{"id":42755,"date":"2018-10-16T14:33:27","date_gmt":"2018-10-16T03:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42755"},"modified":"2018-10-30T10:45:48","modified_gmt":"2018-10-29T23:45:48","slug":"america-and-saudi-arabia-in-the-wake-of-the-khashoggi-affair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-and-saudi-arabia-in-the-wake-of-the-khashoggi-affair\/","title":{"rendered":"America and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Khashoggi affair"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Saudi Arabia\u2019s relations with the United States seem to be heading towards a crisis in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi\u2019s alleged murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. President Donald Trump has been reluctant to lay blame on the Saudis, especially on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), following Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance after entering the consulate.<\/p>\n

However, Turkish authorities have let it be known, although indirectly through leaks to the media, that they have enough evidence to conclude that Khashoggi was tortured, killed and dismembered when he visited the Saudi consulate on 2 October. According to the\u00a0Washington Post<\/a><\/em>, \u2018The Turkish government has told US officials that it has audio and video recordings that prove Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.\u2019<\/p>\n

Furthermore, it has come to light that US intelligence\u00a0intercepted conversations\u00a0<\/a>among Saudi officials regarding plans to abduct Khashoggi from his home in Virginia and forcibly take him to Saudi Arabia. As it turned out, Khashoggi seems to have walked into the lion\u2019s den of his own accord.<\/p>\n

In the wake of mounting evidence of Saudi complicity in this sordid affair, there has been growing clamour in the US Congress, especially among leading Republicans such as Senators Bob Corker and Lindsey Graham, demanding a full investigation into Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance. Corker, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and one of a handful of senators briefed on US intelligence on the case, told CNN that he believed Khashoggi was murdered and that the \u2018intel points directly<\/a>\u2019 at the Saudi government. \u2018I think they did it and unfortunately I think he is deceased.\u2019<\/p>\n

Senior congressmen from both parties have made clear that if Saudi complicity in the affair is established then the US must impose stringent sanctions on the Saudi regime. So far Trump\u00a0has been lukewarm\u00a0<\/a>to such suggestions, arguing, \u2018I don\u2019t like stopping massive amounts of money that\u2019s being poured into our country\u2014they are spending US$110 billion on military equipment and on things that create jobs for this country.\u2019 However, most probably apprehensive of the fact that the dissonance between his views and those of leading members of Congress belonging to his party may rip apart the Republican Party on this issue, Trump seems to have somewhat modified his stance.<\/p>\n

In an interview with CBS\u2019s prestigious 60 Minutes<\/em> program aired on 14 October, Trump stated that the Saudis could be behind Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance and, if so, the US would\u00a0inflict \u2018severe punishment\u2019<\/a> on them. However, when asked what kind of punishment he may pursue, Trump didn\u2019t commit to sanctions or cutting sales of US military equipment to Saudi Arabia. \u2018I\u2019ll tell you what I don\u2019t want to do\u2019, Trump said. \u2018I don\u2019t want to hurt jobs. I don\u2019t want to lose an order like that. And you know what, there are other ways of punishing.\u2019 But he refused to elaborate on what these other ways might be.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s clear that the Trump administration is caught in a bind on the Khashoggi affair. The reason is simple. Unlike the Obama administration, it has encouraged the Saudi regime\u2019s irresponsible behaviour and whetted its appetite for aggressive conduct. It has turned a blind eye to the havoc wreaked on Yemeni civilians by Saudi and Emirati bombings that have left parts of Yemen totally devastated and eight million Yemenis living on the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n

Washington has ignored the strategically important fact that by destroying the residual infrastructure of the Yemeni state, Saudi policy has cleared the way for the expansion of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula\u2019s influence in large parts of the country that remain ungoverned. It has ignored the violation of human rights of civil-society activists in Saudi Arabia that has become daily fare nowadays. It even overlooked the fact that MbS incarcerated and extorted huge amounts of money from wealthy Saudi businessmen and members of the royal house, some of whom, such as Walid bin Talal, have made large investments in the American economy.<\/p>\n

