{"id":41303,"date":"2018-08-09T14:30:14","date_gmt":"2018-08-09T04:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=41303"},"modified":"2018-08-09T13:58:29","modified_gmt":"2018-08-09T03:58:29","slug":"play-stop-rewind-zimbabwes-elections-negative-feedback-loop-or-stuttering-new-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/play-stop-rewind-zimbabwes-elections-negative-feedback-loop-or-stuttering-new-start\/","title":{"rendered":"Play, stop, rewind: Zimbabwe\u2019s elections\u2014negative feedback loop or stuttering new start?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Another Zimbabwean election, another Zanu-PF victory, another cry of \u2018foul\u2019. And another pile of bodies. The more things change, the more they stay the same in the southern African nation. Or so it seems.<\/p>\n

As the dust and gun smoke settle, two very different narratives are emerging, as a number of commentators have noted<\/a>. There\u2019s nothing new in that, to those familiar with Zimbabwean electoral ritual. For the opposition MDC-Alliance, bitter anger<\/a> has replaced naive euphoria<\/a>, its expectations smashed by this latest drubbing at the hands of the ruling party, Zanu-PF. The only explanation, it contends, is massive rigging by an ossified regime that hasn\u2019t really changed, bar the absence of Robert Mugabe. The brutal reaction of security forces to street protests over the vote, during which (officially) six civilians were killed and 14 injured<\/a>, is grist to this well-worn storyline.<\/p>\n

Naturally, Zanu-PF\u2019s version of events may be found in its traditional place at the opposite pole: this was a clean break from the Mugabe era, brought about by a clean vote\u2014one underwritten by electoral reforms (such as biometric voter registration) and strenuous efforts to create a peaceful campaign environment. It was tarnished only by the MDC hooligans who took to the streets and the \u2018tragedy\u2019<\/a> that resulted.<\/p>\n

Leaving aside the customary international supporters of Zanu-PF and\/or of \u2018non-interference\u2019\u2014the African countries, Russia and China, among others (which have already ticked off<\/a> on the vote)\u2014the MDC\u2019s perspective would ordinarily carry the day in the West. Zimbabwe would drop off the radar again, cast for another electoral cycle into the darkness reserved for other pariah states such as North Korea. And there are some international opinion makers who have been quick to damn the regime<\/a> in time-honoured fashion.<\/p>\n

But things will not be so simple this time around. With the election over, there will now be a real and fierce battle over international legitimacy, rather than usual, pro forma appeals to existing allies. It\u2019s a contest that will impact the country\u2019s short- and medium-term future\u2014and maybe its longer-term destiny, as well. Hopelessly powerless, the MDC\u2019s one remaining card is the sympathy it has in the West, and it has a reasonable prospect of wrecking the reputation of president-elect Emmerson Mnangagwa, just as it worked to undermine Mugabe\u2019s. Mnangagwa, for his part, is determined to secure the Western funds\u2014both private and institutional\u2014that he needs if he is to have any chance of rebuilding Zimbabwe\u2019s economy and lifting Zanu-PF out of perpetual crisis mode.<\/p>\n

It is this extended hand that has made the post-mortem so much more complex for the West this time around. Mnangagwa has continued to say all the right things. He dispensed with Mugabe\u2019s black-and-white anti-imperialist stance after his old boss was overthrown in November 2017\u2014and he has held the line since the election, playing the statesman<\/a> despite the shrill response of the opposition and widespread condemnation of the security forces\u2019 disproportionate crackdown.<\/p>\n

Ironically, it is Mugabe who taught Mnangagwa how to beguile the West. It\u2019s easy to forget that the cantankerous 2000s, where there existed no middle ground between the petulant despot and his Western critics, were unlike the early years of Zimbabwe\u2019s independence. For most of the 1980s and \u201990s, Mugabe handled the West adroitly\u2014and Mnangagwa, who sat at his side during those years, appears to remember the lessons well. (Indeed, it is in this arena that authoritarian regimes often lick their more democratic competitors; practitioners of politics\u2019 dark arts have frequently been in positions of power for decades\u2014and draw on enormous reservoirs of issue-specific knowledge\u2014while their Western counterparts were appointed five minutes beforehand and often don\u2019t even know enough to know that they don\u2019t know enough.)<\/p>\n

The lessons Mnangagwa imbibed were, roughly: keep the doors open, come what may; and touch not their sacred cows. Adhere to these principles, and one can get away with pretty much anything\u2014and be paid to boot.<\/p>\n

This strategy works because it intersects with the paradox of altruism and pragmatism that marks the Western foreign-policy culture. A consistent (if ostensible) openness creates a sense of sincerity and integrity, and, in turn, breeds doubt about the negative signals that might otherwise be interpreted more unequivocally. Yes, people were killed in the streets\u2014but was it perhaps the hardliners in the military who issued the order? Hasn\u2019t Mnangagwa ordered an independent investigation<\/a>? And didn\u2019t opposition leaders contribute by inciting their supporters?<\/p>\n

Likewise, there were anomalies in the management of the elections, but where is the concrete evidence of systematic rigging? Is it reasonable to expect the first post-Mugabe elections to meet first-world standards? And isn\u2019t it true that the MDC has demonstrably engaged in hyperbole on many occasions? As indicated by the European Union\u2019s preliminary report<\/a> on the elections\u2014which contained a bit of everything, from condemnation to praise to cautious neutrality\u2014these are the kind of debates that will now be occurring behind closed doors in the Foreign Office, the State Department and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Where Mnangagwa and co. are definitively caught red-handed\u2014and the occasions will be fewer than the opposition hopes (the evidence is usually buried deep enough to be irrelevant by the time it is unearthed)\u2014Western pragmatism will act as a counter. It is here that some of the sacred cows become a factor. Mnangagwa is a hard man, to be sure; but is he not determined to reform the economy, which will benefit all Zimbabweans\u2014and Western business\u2014after the madness of the Mugabe years? Moreover, the dominance of the security sector is a fact of life, regrettable though it may be\u2014and is there anyone better equipped than Mnangagwa to keep a lid on the wild boys in the military?<\/p>\n

The ineradicable tension between values and realpolitik is the schizophrenic voice in the head of Western foreign-policymakers. It is often hard to discern the truth\u2014and, when it is found, it is equally difficult to draw the lines between what is right and what is expedient. That is all the more the case when dealing with those who understand the nature of this tension and how to manipulate it. In the wake of Zimbabwe\u2019s 2018 elections, Western governments need to look long and hard at the evidence\u2014and think long and hard about what matters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another Zimbabwean election, another Zanu-PF victory, another cry of \u2018foul\u2019. And another pile of bodies. The more things change, the more they stay the same in the southern African nation. Or so it seems. As …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":829,"featured_media":41314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[753,2230,554],"class_list":["post-41303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-election","tag-emmerson-mnangagwa","tag-zimbabwe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPlay, stop, rewind: Zimbabwe\u2019s elections\u2014negative feedback loop or stuttering new start? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/play-stop-rewind-zimbabwes-elections-negative-feedback-loop-or-stuttering-new-start\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Play, stop, rewind: Zimbabwe\u2019s elections\u2014negative feedback loop or stuttering new start? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Another Zimbabwean election, another Zanu-PF victory, another cry of \u2018foul\u2019. 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