{"id":44175,"date":"2018-12-07T14:56:14","date_gmt":"2018-12-07T03:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=44175"},"modified":"2018-12-13T18:23:34","modified_gmt":"2018-12-13T07:23:34","slug":"my-way-or-the-huawei-us-china-competition-steps-up-a-gear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/my-way-or-the-huawei-us-china-competition-steps-up-a-gear\/","title":{"rendered":"My way or the Huawei: US\u2013China competition steps up a gear\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Flying home on Air Force One last Saturday, President Donald Trump talked to reporters about his successful dinner chat with General Secretary Xi Jinping, declaring<\/a>:<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an incredible deal. It goes down, certainly\u2014if it happens, it goes down as one of the largest deals ever made. It\u2019s a deal between the United States and China made by the President and the President. And it\u2019ll have an incredibly positive impact on farming, meaning agriculture, industrial products, computers\u2014every type of product.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As with much of what Donald Trump says, there\u2019s some truth here and some \u2018not so much\u2019 truth here.<\/p>\n

The Chinese state\u2019s account of the meeting has been brief. State Councillor Wang Yi said<\/a>, \u2018The discussions on economic and trade issues between the two sides were very positive and constructive, and reached a principled consensus.\u2019<\/p>\n

Wang also reportedly said that the consensus Trump and Xi reached included preventing trade frictions from spreading, returning to dialogue to resolve issues, and a joint goal of cooperation to benefit the global economy.<\/p>\n

So, we don\u2019t know much from the dinner meeting itself. But we do know what the Chinese authorities have done in response to the US tariffs since Trump first imposed them in July 2018.<\/p>\n

We also know that different parts of the US government machinery continue to take strong measures that can only be seen as part of a long-term China strategy.<\/p>\n

The arrest of the Huawei founder\u2019s daughter (and Huawei CFO) Meng Wanzhou in Canada for extradition to the US is a strong indicator that US authorities see themselves as engaged in high-technology competition with Beijing. Because of this, when Chinese tech companies \u2018break the rules\u2019, the US is willing to act.<\/p>\n

Beijing seems to also see this arrest as part of what is now an agreed long-term strategic competition, with the usually strident Global Times<\/em> getting it right<\/a>: \u2018For a considerable period of time, negotiating while at \u201cwar\u201d will be the normal state of China\u2013US relations, and we need to get used to this new reality.\u2019<\/p>\n

Less sensational, but on a deeper level, the latest report<\/a> of the US Trade Representative, released on 20\u00a0November 2018, is an example of this. It\u2019s not happy reading for those wanting an early and enduring end to US\u2013China structural economic and trade differences. But it does a great job of analysing and describing Chinese state and corporate measures and actions since the US tariffs began.<\/p>\n

It shows that Beijing\u2019s response to the tariffs has been to double down on the policies and practices at the core of the dispute with the US. And Beijing has also used its iron control of Chinese media to obscure their continuing commitment to the \u2018Made in China 2025<\/a>\u2019 plan that underpins these key policies and practices. A leaked memo<\/a> from China\u2019s Internet Propaganda Ministry is typically direct and threatening, telling Chinese media outlets \u2018To re-emphasise: do not make further use of \u201cMade in China<\/a>\u00a02025\u201d, or there will be consequences.\u2019<\/p>\n

What doubling down have we seen from China on its pursuit of strategic and economic dominance in high-tech sectors?<\/p>\n

China updated its set of \u2018strategic emerging industries\u2019, issuing a new draft for comment in September 2018. This keeps the \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 focus on creating Chinese technological dominance in new-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, biotechnology, new energy vehicles, new energy, and data.<\/p>\n

It also looks like Chinese actors have increased the tempo and scale<\/a> of cyber-enabled theft against US firms in the cloud computing, internet of things, artificial intelligence, biomedicines, civilian space, alternative energy, robotics, rail, agricultural machinery, and high-end medical devices sectors.<\/p>\n

Last month, cybersecurity firm Carbon Black reported<\/a> a sharp rise in the third quarter of 2018 \u2018in attacks against manufacturing companies\u2014a type of attack that has been frequently tied to Chinese economic espionage\u2019. Carbon Black\u2019s chief cybersecurity officer, Tom Kellerman, said there has been a \u2018resurgence of Chinese attacks. And I think that\u2019s in direct line with the increasing tension with the South China Sea coupled with the trade war. Essentially, the Chinese have taken the gloves off.\u2019<\/p>\n

