{"id":42928,"date":"2018-10-24T06:00:06","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T19:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=42928"},"modified":"2018-10-26T10:29:33","modified_gmt":"2018-10-25T23:29:33","slug":"the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

A long-overdue shift in America\u2019s China policy is underway. After decades of \u2018constructive engagement\u2019\u2014an approach that has facilitated China\u2019s rise, even as the country has violated international rules and norms\u2014the United States is now seeking active and concrete counter-measures. But is it too late to rein in a country that has emerged, with US help, as America\u2019s main geopolitical rival?<\/p>\n

From Richard Nixon to Barack Obama, successive US presidents regarded aiding China\u2019s economic rise as a matter of national interest; indeed, Jimmy Carter once issued a presidential memo declaring as much. Even as China defied world trade rules, forced companies to share their intellectual property and flexed its military muscles, the US held onto the naive hope that, as China became increasingly prosperous, it would naturally pursue economic and even political liberalisation.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s \u2018China fantasy<\/a>\u2019, as James Mann calls it, was exemplified by Bill Clinton\u2019s argument in favour of allowing China\u2019s admission to the World Trade Organization. Citing Woodrow Wilson\u2019s vision of \u2018free markets, free elections, and free peoples\u2019, Clinton declared that China\u2019s WTO entry would herald \u2018a future of greater openness and freedom for the people of China\u2019.<\/p>\n

That is not what happened. Instead, China established itself at the centre of global manufacturing value chains, as countless companies moved their production to the country\u2014including from the US\u2014while keeping its markets, politics and people under tight control. In fact, China\u2019s dictatorship has become even more entrenched in recent years, as the Communist Party of China has used digital technologies to build a surveillance state<\/a>. Meanwhile, the US has run up trillions of dollars in bilateral trade deficits.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, America\u2019s China fantasy endured, leading Obama to look on as the country created and militarised artificial islands in the South China Sea. At the height of the Chinese government\u2019s island-building, Obama argued<\/a> that \u2018we have more to fear from a weakened, threatened China than a successful, rising China\u2019. As a result, China seized de facto control<\/a> of a highly strategic sea corridor through which one-third of global maritime trade passes\u2014all without incurring any international costs.<\/p>\n

Over the last couple of years, however, the China-policy debate in the US has begun to reflect more realism, with a growing number of voices recognising China\u2019s ambition to supplant its American benefactor as the leading global superpower. The US finally called China what it is: a \u2018revisionist power<\/a>\u2019 and \u2018strategic competitor<\/a>\u2019. And, just this month, Vice President Mike Pence bluntly accused<\/a> China of \u2018using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests\u2019 in the US.<\/p>\n

This rhetorical shift is being translated into action. President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war, in particular, has grabbed headlines, though many observers have failed to discern the strategy behind the tariffs.<\/p>\n

Whereas Trump has used tariffs against allies as leverage to secure concessions and clinch new trade deals, US tariffs targeting China\u2014which could endure for years\u2014are intended to bring about more fundamental and far-reaching change. Even the revised deals with US allies are intended partly to isolate China, thereby forcing it to abandon its mercantilist trade practices, such as forced technology transfer.<\/p>\n

But what the Trump administration has initiated goes beyond tariffs; it amounts to a structural change in America\u2019s China policy that promises to reshape global geopolitics and trade. Because this change aligns with an incipient US bipartisan consensus in favour of more assertive action to constrain China, it is likely to outlast Trump\u2019s presidency.<\/p>\n

To be sure, this does not mean that the US is going to adopt an overtly confrontational China policy. Nor does it necessarily mean that, as many speculate<\/a>, a new cold war is in the offing. For example, China still gets a free pass on human rights abuses, from holding up to a million Muslims from Xinjiang province in internment camps<\/a> to effectively kidnapping Interpol President Meng Hongwei. And, despite his assertions that the Obama administration\u2019s response to China\u2019s activities in the South China Sea was \u2018impotent\u2019, Trump has done little to counter Chinese expansionism.<\/p>\n

Instead, the US seems to hope that it can use primarily economic levers to weaken China\u2014a kind of death from a thousand cuts. But will it be enough? Or is the US effectively shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted?<\/p>\n

China is already challenging the US for technological and geopolitical primacy, and flaunting its authoritarian capitalism as an alternative to democracy. Communism couldn\u2019t pose a credible challenge to liberal democracy, but authoritarian capitalism might. In that sense, China\u2019s model represents the first major challenge to liberal democracy since the rise of Nazism.<\/p>\n

Thanks to its great strides in strengthening its technological prowess and geopolitical clout, China is in a strong position to withstand US pressure to change its ways. It will have to sacrifice some economic growth. But for President Xi Jinping, such a sacrifice would be worth it, if it meant protecting not only his own position, but also his \u2018Chinese dream<\/a>\u2019 of global preeminence. Even if US pressure escalates significantly, China will likely adopt a \u2018two steps forward, one step back\u2019 strategy to keep progressing towards its ambitious goals.<\/p>\n

This is not to say that US efforts are for naught. On the contrary, its policy shift amounts to its last chance to stop China before it secures the critical technologies it needs to gain the upper hand geopolitically in Asia and beyond. Even if it is too late to force China to respect international rules and human rights, it is never too soon to end China\u2019s damaging free ride.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A long-overdue shift in America\u2019s China policy is underway. After decades of \u2018constructive engagement\u2019\u2014an approach that has facilitated China\u2019s rise, even as the country has violated international rules and norms\u2014the United States is now seeking …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":42932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,772,2228,31],"class_list":["post-42928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe end of America\u2019s China fantasy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A long-overdue shift in America\u2019s China policy is underway. After decades of \u2018constructive engagement\u2019\u2014an approach that has facilitated China\u2019s rise, even as the country has violated international rules and norms\u2014the United States is now seeking ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-10-23T19:00:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-10-25T23:29:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/2310trumpxi.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"750\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"499\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/2310trumpxi.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/2310trumpxi.jpg\",\"width\":750,\"height\":499},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/\",\"name\":\"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-10-23T19:00:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-25T23:29:33+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\",\"name\":\"Brahma Chellaney\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Brahma Chellaney\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-end-of-americas-china-fantasy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The end of America\u2019s China fantasy | The Strategist","og_description":"A long-overdue shift in America\u2019s China policy is underway. 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