{"id":42032,"date":"2018-09-14T06:00:14","date_gmt":"2018-09-13T20:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42032"},"modified":"2018-09-13T20:00:16","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T10:00:16","slug":"the-cost-of-defending-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-cost-of-defending-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"The cost of defending Taiwan"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Taiwan is a country under siege as it faces the prospect of eventual reunification with China, on China\u2019s terms, and potentially as soon as 2021<\/a>\u2014the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.<\/p>\n

From Xi Jinping\u2019s perspective, the successful reunification of China and Taiwan, through force if necessary, would firmly entrench his position as China\u2019s paramount leader, with prestige far exceeding Mao Zedong\u2019s or Deng Xiaoping\u2019s. Achieving that goal quickly is seen by Xi as an essential prerequisite for realising the \u2018China Dream<\/a>\u2019 of national rejuvenation. As \u2018a rich country with a strong army\u2019, China would be, in every sense, a new middle kingdom\u2014a global superpower for the 21st century\u2014that ultimately eclipses the United States.<\/p>\n

Several factors have led to an escalation of coercive pressure on Taiwan in recent years. Xi is increasingly impatient<\/a> with Taiwan\u2019s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has refused to accept the 1992 consensus<\/a> and the concept of \u2018one China\u2019. Tsai\u2019s position is understandable: Taiwan is a strong and vibrant democracy and a majority<\/a> of its population identify themselves not as Chinese, but Taiwanese. Pro-independence forces are gathering support, and Tsai is conscious of this growing sentiment in her Democratic Progressive Party base. She can\u2019t ignore the will of the majority of Taiwan\u2019s people.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s improving<\/a> relationship with the Trump administration is also a concern for Beijing. Washington has agreed to new arms sales<\/a> totalling US$1.42 billion\u2014a move that has angered<\/a> Beijing. The US 2018 National Defense Authorization Act permits US Navy warships to visit Taiwan, and the Taiwan Travel Act<\/a> signed into law in March allows<\/a> two-way exchanges between US and Taiwanese officials.<\/p>\n

The US has opened a de facto embassy<\/a> in Taipei, the American Institute of Taiwan. And Republican and Democrat senators have introduced the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI<\/a>) Act, which would penalise states that take adverse action against Taiwan under pressure from China.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, China continues to steadily reduce Taiwan\u2019s international diplomatic reach by persuading the dwindling number of countries that have previously recognised Taipei to recognise Beijing. That strategy weakens Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic efforts to gain international support. Yet losing the odd Pacific Island supporter here or Central American state there will mean little if the Trump administration moves to deepen its ties with Taipei as part of a broader strategy of counterbalancing a rising China.<\/p>\n

So rather than biding his time and waiting to see Taiwan incorporated into China by 2049\u2014the centenary of the founding of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2014might Xi seek to move much sooner<\/a>? Adam Ni argues that there are various trends pushing cross-strait relations towards a more confrontational path. He notes that Taiwan\u2019s younger population identify less with the mainland, in spite of efforts by Beijing to use economic inducements to gain their support.<\/p>\n

Ni also argues that there\u2019s a perception in Beijing that in spite of closer US\u2013Taiwan ties under President Donald Trump, the US lacks the resolve to go to war against China over Taiwan. Now is Beijing\u2019s opportunity to achieve China\u2013Taiwan reunification, through the use of force if necessary. \u2018The trajectory is quite scary at the moment. There\u2019s a perception in China that it\u2019s their time in the sun. This hubris is really dangerous. They think the US wouldn\u2019t dare intervene because of the huge cost of doing so, but it would be disastrous for everyone if China is underestimating US resolve\u2019, Ni says.<\/p>\n

Thus the significance of PLA Navy and Air Force operations<\/a> around Taiwan is very real. These exercises are designed to wear down Taiwanese operational readiness and coerce the Tsai government into accepting a more conciliatory cross-strait policy. They also allow the PLA to establish control of the battlespace, gather intelligence<\/a> on Taiwanese military responses, and practise for a cross-strait clash.<\/p>\n

A recent report<\/a> highlighted these operations as the centrepiece of any PLA move that could culminate in a full-scale invasion<\/a>, unless Beijing could coerce Taiwan\u2019s leadership into submission through a combination of an air and naval blockade and air and missile strikes.<\/p>\n

An amphibious invasion would be incredibly costly for the PLA, given the nature of Taiwan\u2019s defence capabilities. Taiwan\u2019s mountainous and forested geography would make it ideal for the Republic of China Army to undertake a prolonged insurgency against any occupying PLA forces. So taking Taiwan militarily certainly won\u2019t be a low-cost or quick operation. The Taiwanese approach also seems set on taking<\/a> the fight to the enemy, through developing indigenous capabilities to strike back in the event of Chinese attacks. Still, Taiwan remains deeply dependent on US intervention.<\/p>\n

If China successfully secured Taiwan, what then? Control of Taiwan means China effectively can use the island to project military power along the first island chain, in a manner that reinforces its control of the South China Sea, challenges Japan in the Senkakus and Ryukyus, and places greater pressure on the US position in Guam.<\/p>\n

Control of Taiwan is a strategic lynchpin for Chinese power in the Western Pacific. It would strengthen China\u2019s ability to exploit anti-access and area denial (A2AD) to ensure sea control and control of the air within near and middle seas, to deter or defeat any US intervention into the Western Pacific. That opens up all sorts of possibilities for a restored middle kingdom ready to reassert its domination of Asia.<\/p>\n

Beijing may be tempted to call Washington\u2019s bluff on the assumption that it won\u2019t respond. China may think that such an outcome\u2014achieving forced reunification of Taiwan and China, strengthening China\u2019s dominance of East Asia, and ending US strategic primacy in Asia\u2014may be worth the risk of a war across the straits. Conversely, failure to retake Taiwan would spell the end of China\u2019s ambition to dominate Asia, and would certainly finish Xi as leader for life. With Beijing\u2019s pressure steadily building, keeping an eye on events across the Taiwan Strait is more important than ever.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgement: The author thanks Adam Ni for his valuable comments on a draft of this article.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Taiwan is a country under siege as it faces the prospect of eventual reunification with China, on China\u2019s terms, and potentially as soon as 2021\u2014the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. From …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":42040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,2291,392],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe cost of defending Taiwan | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-cost-of-defending-taiwan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The cost of defending Taiwan | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Taiwan is a country under siege as it faces the prospect of eventual reunification with China, on China\u2019s terms, and potentially as soon as 2021\u2014the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. 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