China\u2019s unfair technology transfer regime for US and other foreign companies operating in China persists. The US Trade Representative\u2019s report tells us that \u2018companies and other trading partners have continued to report on and express concern regarding China\u2019s technology transfer regime. China has not effectively resolved the systemic or specific problems\u2019.<\/p>\n

The US\u2013China Business Council\u2019s members support this judgement. In its 2018 member survey<\/a>, the council reports that 88% of companies are concerned about China\u2019s preferential policies for domestic companies, and American companies are less optimistic about China\u2019s policy direction than in earlier surveys.<\/p>\n

And the US\u2013China Business Council isn\u2019t alone. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China says<\/a> it \u2018shares many of the US\u2019 concerns about China, including a general lack of market access\u2014particularly in high-tech sectors\u2014a business environment that favours domestic firms [and] the continued existence of technology transfers as a pre-condition for market access\u2019.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s much trumpeted \u2018opening up\u2019 as championed by Xi at the recent Shanghai Import Expo<\/a> turns out to be limited and incremental changes to foreign investment restrictions. This approach is confined to sectors where China wants to attract more foreign investment and technology transfer, or where Chinese state policies have already created overwhelmingly favourable<\/a> conditions for Chinese firms\u2014like railway lines and electricity grid construction and management\u2014so opening to foreign competition is likely to be meaningless.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s plenty more in the US Trade Representative\u2019s report. But one other crucial area shows both Beijing\u2019s continued drive to get hold of high technology to gain strategic and economic dominance, combined with behaviour that is designed to obscure this effort.<\/p>\n

This is in the scale and focus of Chinese outbound investment. Unsurprisingly, in light of the tariff dispute and overall tension, Chinese investment into the US has dropped markedly<\/a> over the last year. In the first half of 2018, completed acquisitions and greenfield investments by Chinese companies were at their lowest rates for seven years, and since then, \u2018the pace of newly announced transactions remains similarly depressed\u2019.<\/p>\n

The surprise, though, is that a particular type of Chinese foreign investment into the US has not just continued, but increased quite dramatically. Instead of falling along with general Chinese investment into the US, Chinese venture capital investment into US technology centres, including Silicon Valley, has actually intensified<\/a> in recent months. This shows that the Chinese state is intent on continuing to secure cutting-edge technologies and intellectual property from the US to implement its \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 plan.<\/p>\n

What do we make of all this? As Peter Jennings has said<\/a>, no doubt the dinner Trump and Xi had in Buenos Aires was lovely. There may even be a future \u2018incredible deal\u2019 between Trump and Xi on agriculture, general manufacturing, food and services\u2014although seeing this anytime soon on the back of the Huawei arrest looks unlikely.<\/p>\n

We can be very sure, though, that General Secretary Xi and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party remain ruthlessly focused on achieving strategic and economic dominance in the commanding heights of the future global economy\u2014in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, new energy, biotechnology, new internet technologies and advanced manufacturing.<\/p>\n

So, there\u2019s no end to the renewed strategic and economic competition between China and the United States. There will be continued effort by both governments\u2014and their business communities\u2014to \u2018decouple\u2019 in the areas of high technology and advanced manufacturing.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s understand this central fact, look for the opportunities for Australia, and work through the implications for global security and the regional and global economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Flying home on Air Force One last Saturday, President Donald Trump talked to reporters about his successful dinner chat with General Secretary Xi Jinping, declaring: It\u2019s an incredible deal. It goes down, certainly\u2014if it happens, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":44178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,2267,2228,31],"class_list":["post-44175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-huawei","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMy way or the Huawei: US\u2013China competition steps up a gear\u00a0 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/my-way-or-the-huawei-us-china-competition-steps-up-a-gear\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"My way or the Huawei: US\u2013China competition steps up a gear\u00a0 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Flying home on Air Force One last Saturday, President Donald Trump talked to reporters about his successful dinner chat with General Secretary Xi Jinping, declaring: It\u2019s an incredible deal. 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