{"id":42654,"date":"2018-10-12T11:51:06","date_gmt":"2018-10-12T00:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42654"},"modified":"2018-10-12T11:51:06","modified_gmt":"2018-10-12T00:51:06","slug":"the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

There\u2019s no doubt US President Donald Trump\u2019s renewed sanctions will hurt Iran, but it is not a given that they will halt its nuclear and missile programs, or its other activities in the region. The challenges the president faces, from the Europeans especially, will test the effectiveness of US leadership on the issue.<\/p>\n

Major players in the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) have used the latest UN General Assembly meeting, or acted simultaneously with it, to strengthen their positions for and against the agreement.<\/p>\n

Supporting the deal were a joint ministerial statement<\/a> on 24 September from the JCPOA participants (Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, Iran and the EU) and an address from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani<\/a> to the UN on 25 September.<\/p>\n

Trump attacked the JCPOA in his UN address<\/a>, also on 25 September, and in his opening remarks on 26 September as Security Council chair. The release of two US State Department documents, the Annual country reports on terrorism 2017<\/a><\/em> and Outlaw regime: a chronicle of Iran\u2019s destructive activities<\/a><\/em>, was timed to provide more detailed support for Trump\u2019s claims of Iranian \u2018malign activities\u2019, regionally and globally.<\/p>\n

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complemented Trump with his own address<\/a> to the UN on 27 September.<\/p>\n

Predictably, the joint statement strongly reasserted participants\u2019 commitment to the JCPOA, and to the EU\u2019s \u2018blocking statute\u2019, updated on 7 August, that legally protects all EU businesses that defy Trump\u2019s reimposed sanctions and continue to trade with Iran. Also announced was the creation of a \u2018special purpose vehicle\u2019 to provide businesses in the EU and elsewhere with \u2018secure payment channels\u2019 that would bypass US financial systems. However, the statement noted that operational aspects of the vehicle were yet to be finalised.<\/p>\n

In a clear challenge to Trump\u2019s actions to severely restrict international trade with Iran, the joint statement referred to the importance of \u2018normalising trade and economic relations\u2019 and securing \u2018the continuation of Iran\u2019s oil and gas condensate, petroleum products and petrochemicals\u2019. It also emphasised that these objectives were consistent with UN Security Council resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA in January 2016.<\/p>\n

In his address to the UN, delivered with notable restraint, Rouhani criticised the US withdrawal from the JCPOA\u2014but not Trump by name\u2014and emphasised the importance of adhering to international agreements and obligations. He also warned of the dangers of undermining international institutions and referred to the anomaly of the US using sanctions to pressure other countries to \u2018violate\u2019 international law, in the shape of the UN-endorsed JCPOA, and threatening to punish them if they didn\u2019t. Rouhani defended Iran\u2019s presence in Syria as being at the invitation of Bashar al-Assad and emphasised Iran\u2019s role in combatting terrorism. He identified the Israel\u2013Palestine issue as \u2018the most pressing crisis in the Middle East\u2019.<\/p>\n

In a bid to counter Trump\u2019s reimposed sanctions and withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran had lodged a claim with the International Court of Justice that the sanctions violated the US\u2013Iran 1955 Treaty of Amity. That treaty goes back to the days of a compliant shah and ignores the decades of hostility since. On 3 October, the court ruled that the US should lift sanctions linked to humanitarian goods and civil aviation safety, but added that it had no mandate to rule on the broader dispute (it also has no power to enforce its rulings). The US responded by terminating the treaty.<\/p>\n

In his UN address, Trump described Iran as the \u2018world\u2019s leading sponsor of terrorism\u2019 and said the ruling regime was a \u2018corrupt dictatorship\u2019 that sows \u2018chaos, death and destruction \u2026 across the Middle East and beyond\u2019. He said Iran must never gain access to nuclear weapons, develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering them or acquire the funds to pursue its \u2018agenda of aggression and expansion\u2019. Trump also re-emphasised the importance of the reimposed sanctions and of other countries\u2019 compliance to prevent Iran pursuing its agenda.<\/p>\n