Above all, by overturning Obama\u2019s cautious opening towards Iran, especially by withdrawing from the nuclear deal that had put a brake on Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions in return for commensurate economic benefits for Tehran, Washington signalled that it now fully subscribed to the Saudi position that the best way to deal with Iran is, to quote the late Saudi King Abdullah\u2019s colourful phrase, to \u2018cut off the head of the snake\u2019. This clearly indicated to Riyadh that it had the full backing of the US in its competition with Iran for influence in the region.<\/p>\n

In fact, US policy seems to have encouraged MbS to adopt an offensive strategy towards Iran, epitomised by\u00a0his declaration\u00a0<\/a>that \u2018We won\u2019t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead, we will work so that the battle is for them in Iran.\u2019 The Saudi and Emirati blockade of fellow Gulf Cooperation Council member Qatar, because it was deemed to be \u2018soft\u2019 on Iran, was a dramatic demonstration of this offensive policy despite the fact that Qatar houses America\u2019s most important airbase in the region.<\/p>\n

The fact that Trump made his first overseas trip after his inauguration to Riyadh underscored the importance that his administration attached to America\u2019s relations with the kingdom. The personal relationship that Trump and Jared Kushner developed with MbS was a part of this policy of putting all of America\u2019s Gulf eggs in the Saudi basket.<\/p>\n

In light of this record, it\u2019s not surprising that MbS and his advisers concluded that they had nothing to fear in terms of Washington\u2019s negative reaction even if they adopted policies, such as the blockade of Qatar, which ran counter to American strategic interests in the Middle East. In this context, they may have come to believe that the murder of a journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, if it did take place as most analysts believe, would have hardly any impact on American\u2013Saudi relations.<\/p>\n

The Saudis were, therefore, surprised at the adverse reaction this incident created in the US and particularly in the Congress, where there seems to be a bipartisan consensus that sanctions must be imposed on Saudi Arabia if it is proved that its regime had a hand in Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance and possible murder. While Trump and senior members of his administration have been very circumspect about linking the Saudi regime to Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance, the president\u2019s use of the term \u2018severe punishment\u2019 in his CBS interview has rattled the Saudis.<\/p>\n

As a consequence, Riyadh has threatened to retaliate against any punitive measures imposed on it. A statement issued by the Saudi Foreign Ministry on 14 October declared<\/a> that \u2018The kingdom emphasizes that it will respond to any measure against it with an even stronger measure \u2026 The kingdom\u2019s economy has an influential and vital role in the global economy.\u2019 While the statement avoided any direct reference to the \u2018oil weapon\u2019, it\u2019s clear that that was the subtext. With oil prices above US$80 per barrel and the US determined to impose severe sanctions on importers of Iranian oil beginning in early November, a Saudi decision to cut oil production even by as little as 10% could send international energy markets into turmoil with oil prices rising well above US$100 immediately.<\/p>\n

This is a threat that the US and other industrialised countries, as well as major oil importers such as China and India, must take seriously because, given MbS\u2019s impetuous nature, such a prospect cannot be dismissed easily. It would have sounded incredible a few days ago that a journalist\u2019s disappearance and possible murder in a Turkish city could end up having a major impact both on US\u2013Saudi relations and on the international economy. Ironically, Iran, Saudi Arabia\u2019s and America\u2019s major nemesis, could turn out to be the primary beneficiary of the Khashoggi affair and the consequent downturn in US\u2013Saudi relations and resultant rise in oil prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Saudi Arabia\u2019s relations with the United States seem to be heading towards a crisis in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi\u2019s alleged murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. President Donald Trump has been reluctant to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":589,"featured_media":42756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,2336,218,1078,747,31],"class_list":["post-42755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-jamal-khashoggi","tag-middle-east","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-turkey","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Khashoggi affair | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-and-saudi-arabia-in-the-wake-of-the-khashoggi-affair\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Khashoggi affair | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Saudi Arabia\u2019s relations with the United States seem to be heading towards a crisis in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi\u2019s alleged murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. 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