{"id":41064,"date":"2018-07-31T14:30:36","date_gmt":"2018-07-31T04:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=41064"},"modified":"2018-07-31T14:27:48","modified_gmt":"2018-07-31T04:27:48","slug":"trumps-grand-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-grand-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s grand strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

US President Donald Trump\u2019s inability to think strategically is undermining longstanding relationships, upending the global order, and accelerating the decline of his country\u2019s global influence\u2014or so the increasingly popular wisdom goes. But this assessment is not nearly as obvious as its proponents\u2014especially political adversaries and critics in the mainstream US media\u2014claim.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s relative decline<\/a> was a hot topic long before Trump took office. The process began when the United States, emboldened by its emergence from the Cold War as the world\u2019s sole superpower, started to overextend<\/a> itself significantly by enlarging its military footprint and ramping up its global economic and security commitments.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s \u2018imperial overreach\u2019 was first identified<\/a> during President Ronald Reagan\u2019s administration, which oversaw a frenetic expansion of military spending. It reached crisis levels with the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq under President George W. Bush\u2014a watershed moment that caused irreparable damage to America\u2019s international standing.<\/p>\n

On President Barack Obama\u2019s watch, China rapidly expanded its global influence, including by forcibly changing the status quo in the South China Sea (without incurring any international costs). By that point, it was unmistakable: the era of US hegemony was over.<\/p>\n

It is not just that Trump cannot be blamed for America\u2019s relative decline; he may actually be set to arrest it. As unpredictable as Trump can be, several of his key foreign policy moves suggest that his administration is pursuing a grand strategy aimed at reviving America\u2019s global power.<\/p>\n

For starters, the Trump administration seems eager to roll back America\u2019s imperial overreach, including by avoiding intervention in faraway wars and demanding that allies pay their fair share for defence. The fact is that many NATO members do not fulfill their spending commitments, effectively leaving American taxpayers to subsidise their security.<\/p>\n

These are not new ideas. Before Trump even decided to run for office, pundits were arguing that the US needed to pursue a policy of retrenchment<\/a>, drastically reducing its international commitments and transferring more of its defence burden onto its allies. But it was not until Trump, who views running a country much like running a business, that the US had a leader who was willing to pursue that path, even if it undermined the values that have long underpinned US foreign policy.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s focus on containing China\u2014which FBI Director Christopher Wray recently labelled<\/a> a far bigger challenge than Russia, even in the area of espionage\u2014fits nicely into this strategy. Successive US presidents, from Richard Nixon to Obama, aided<\/a> China\u2019s economic rise. Trump, however, regards China not as America\u2019s economic partner, but as \u2018a foe economically\u2019 and even, as the official mouthpiece China Daily<\/em> recently put it<\/a>, America\u2019s \u2018main strategic rival\u2019.<\/p>\n

In general, Trump\u2019s tariffs aim to put the US back in control of its economic relationships by constraining its ballooning trade deficits, with both friends and foes, and bringing economic activity (and the accompanying jobs) back home. But it is no secret that, above all, Trump\u2019s tariffs target China\u2014a country that has long defied international trade rules and engaged in predatory practices.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Trump is also working to ensure that China does not catch up with the US technologically. In particular, his administration seeks to thwart China\u2019s \u2018Made in China 2025<\/a>\u2019 program, the blueprint unveiled by the Chinese government in 2015 for securing global dominance over 10 strategic high-tech industries, from robotics to alternative-energy vehicles.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s diplomatic activities seem intended to advance this larger strategic vision of reversing America\u2019s relative decline. He has tried to sweet-talk autocratic leaders, from North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong-un to Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin, into making concessions\u2014an approach that has garnered its share of criticism. But Trump\u2019s compliments have not translated into kowtowing.<\/p>\n

For example, despite all the controversy over Russia\u2019s interference in the 2016 presidential election, the fact is that, since Trump took office, the US has expelled Russian diplomats, closed a Russian consulate, and imposed three rounds of sanctions on the country. His administration is now threatening to apply extraterritorial sanctions<\/a> to stop other countries from making \u2018significant\u2019 defence deals with Russia, a leading arms exporter.<\/p>\n

Trump has not flattered any foreign leader more than Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he called \u2018terrific<\/a>\u2019<\/u> and \u2018a great gentleman<\/a>\u2019<\/u>. Yet, again, when Xi refused to yield to Trump\u2019s demands, the US president did not hesitate to hit back \u2018using Chinese tactics<\/a>\u2019, including suddenly changing negotiating positions and unpredictably escalating trade tensions.<\/p>\n

Even Trump\u2019s direct approach<\/a> with North Korea undermines China\u2019s position by bypassing it. Trump is right that transforming the US \u2013 North Korea relationship matters more than securing complete denuclearisation. If he can co-opt North Korea, China\u2019s only formal military ally, northeast Asian geopolitics will be reshaped and China\u2019s lonely rise will be more apparent than ever.<\/p>\n

There are plenty of problems with Trump\u2019s methods. His brassy, theatrical and unpredictable negotiating style, together with his China-like disregard for international norms, are destabilising international relations. Domestic troubles like political polarisation and legislative gridlock<\/a>\u2014both of which Trump has actively exacerbated\u2014also weaken America\u2019s hand internationally.<\/p>\n

But there is no denying that Trump\u2019s muscular \u2018America First\u2019 approach\u2014which includes one of the most significant military buildups<\/a> since World War II\u2014reflects a strategic vision that is focused squarely on ensuring that the US remains more powerful than any rival in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

Perhaps more important, the transactional approach to international relations on which Trump\u2019s strategy relies is likely to persist long after he leaves office. Friends and foes alike must get used to a more self-seeking America doing everything in its power, no matter the cost, to forestall its precipitous decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump\u2019s inability to think strategically is undermining longstanding relationships, upending the global order, and accelerating the decline of his country\u2019s global influence\u2014or so the increasingly popular wisdom goes. But this assessment is …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":41066,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1428,2070],"class_list":["post-41064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s grand strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-grand-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s grand strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US President Donald Trump\u2019s inability to think strategically is undermining longstanding relationships, upending the global order, and accelerating the decline of his country\u2019s global influence\u2014or so the increasingly popular wisdom goes. 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