{"id":41630,"date":"2018-08-24T11:04:12","date_gmt":"2018-08-24T01:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=41630"},"modified":"2018-10-23T14:15:43","modified_gmt":"2018-10-23T03:15:43","slug":"india-still-wary-of-the-quad-amid-its-own-china-reset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/india-still-wary-of-the-quad-amid-its-own-china-reset\/","title":{"rendered":"India still wary of the Quad amid its own China \u2018reset\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

India has recently been called out for being the weakest link<\/a> in the revitalised Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a framework for cooperation involving three other democracies in the Indo-Pacific\u2014Australia, Japan and the US. One of the reasons that\u2019s been offered for India\u2019s perceived reticence on the Quad is its \u2018reset<\/a>\u2019 of relations with China after the tense military standoff<\/a> between the two nations last year at the India\u2013Bhutan\u2013China border junction in Doklam.<\/p>\n

Given this, it\u2019s worth asking whether the Wuhan summit<\/a> between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, which formalised the \u2018reset\u2019<\/a> in April, was really a game-changer for India in the Indo-Pacific. The answer is \u2018no\u2019. The conciliatory change in New Delhi\u2019s attitude to Beijing that started in February<\/a> is nothing but tactical manoeuvring. India wants to maintain its strategic autonomy<\/a> by hedging its bets on multiple partners.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to remember that the Modi government is counting down to the 2019 general elections<\/a> and foreign policy is traditionally a non-issue at the ballots. New Delhi\u2019s offer of an olive branch to Beijing in the form of the reset is essentially an attempt to buy temporary peace to avoid another Doklam-like confrontation. That theory is further supported by India\u2019s denial<\/a>\u00a0of US claims that China has continued its activity on the Doklam plateau. The Modi government has also failed to put the proceedings of Wuhan on record, as is common practice.<\/p>\n

China and India must overcome some other hurdles for any reset to be worth its name. The two nuclear-armed states share a long-running boundary dispute<\/a>. Boundary transgressions by PLA troops are a routine feature, with regular skirmishes<\/a> along the disputed \u2018Line of Actual Control\u2019. China\u2019s all-weather friendship<\/a> with Pakistan is another source of friction with India. New Delhi remains concerned about Beijing\u2019s increasing encroachment<\/a> on its strategic space, especially in the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean region, and is hiking foreign aid in response. China continues to make it difficult for India to join the Nuclear Suppliers\u2019 Group<\/a> and gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council<\/a>.<\/p>\n

India has also deepened bilateral and trilateral defence and economic cooperation<\/a> with the Quad nations in the past few months. The announcement of Australia\u2019s exclusion from the Malabar naval exercises on the eve of the Wuhan summit appeared to be meant to please Beijing<\/a>. But New Delhi has been consistent in its position on Australia\u2019s participation<\/a> in Malabar, denying it participation or observer status for many years, in keeping with its traditional emphasis on preserving its strategic autonomy. Maintaining the status quo on Malabar, given the attempt at a reset with China, seems logical from India\u2019s point of view, even though some may have found it disappointing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, India\u2019s bilateral naval drills with Australia, AUSINDEX<\/a>, and its participation in Pitch Black 2018<\/a>, the multi-nation air-defence exercise held in Darwin, are indications of New Delhi\u2019s openness to deepening military ties with Canberra. India has continued its robust engagement<\/a> in \u20182+2\u2019 defence and foreign ministerial dialogues and trilateral security meetings<\/a> with Japan and the US. India is reportedly close to signing<\/a> a military communications agreement with the US, after years of negotiations, which would increase interoperability between the armed forces of the two countries. And New Delhi and Tokyo have agreed to conduct their first joint army exercises on counterterrorism<\/a> later this year and are on the verge of signing a major logistics exchange and support agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

India has entered into bilateral and trilateral infrastructure development partnerships with the US and Japan in the form of the Asia\u2013Africa Growth Corridor<\/a> and the trilateral working group on infrastructure<\/a>. It has also been steadfast in its opposition<\/a> to China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative since last year, citing Beijing\u2019s violation of territorial sovereignty norms and creation of unsustainable debt traps. Even though there were rumours of New Delhi softening its stance<\/a> on the BRI earlier this year, in the context of the China reset, the Indian government has since reaffirmed its objection<\/a> to the initiative. However, India\u2019s decision not to get involved in the US\u2013Japan\u2013Australia infrastructure trilateral may be attributed<\/a> to its failure to unlink the concept of the Quad from its anti-China connotation.<\/p>\n

The first meeting of the rejuvenated Quad took place in Manila in November 2017<\/a>, shortly after India emerged from the Doklam crisis. Since then, New Delhi has embarked on its China \u2018reset\u2019 to avoid another confrontation and returned to the holy grail<\/a> of India\u2019s foreign policy, maintaining strategic autonomy. India has also sought to engage with Russia<\/a>, France<\/a> and ASEAN<\/a>, both to further its interests in the region and avoid confrontation in the run-up to an election.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not clear yet whether India will end up embracing or rejecting the Quad. New Delhi seems unwilling so far to sign up to an arrangement with a larger agenda than a consultative forum. India\u2019s emphasis on multi-alignment, outlined in Modi\u2019s speech at the Shangri-la Dialogue<\/a>, means that it will shun any initiative<\/a> that has a pronounced anti-China rhetoric and tenor. At the same time, New Delhi will never cosy up to China because of the unresolved structural issues.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean that India has rejected the concept of the Indo-Pacific. India\u2019s behaviour is consistent with its inclusive vision of the Indo-Pacific, in which it exercises strategic autonomy by emphasising a \u2018non-bloc\u2019 vision of security cooperation. The Quad\u2019s future and India\u2019s participation in it will depend on building an agenda that is compatible with New Delhi\u2019s multipolar and non-bloc approach to the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

India has recently been called out for being the weakest link in the revitalised Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a framework for cooperation involving three other democracies in the Indo-Pacific\u2014Australia, Japan and the US. 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