{"id":4221,"date":"2013-02-28T05:00:20","date_gmt":"2013-02-27T19:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=4221"},"modified":"2013-03-01T07:44:58","modified_gmt":"2013-02-28T21:44:58","slug":"how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/","title":{"rendered":"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4229\" title=\"A demonstrator bares a shirt declaring the Senkaku\/Diaoyu islands as Japanese territory. Nationalist group 'Ganbare Nippon' has seized on the issue as an example that Japan needs to enact a tougher foreign policy position towards China and its recent 'aggression'.\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg\" alt=\"A demonstrator bares a shirt declaring the Senkaku\/Diaoyu islands as Japanese territory. Nationalist group 'Ganbare Nippon' has seized on the issue as an example that Japan needs to enact a tougher foreign policy position towards China and its recent 'aggression'.\" width=\"800\" height=\"598\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c-205x153.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>The\u00a0Australian\u00a0debate on\u00a0the Senkaku\/Diaoyu dispute\u00a0is interesting for what it reveals, and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-dangerous-brinkmanship-in-maritime-northeast-asia\/\" target=\"_blank\">what<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-dangerous-brinkmanship-in-maritime-northeast-asia\/\" target=\"_blank\">it<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.lowyinterpreter.org\/post\/2013\/02\/07\/China-at-sea-wake-up-australia.aspx\">omits<\/a>.\u00a0So far, very few are talking about\u00a0Australia\u2019s\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0strategy\u2014and that\u2019s a big problem. While the best strategy\u00a0will\u00a0probably involve\u00a0elements of\u00a0military\u00a0balancing,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0worth examining Australia\u2019s potential\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0role in\u00a0the\u00a0peaceful de-escalation of Japan\u2013China\u00a0tensions.<\/p>\n<p>Australian foreign policy, under Bob Carr, has been\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/national-affairs\/foreign-affairs\/ties-with-china-japan-can-co-exist-carr\/story-fn59nm2j-1226553115969\" target=\"_blank\">prudently non-committal<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0this\u00a0dispute.\u00a0That\u2019s a smart approach,\u00a0but\u00a0prudence\u00a0and\u00a0even-handedness\u00a0don\u2019t equate a diplomatic strategy.\u00a0Australia\u00a0has some\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0leverage\u00a0in\u00a0the current crisis, in part thanks to its status as\u00a0a\u00a0new member of the UN Security Council and\u00a0future\u00a0G20\u00a0host.\u00a0And we have good reason to take a keen interest.<\/p>\n<p>It matters very little to the direct Australian national interest who owns a pile of rocks in the East China Sea. What matters is that Japan and China don\u2019t go to war over them and risk Asia\u2019s (and hence our) security and prosperity in the process.\u00a0We can\u2019t afford to be so complacent on this\u00a0crisis as to assume that\u00a0major\u00a0war, involving Australian lives, could not result from\u00a0it.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Under a reasonable reading of ANZUS and the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Australia has no alliance obligations to involve itself,\u00a0should war break out and the US come to the aid of Japan. The United States, however, might have some expectations about Australia\u2019s involvement under a strict reading of both texts, and this is something for us to consider very seriously.<\/p>\n<p>For the above reason, it\u2019s important to\u00a0emphasise\u00a0that Australia cannot aim\u00a0to directly\u00a0mediate\u00a0this dispute. In short, it\u2019s not seen as a neutral player by both parties. And we are not, as far as China is concerned.\u00a0According\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com\/posts\/2012\/11\/19\/double_talk_in_australia\">to<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2011-11-17\/china-indonesia-wary-of-us-troops-in-darwin\/3675866\" target=\"_blank\">numerous<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/national\/analysts-say-china-stung-by-defence-pact-20111117-1nl8p.html\" target=\"_blank\">sources<\/a>, since the deal with the US on\u00a0basing\u00a0Marines in Darwin, China basically perceives Australia as part of a strategy to contain its rise.<\/p>\n<p>The following points suggest key elements of the\u00a0Australian\u00a0contribution to\u00a0a broader diplomatic game plan to prevent Japan\u2013China war.\u00a0(See my\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2013\/02\/22\/6-ways-to-prevent-a-conflict-between-tokyo-and-beijing\/\" target=\"_blank\">six-point\u00a0plan to prevent\u00a0Senkaku\u00a0war<\/a>).\u00a0Australia should pursue a two-pronged\u00a0strategy\u2014with\u00a0two\u00a0short-term and\u00a0two\u00a0long-term objectives.<\/p>\n<p>Our first short-term goal in this dispute should\u00a0focus on directly restraining both parties. In practice, Australia can begin by\u00a0proposing\u00a0an\u00a0immediate\u00a0naval and aerial standoff, in which both Japan and China ceased incursions around and over the contested islands for one month of high-level talks. Submarines\u00a0should fall under\u00a0this\u00a0understanding, as their presence could destabilise\u00a0peace\u00a0talks.<\/p>\n<p>Secondly,\u00a0by virtue of our seat on the UNSC,\u00a0Australia\u00a0might be able to increase\u00a0pressure\u00a0on\u00a0both parties to accept Ban-ki\u00a0Moon\u2019s recommendations.\u00a0To this end, we\u00a0could\u00a0support the Secretary General in\u00a0referring\u00a0this dispute to the Security Council,\u00a0under Article 99 of the UN Charter. It\u2019s obvious that China would try to block this from\u00a0reaching\u00a0the agenda, and this\u00a0could spark a damaging public debate at the UN. This is a fairly blunt instrument, so Australia should only seek to use it if Ban-ki\u00a0Moon\u00a0requested\u00a0the extra pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly, the above two are only short-term measures to encourage de-escalation. Even if successful, they will only buy time for calmer and more in-depth talks to seek to resolve the core issues.<\/p>\n<p>As a first long-term objective, Australia should encourage Japan and China to conclude\u00a0military-to-military and civilian confidence-building measures (CBMs) covering their interactions at sea. Mark Valencia offers\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com\/2013\/02\/20\/how-to-prevent-a-china-japan-clash\/\" target=\"_blank\">two basic formats<\/a>\u2014either a US\u2013Soviet style\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.state.gov\/t\/isn\/4791.