{"id":42429,"date":"2018-10-03T14:52:24","date_gmt":"2018-10-03T04:52:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42429"},"modified":"2018-10-03T14:52:24","modified_gmt":"2018-10-03T04:52:24","slug":"south-africa-in-crisis-part-3-failure-will-impact-africa-and-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/south-africa-in-crisis-part-3-failure-will-impact-africa-and-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa in crisis (part 3): failure will impact Africa and the world"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Whether South Africa is teetering or slowly crumbling is moot. But one thing\u2019s clear: the country faces a raft of intersecting crises that it is ill-equipped to solve. And the world\u2019s inattention doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s not going to matter. A collapse of Africa\u2019s most advanced nation, be it rapid or piecemeal, would have a massive regional impact\u2014with significant knock-on effects beyond the continent.<\/p>\n

South Africa\u2019s future matters most, of course, to its 58 million people\u2014a number that is projected to rise to 65 million by 2030<\/a>. A failure of what is currently the world\u2019s 25th most populous nation would be disastrous, ipso facto<\/em>. Life may be far from rosy for the majority of South Africans, but it would get much worse if living standards fell back towards the norms that prevail in other sub-Saharan countries.<\/p>\n

According to the most recent World Bank data<\/a>, 57% of South Africans and 74% of those in neighbouring Zimbabwe live on less than US$5.50 a day. In Africa\u2019s three biggest countries by population, the situation is dire: it\u2019s 85% in Ethiopia, 98% in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and 92% in Nigeria. That\u2019s not somewhere you want to be.<\/p>\n

Africa\u2019s economy is not as integrated as it ought to be, yet South Africa is an enormously important economic player, particularly for the countries of Southern Africa. Landlocked Lesotho and Swaziland, along with the former South African dependency of Namibia, are part of the Common Monetary Area, which ties local currencies to the rand. If South Africa goes under, those countries will sink with it.<\/p>\n

Trade statistics underline South Africa\u2019s significance to the region. Exports produced by its relatively sophisticated manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors are especially critical. Namibia draws 57% of its imports<\/a> from there; Botswana, 65%<\/a>; and Mozambique, 30%<\/a>. Exports from this trio to South Africa account for between 14% and 16% of their total export trade.<\/p>\n

Zimbabwe\u2019s dependence on South Africa is more acute again. The creation of Rhodesia\u2014of which Zimbabwe is the post-independence successor state\u2014was an integral part of capitalism\u2019s expansion in South Africa during the late 1800s, so bilateral economic links have long been intimate. Yet the relationship was previously a much more dynamic, two-way phenomenon.<\/p>\n

Since 2000, when Robert Mugabe\u2019s \u2018fast-track land reform program\u2019 gutted the country\u2019s agro-business economy, South Africa has been less an economic partner than an emergency life support. Nearly 80% of Zimbabwe\u2019s exports<\/a>\u2014far more than any other Southern African country\u2019s\u2014cross the Limpopo to South Africa, and 41% of its imports travel the other way.<\/p>\n

That last figure excludes an entire universe of dependence that revolves around the Zimbabwean diaspora in South Africa. Pushed by economic collapse and political persecution, untold numbers<\/a> of Zimbabweans have illegally migrated south in search of work and shelter. So vast has this population movement been that the demographics of some parts of Zimbabwe, like rural Matabeleland, are markedly different from what they were in the 1980s and \u201990s. Some of these areas have been largely stripped of their economically active youth, who now keep those at home alive through their remittances of cash and kind.<\/p>\n

Official figures put the value of remittances at an average of US$1 billion a year<\/a> over the past three years\u2014and that\u2019s likely to be a significant underestimate given that much is sent through unofficial channels. Those in South Africa are estimated to contribute more than a third<\/a> of the total figure, aside from drawing directly on the South African economy to support their own needs. When the two are combined\u2014both direct dependence and remittances\u2014it\u2019s clear that a large proportion of Zimbabweans are reliant on South Africa\u2019s economy. Even small shocks, like depreciations of the rand\u2019s purchasing power, cause serious grief for them. A repeat of Zimbabwe\u2019s economic disintegration in South Africa would be a disaster of monumental proportions.<\/p>\n

Further afield on the continent, geography dissipates South Africa\u2019s economic weight, but it doesn\u2019t become trivial. South Africa is the second largest exporter<\/a> to sub-Saharan Africa next to China. Together with Nigeria, South Africa generates almost half of Africa\u2019s GDP<\/a>. An economic dive in South Africa would lop chunks of varying sizes off the GDP growth of many countries outside Southern Africa\u2014something the continent can ill afford given that growth is already insufficient to reduce poverty<\/a> in any substantial way.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because Africa is in the midst of the biggest population spike in human history. The UN\u2019s \u2018medium scenario\u2019 projection<\/a> is that Africa\u2019s population will climb from today\u2019s 1.3 billion to 1.7 billion by 2030, double to 2.5 billion by 2050 and soar to 4 billion by 2100. Africa will contribute more than 58% of world population growth between now and 2050, and over 89% by 2100. The end-of-century figures may differ significantly by the time we get there\u2014depending on factors such as economic progress\u2014but demographers point out that inertia means the projections for the next 10 to 30 years are almost certain to be relatively accurate<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That means the consequences are just around the corner. For everyone. If Africa doesn\u2019t get it right, it will inevitably export its problems across the globe in the form of mass migration and terrorism, among others. It will also become a centre of increasing conflict between global powers. Hunkering down behind walls and border forces isn\u2019t going to cut it, in and of itself.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time we started caring more about what happens in Africa. If we don\u2019t do it now, we\u2019ll pay later, as sure as one African birth succeeds another.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Whether South Africa is teetering or slowly crumbling is moot. But one thing\u2019s clear: the country faces a raft of intersecting crises that it is ill-equipped to solve. And the world\u2019s inattention doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":829,"featured_media":42432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177,785,2146,365,554],"class_list":["post-42429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-africa","tag-population","tag-south-africa","tag-trade","tag-zimbabwe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Africa in crisis (part 3): failure will impact Africa and the world | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/south-africa-in-crisis-part-3-failure-will-impact-africa-and-the-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Africa in crisis (part 3): failure will impact Africa and the world | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Whether South Africa is teetering or slowly crumbling is moot. 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