{"id":42070,"date":"2018-09-17T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-09-16T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42070"},"modified":"2018-09-16T17:44:19","modified_gmt":"2018-09-16T07:44:19","slug":"pondering-trump-alarm-versus-pragmatism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/pondering-trump-alarm-versus-pragmatism\/","title":{"rendered":"Pondering Trump: alarm versus pragmatism"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The Australian government\u2019s approach to the US under President Donald Trump is deeply pragmatic: hold tight to what we\u2019ve got, get what we can, and don\u2019t anger Trump.<\/p>\n

Loudly love the alliance. And if you can\u2019t say anything nice about Trump, say nothing. So far, it\u2019s working.<\/p>\n

The Australia\u2013US relationship since Trump\u2019s inauguration has been defined by what the president has NOT done to Australia. He hasn\u2019t questioned the alliance. He hasn\u2019t hit Australia with trade tirades and tariffs. He hasn\u2019t broken the refugee deal he so denounced when first taking office. And he hasn\u2019t even sent an ambassador to Australia.<\/p>\n

The pragmatic view is that Australia has stayed out of trouble with Trump and has done well with a transactional president. The pessimistic argument is that Trump is tearing up the international system and Australia must rethink and reposition.<\/p>\n

In public, the Liberals proclaim the pragmatic view. And, of course, being in government enforces that discipline. Being out of office, Labor grandees are freer to sound the alarm. But even the Libs are musing about the alliance effects if Trump brings the legions home.<\/p>\n

Purest pragmatism is dispensed by Alexander Downer, our longest serving foreign minister (1996\u20132007), who has just completed five years as high commissioner to the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

Downer says Trump has been better for Australia<\/a> than Barack Obama. Obama \u2018made America look weak\u2019, Downer writes, and \u2018under Obama, America pulled back from the world\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump may be bombastic, crude and crass, Downer observes, but so what? The Downer judgement:<\/p>\n

In Asia, Trump has built a half-decent personal relationship with Xi Jinping. That has helped with his\u00a0attempts to get North Korea to scrap<\/a>\u00a0its program to build nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that could hit American cities. The talks have happened; let\u2019s see if that strategy has worked. It\u2019s too early to say. Trump certainly hasn\u2019t persuaded the Chinese to desist from militarising reefs in the South China Sea. But his aggressive commitment to American military power\u2014including a huge increase in defence spending\u2014has probably made the Chinese realise it would be dangerous to go much further in the South China Sea. All that\u2019s good for us.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Downer says Australia\u2019s experience of Trump has been mostly positive:<\/p>\n

So the Trump presidency is going quite well for Australia. Not perfectly, mind you. Pity he pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. That was a bad mistake. But pulling out of the Paris Agreement will have a marginal effect. And he did exempt us from the steel and aluminium tariffs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans (1988\u20131996) says<\/a> the US under Trump is a rogue superpower, \u2018tearing up the order it did so much to create\u2019. Evans says the \u2018irremediable damage\u2019 being done by Trump means Australia must think hard about future responses. He offers four policy shifts:<\/p>\n