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Incidents at Sea Agreement (INCSEA)<\/a>\u00a0along the lines of what Sam Bateman has\u00a0previously\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/managing-incidents-at-sea\/\" target=\"_blank\">discussed<\/a>\u00a0on this blog,\u00a0or a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.asean.org\/asean\/external-relations\/china\/item\/declaration-on-the-conduct-of-parties-in-the-south-china-sea\" target=\"_blank\">Declaration on Conduct<\/a>, similar to that concluded by ASEAN and China in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n<p>I favour\u00a0the first agreement. The ASEAN\u2013China declaration\u00a0was more aspirational,\u00a0but\u00a0its failure was evident\u00a0in the past few years\u00a0of skirmishes in the South China Sea.\u00a0An INCSEA agreement\u2019s\u00a0concrete measures of mutual restraint\u2014such as \u2018not simulating attacks at, launching objects toward, or illuminating the bridges of the other party\u2019s ships\u2019\u2014are more relevant\u00a0to this crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Australia can push both parties to conclude such an agreement in the next few months. To avoid the trappings and slow bureaucratic channels of officialdom, a major Australian think tank could\u00a0perhaps present\u00a0a draft INCSEA negotiating text to Japanese and Chinese negotiators in a\u00a0Track\u00a0II\u00a0proposal.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, Australia\u2019s\u00a0second long-term objective should be that Japan and China conclude the present bout of tensions with an\u00a0in principle\u00a0agreement to negotiate the future status of the islands. In many ways, this would\u00a0vindicate\u00a0China\u2019s position\u00a0that Japan\u00a0recognise\u00a0the\u00a0disputed nature\u00a0of the territories. However, Japan need not\u00a0verbally\u00a0recognise\u00a0the\u00a0territorial dispute\u2014its very engagement in such talks would tacitly make\u00a0this\u00a0brave concession. Whatever their content, future talks should not ignore Taiwan, which is a legitimate\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mofa.gov.tw\/Content\/Uninet\/Script\/ckfinder\/core\/connector\/aspx\/images\/image003%281%29.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">and constructive<\/a>\u00a0claimant to the Senkaku\/Diaoyu islands.<\/p>\n<p><em>Daryl Morini is a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland and a\u00a0<em>Pacific Forum CSIS WSD-Handa\u00a0Non-Resident Fellow. Image courtesy of Flickr user <a href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/aljazeeraenglish\/8037591053\/\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera English<\/a>.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The\u00a0Australian\u00a0debate on\u00a0the Senkaku\/Diaoyu dispute\u00a0is interesting for what it reveals, and\u00a0what\u00a0it\u00a0omits.\u00a0So far, very few are talking about\u00a0Australia\u2019s\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0strategy\u2014and that\u2019s a big problem. While the best strategy\u00a0will\u00a0probably involve\u00a0elements of\u00a0military\u00a0balancing,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0worth examining Australia\u2019s potential\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0role in\u00a0the\u00a0peaceful de-escalation of Japan\u2013China\u00a0tensions. Australian foreign &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":96,"featured_media":4229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,52,294,285,135,329,149],"class_list":["post-4221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-foreign-policy","tag-japan","tag-territorial-disputes","tag-united-nations-security-council"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war  | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war  | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The\u00a0Australian\u00a0debate on\u00a0the Senkaku\/Diaoyu dispute\u00a0is interesting for what it reveals, and\u00a0what\u00a0it\u00a0omits.\u00a0So far, very few are talking about\u00a0Australia\u2019s\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0strategy\u2014and that\u2019s a big problem. 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Australian foreign ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-02-27T19:00:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2013-02-28T21:44:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"598\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daryl Morini\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daryl Morini\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI&#039;s analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/8037591053_ea74ebf709_c.jpg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":598,\"caption\":\"A demonstrator bares a shirt declaring the Senkaku\/Diaoyu islands as Japanese territory. Nationalist group 'Ganbare Nippon' has seized on the issue as an example that Japan needs to enact a tougher foreign policy position towards China and its recent 'aggression'.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/\",\"name\":\"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-27T19:00:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-02-28T21:44:58+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/408708f6e7f21ea37ff12e64f0e3fac4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/408708f6e7f21ea37ff12e64f0e3fac4\",\"name\":\"Daryl Morini\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29b3ca5247b1f81251d9ab9d5f1c2b38?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29b3ca5247b1f81251d9ab9d5f1c2b38?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Daryl Morini\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/daryl-morini\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war  | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-we-can-prevent-japan-china-war\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How we can prevent Japan\u2013China war  | The Strategist","og_description":"The\u00a0Australian\u00a0debate on\u00a0the Senkaku\/Diaoyu dispute\u00a0is interesting for what it reveals, and\u00a0what\u00a0it\u00a0omits.\u00a0So far, very few are talking about\u00a0Australia\u2019s\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0strategy\u2014and that\u2019s a big problem. While the best strategy\u00a0will\u00a0probably involve\u00a0elements of\u00a0military\u00a0balancing,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0worth examining Australia\u2019s potential\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0role in\u00a0the\u00a0peaceful de-escalation of Japan\u2013China\u00a0tensions. 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