{"id":40348,"date":"2018-07-03T06:00:42","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T20:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=40348"},"modified":"2018-07-03T10:51:51","modified_gmt":"2018-07-03T00:51:51","slug":"a-post-alliance-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-post-alliance-us\/","title":{"rendered":"A post-alliance US?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s disdain for alliance commitments suggests that we might be heading into a new era in geopolitics\u2014an era characterised by a post-alliance US. While US allies will be hoping fervently that that isn\u2019t the case, it probably makes sense to think through some of the ramifications of that scenario.<\/p>\n

True, the Trump administration continues to emit a range of conflicting signals about alliances. Within the pages of the National Security Strategy (PDF<\/a>) and the unclassified summary of the National Defense Strategy (PDF<\/a>)\u2014the formal documents underpinning declaratory strategy\u2014allies are seen as positive contributors to US security. Yes, the documents continue to expound Trump\u2019s point about the need for allies to carry more of the weight. See, for example, page 28 of the NSS: \u2018We need our allies \u2026 to modernize, acquire necessary capabilities, improve readiness, expand the size of their forces, and affirm the political will to win.\u2019<\/p>\n

But the dominant picture is that the current US alliances are an enabler, an asymmetrical strength in the emerging environment of competitive great-power relationships. Broadly speaking, the US has allies while Russia and China don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the president seems not to share that view. Reports of his conversation<\/a> with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan L\u00f6fven in March suggest that the president was envious of Sweden\u2019s relationship with NATO\u2014as a partner of the alliance rather than as a member of it. If true, that approach reflects something more than a concern about equitable burden-sharing: it suggests, in particular, a wish to avoid the automaticity of commitment that goes with NATO membership and Article 5 commitments.<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t, of course, necessarily mean an isolationist America. Even a post-alliance America would still have interests abroad. And the current US and Australian celebration of their \u2018100 years of mateship<\/a>\u2019, dating from their cooperation at the Battle of Hamel in World War I, is clearly freighted with a range of messages that Canberra hopes to send to Washington: in particular, that America had an important global role, and Australian\u2013US defence cooperation a history, before the post\u2013World War II alliances came along.<\/p>\n

But a more voluntarist approach to US strategic engagement would certainly mean a radical rethink by US allies of their own strategic futures. After all, the current alliance system is predicated on US engagement. In his post<\/a> last week, Dominique Moisi drew the important distinction between US disengagement from NATO and one of the other members doing the same: \u2018A sheep gone astray is one thing; if the shepherd leaves, the entire herd is at risk.\u2019<\/p>\n

At the risk of losing some of the elegant simplicity of Moisi\u2019s metaphor, let\u2019s concede that the shepherd has more than one flock. Some Europeans worry about the relative importance of NATO as Asia grows steadily in wealth, power and strategic importance. So it\u2019s possible that the shepherd is merely rationalising priorities here.<\/p>\n

But is that the real basis of Trump\u2019s disdain for NATO? He honestly doesn\u2019t seem to be more attracted to the US\u2019s Asian allies than its European ones. Indeed, if the NATO summit in Brussels on 11\u201312 July goes badly, it will send a fresh wave of concern through Japan, South Korea and Australia about their own alliances, not a sense of relief that the increasing strategic importance of Asia helps make them safe. That\u2019s because the US is even more central to its Asian alliances than it is to NATO. The San Francisco system is not called the \u2018hub-and-spokes\u2019 model for nothing.<\/p>\n

Moreover, US allies in Asia live in closer proximity to radical and adverse power shifts than their European counterparts\u2014and their doing so has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind. Yes, President Vladimir Putin is pushing the risk envelope in Europe, especially in regard to the Baltics, Ukraine and the Black Sea<\/a>. And those are genuine issues for the NATO summit to address. But today\u2019s Russia is a weaker power than yesterday\u2019s Soviet Union. By comparison, today\u2019s China is a\u2014much\u2014stronger power than it was in Cold War days.<\/p>\n

So if the US does seem to be headed into a post-alliance age, it would be reasonable to expect a more substantial reorientation of US allies\u2019 defence policies to unpack in Asia, not in Europe. Each of the Asian allies is more singularly dependent upon the US than any of its 28 NATO allies. If Japan and South Korea both feel a necessity to contemplate a Plan B for their strategic futures, we should brace for radical options in Northeast Asia. Moreover, we\u2019d need to do a root-and-branch rethink of our own strategic future here in Australia.<\/p>\n

Having America as merely an intermittent partner and not a committed ally would\u2014and should\u2014force a serious reconsideration of our options.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump\u2019s disdain for alliance commitments suggests that we might be heading into a new era in geopolitics\u2014an era characterised by a post-alliance US. 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