyon<\/a>. The Atlantic\u2019s<\/em> Peter Beinart argues that \u2018Trump has the chance to be like Ronald Reagan<\/a>\u2019, and Bret Stephens explains why that\u2019s unlikely<\/a>. The Wall Street Journal<\/em> shows how Pyongyang reported<\/a> and spun<\/a> the summit. While war is much less likely in the short term, it\u2019s still possible in the long term. With that in mind, IISS has a new report on\u00a0the conventional military balance<\/a>\u00a0on the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n

The friendly feel to the Trump\u2013Kim summit contrasted sharply to the atmosphere earlier at the G7\u00a0summit in Canada. Before departing Washington, Trump called for Russia\u2019s readmission<\/a>, which the other members swiftly rejected. In Canada<\/a>, Trump told G7\u00a0leaders<\/a> that Crimea is Russian, arrived late<\/a> to a women\u2019s empowerment meeting, threatened to escalate a trade war with friends and allies, launched an extraordinary Twitter attack on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and refused to endorse the summit communique.<\/p>\n

Notably, a promise to promote the \u2018rules-based international order\u2019 was included in the communique<\/a> despite American objections. Strobe Talbott reviews Russia\u2019s involvement in the G8<\/a> in Politico<\/em>. Susan Glaser<\/a> and Thomas Wright<\/a> take a closer look at Trump\u2019s rift with European allies. Perhaps the acrimony can be explained by the Trump Doctrine<\/a>?<\/p>\n

In Singapore\u2019s shadow, the US quietly unveiled a new US$255\u00a0million facility<\/a> for a \u2018de facto embassy\u2019 in Taiwan. Taiwan\u2019s president, Tsai Ing\u2011wen, and her predecessor were both in attendance with the US envoy Marie Royce, the assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs. The New York Times<\/em> noted that the \u2018lack of cabinet-level visitors from Washington displayed the Trump administration\u2019s unwillingness to upset China\u2019.<\/p>\n

One wonders why the US bothered trying to minimise the fallout given that on Friday, President Trump approved tariffs on about US$50\u00a0billion of Chinese goods, according to the <\/a>Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/a>. Beijing has said that it intends to assess tariffs on a corresponding amount of US\u00a0products\u2014no doubt targeting goods produced in Republican states.<\/p>\n

Shares in the Chinese telecoms equipment maker ZTE plunged this week after reports that US\u00a0Senators are pushing to keep sanctions on the company despite President Trump\u2019s decision to reconsider penalties against the company as a \u2018favour\u2019 to Chinese President Xi\u00a0Jinping. Writing in the New York Times<\/em>, Li Yuan argues that the near-collapse of ZTE may be China’s \u2018Sputnik moment\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In Hong Kong, activist Edward Leung was sentenced to six years in jail<\/a> for \u2018rioting\u2019 during the Mong Kok protests of February\u00a02016. In early\u00a02017, the same court sparked outrage<\/a> after it sentenced police who had beaten up a protester to only two years in jail. One in three pro-democracy legislators<\/a> has been prosecuted by the government since the Umbrella Movement of\u00a02014. Ironically, Leung was sentenced using colonial laws that Britain tried to repeal and Beijing fought to keep. Writing in the <\/a>Financial Times<\/em><\/a>, former British diplomat and former leader of the Liberal Democrats, Paddy Ashdown, argues that Britain has an obligation to denounce the abuse of colonial laws in Hong Kong and other former British colonies.<\/p>\n

In the Middle East, the war in Yemen<\/a> enters a decisive phase making an already dire humanitarian situation worse. Charlie Winter and Haid Haid have a new report on jihadist insurgent communications<\/a> in Syria. On the topic of jihadists, New America<\/em> takes a look<\/a> at the demographics of homegrown terrorism in America.<\/p>\n