Trump did not call for regime change, although it was implicit. He did say that after the next round of sanctions hit on 4 November, \u2018more will follow\u2019. It\u2019s thought any new measures will include punitive targeting of countries and businesses that continue to trade with Iran.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu said Iran still aspired to develop nuclear weapons. He said there was a \u2018a secret atomic warehouse\u2019 in Tehran containing unspecified nuclear equipment which Iran should have disclosed and destroyed as part of the JCPOA. Netanyahu also challenged the International Atomic Energy Agency\u2019s ability to detect and demand access to suspected covert nuclear facilities. Noting the irony of this, Iran\u2019s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, tweeted<\/a> the following day that it was \u2018time for Israel to fess up and open its illegal nuclear weapons program to international inspectors\u2019.<\/p>\n

None of the stakeholders, then or since, has indicated any willingness to compromise, although sources claim there\u2019s been intense back-channel discussion seeking a solution. Rouhani rejected a US proposal to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the UN assembly, saying that any such talks had to be held within the JCPOA framework. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Several developments over the next few weeks will shape the way ahead. On trade, a key factor will be the impact of the next round of sanctions on Iran\u2019s economy. They primarily target Iran\u2019s oil and gas exports, the source of up to 70% of its foreign currency income. It\u2019s not clear how many countries will cease importing Iranian petroleum products. China is expected to continue this trade with Iran, as will India, at least in part.<\/p>\n

Also critical will be how many businesses cease direct and indirect trade with Iran for fear of punitive secondary sanctions, especially the loss of access to US markets, despite the EU\u2019s safety net. \u00a0Major international businesses have already withdrawn from Iran, or intend to do so, including Total, Maersk, Peugeot, Siemens and Boeing. But one US concern is the extent to which China, Russia and possibly India could exploit the opportunity to fill all or part of the vacuum.<\/p>\n

The outcome of the 6 November US midterm elections could also affect developments. If the Republicans poll well, Trump will read that as support for his Iranian (and other) policies. If they poll badly, that lack of support might allow for some flexibility in the US position.<\/p>\n

Right now, Trump holds the stronger hand, but his ability to continue to do so is facing a serious challenge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s no doubt US President Donald Trump\u2019s renewed sanctions will hurt Iran, but it is not a given that they will halt its nuclear and missile programs, or its other activities in the region. The …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":42656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2225,1428,247,1883,31],"class_list":["post-42654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-denuclearisation","tag-donald-trump","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s no doubt US President Donald Trump\u2019s renewed sanctions will hurt Iran, but it is not a given that they will halt its nuclear and missile programs, or its other activities in the region. The ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"750\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg\",\"width\":750,\"height\":500,\"caption\":\"DSG meeting AM Plenary General DebateHis His Excellency Hassan Rouhani, President, Islamic Republic of Iran\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/\",\"name\":\"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\",\"name\":\"Ian Dudgeon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ian Dudgeon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist","og_description":"There\u2019s no doubt US President Donald Trump\u2019s renewed sanctions will hurt Iran, but it is not a given that they will halt its nuclear and missile programs, or its other activities in the region. The ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":750,"height":500,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Ian Dudgeon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ian Dudgeon","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/777258.jpg","width":750,"height":500,"caption":"DSG meeting AM Plenary General DebateHis His Excellency Hassan Rouhani, President, Islamic Republic of Iran"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/","name":"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00","dateModified":"2018-10-12T00:51:06+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-iran-nuclear-deal-challenging-trumps-new-sanctions\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Iran nuclear deal: challenging Trump\u2019s new sanctions"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182","name":"Ian Dudgeon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ian Dudgeon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42654"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/205"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42654"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42654\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42660,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42654\/revisions\/42660"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}