Matteo Salvini, Italy\u2019s new anti-migrant deputy prime minister and interior minister, refused permission<\/a> for a rescue vessel carrying more than 600\u00a0people to dock in Italian ports earlier this week, prompting an international outcry. French President Emmanuel Macron said Rome had acted with \u2018cynicism and irresponsibility\u2019 in turning away the rescue ship, setting off a bitter diplomatic spat between the two countries. Italy\u2019s other deputy prime minister, Luigi Di Maio, said he\u2019s still waiting for an apology<\/a> from Macron.<\/p>\n

The two Italian deputy prime ministers hail from two populist parties, Lega and the Five Star Movement. Writing in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> earlier this month, Erik Jones argued that the legislative agendas of the coalition partners will inevitably compete for the same limited fiscal resources, but that ultimately the Italian government will last only so long as Matteo Salvini of Lega has his way.<\/p>\n

Here in Australia, we\u2019re well-versed on the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s (CCP) influence operations on our own soil, but what about across the ditch? The Croaking Cassandra<\/em> blog, written by former NZ\u00a0Treasury official Michael Reddell, has been running a series of posts recently about Chinese interference in the land of the long white cloud. The latest update<\/a> provides a neat dot-point summary of all the instances of CCP infiltration of New Zealand society.<\/p>\n

Tech geek<\/strong><\/p>\n

ASPI\u2019s annual conference this week is on \u2018Building Australia\u2019s strategy for space<\/a>\u2019, so a space theme seems appropriate for this week\u2019s \u2018tech geek\u2019.<\/p>\n

Space\u00a02.0 is a key theme of the conference, and a key objective of Space\u00a02.0 is innovation and cost reduction in space launch, with reusable rockets and airborne launch currently dominating efforts. But the most ambitious approach is a space elevator<\/a>. Literally an elevator from earth into space, it would be a revolutionary transformation for humanity. A new article examines the feasibility of such a mega-project<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a debate occurring in the\u00a0US over the future of the International Space Station<\/a> (ISS) which will be defunded by the US\u00a0government by the mid-2020s. Meanwhile, China<\/a> is set to launch its first true space station<\/a> around\u00a02020. If an agreement can\u2019t be reached to transfer the ISS to commercial operators, then it\u2019s likely it would be de-orbited, leaving China with the only space station in orbit<\/a>.<\/p>\n

One of the reasons that the US is defunding the ISS is to shift attention to the return to the moon<\/a>, starting with a lunar orbit space station known as the \u2018Deep Space Gateway\u2019. Here\u2019s an interesting article on the debate about how that should take place<\/a> in the 2020s.<\/p>\n

Most interesting, though, is how quickly the commercial space sector will outpace NASA\u2019s efforts in this regard, with Jeff Bezos\u2019s<\/a> Blue Moon vehicle to support a \u2018moon village<\/a>\u2019 and SpaceX<\/a> determined to establish a foothold on the lunar surface.<\/p>\n

Podcasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

For more on the Trump\u2013Kim summit, listen to Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein<\/a> at Arms Control Wonk<\/em> [50:47] and Mira Rapp-Hooper and Stephen Haggard<\/a> at The Lawfare Podcast<\/em> [42:07].<\/p>\n

ANU\u2019s National Security College has a new fortnightly podcast series looking at Australian and regional security challenges. The first episode<\/a> features Rory Medcalf discussing the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 concept. [29:57]<\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sydney, 19\u00a0June, 6\u20137.30\u00a0pm, The University of Sydney, Sydney Ideas and China Studies Centre, \u2018Peace on the peninsula? The origins and implications of North Korea\u2019s diplomatic offensive\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canberra, 19 June, 6\u20137\u00a0pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs (ACT Branch), \u2018Reflections upon the Trump\u2013Kim summit\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Melbourne, 21 June, 6\u20137.30\u00a0pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs (Victoria Branch), \u2018ASEAN\u2019s regional role\u2019, presented by HE Ms Jane Duke, Australian Ambassador to ASEAN. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sydney, 26 June, 6\u20138\u00a0pm, United States Studies Centre, \u2018Populism, authoritarianism and gender in Trump\u2019s America\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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