{"id":44869,"date":"2019-01-17T11:00:36","date_gmt":"2019-01-17T00:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=44869"},"modified":"2019-01-17T10:07:58","modified_gmt":"2019-01-16T23:07:58","slug":"chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The unfolding geopolitical contest between China and the United States has been described by many as a new cold war. If it ever becomes a hot one, the flashpoint could be Taiwan, owing in large part to Chinese policy towards the island.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s government suspended diplomatic contact with Taiwan in June 2016 because the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which had just returned to power, refused to recognise the so-called 1992 Consensus, the political basis for the One China principle. Since the 2016 victory, however, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has pursued a moderate policy, disappointing hardline DPP supporters.<\/p>\n

That is not good enough for China, which has continued to tighten the screws on Taiwan. For example, it persuaded five other countries<\/a> to follow it in severing diplomatic ties, reducing the number of countries that maintain formal relations with the island to just 17. China has also taken steps to stifle tourism from the mainland: whereas nearly 4.2 million<\/a> mainland-Chinese tourists visited Taiwan in 2015, when the pro-Beijing Kuomintang government was in power, the total fell to just 2.73 million<\/a> in 2017.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s government has not blinked. But, last November, the DPP did suffer devastating losses in local elections, largely because of anaemic economic growth\u2014an outcome that drove the politically weakened Tsai to resign as party leader.<\/p>\n

For China, this seemed like the ideal moment to turn up the heat. So, on 2 January, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a major speech<\/a> on Taiwan, in which he made it clear that China remains determined to seek reunification.<\/p>\n

Xi dismissed the argument that China\u2019s autocratic political system is fundamentally incompatible with Taiwan\u2019s boisterous democracy, insisting that the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 formula, first applied to Hong Kong when it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997, would be sufficient to protect Taiwan\u2019s interests and autonomy. The formula is, however, now unravelling in Hong Kong, where freedoms have been eroding during Xi\u2019s tenure.<\/p>\n

Nor did Xi indicate that he would offer concessions to entice Taiwan back to the negotiating table. On the contrary, despite declaring that \u2018Chinese will not fight Chinese\u2019, he refused to renounce the use of force to prevent Taiwan from seeking formal independence. China must, in his words, \u2018reserve the option to take any necessary measure\u2019, though he claims that the threat is aimed at \u2018external forces and at an extremely small number of \u201cTaiwan independence\u201d separatists\u2019.<\/p>\n

Again, Taiwan\u2019s government was unfazed. Tsai responded with a defiant speech<\/a> of her own, in which she flatly rejected both the One China principle and the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 formula, and called for the international community to support Taiwan\u2019s de facto independence.<\/p>\n

Although Xi\u2019s tough stance towards Taiwan may end up reinvigorating flagging support for Tsai and the DPP, there is no reason to think that he will abandon it anytime soon. But nor is there reason to think that China\u2019s policy will stop backfiring. While inflicting economic pain and diplomatic humiliation on Taiwan may produce some short-term psychological satisfaction for China, the island will adjust over time and Chinese actions will yield decreasing returns.<\/p>\n

For example, after China cut the number of mainland visitors, Taiwan turned its attention to attracting tourists from other countries. Despite the decline in visitors from the mainland, 11 million tourists<\/a>\u2014a new record\u2014visited the island in 2018. To reduce its economic dependence on the mainland, Taiwan has also been aggressively diversifying its overseas markets.<\/p>\n

And although China\u2019s economy is far larger, Taiwan has some important sources of leverage. For example, restricting its electronics industry\u2014which forms a vital link between China and global information-technology supply chains\u2014from doing business with the mainland would significantly accelerate the exodus of export-oriented manufacturers from China spurred by rising US import tariffs.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most dangerous consequence of China\u2019s Taiwan policy is that it raises further tensions with the United States. As the ultimate protector of Taiwan\u2019s de facto independence, the US has already taken steps to convey the message that it will not just sit by and watch China bully the island into submission. Last February, the US Congress unanimously passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which will allow senior American officials to visit Taiwan and vice versa. Though the measure is largely symbolic, it has infuriated China, because it amounts to official recognition of the Taiwan government.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, in September, the US recalled its ambassadors to the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama in protest over these countries\u2019 decisions to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. And proposals to strengthen US\u2013Taiwan defence cooperation, including through the sale of more advanced weapons, are under discussion.<\/p>\n

So far, China has responded to such challenges to its One China policy by ratcheting up the pressure on Taiwan\u2014sustaining a highly dangerous dynamic at a time when US\u2013China relations are already fraught. Unless China\u2019s leaders break the cycle, an escalating battle of wills with the US could erupt into direct conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The unfolding geopolitical contest between China and the United States has been described by many as a new cold war. If it ever becomes a hot one, the flashpoint could be Taiwan, owing in large …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":584,"featured_media":44877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2008,52,106,392,204],"class_list":["post-44869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-autocracy","tag-china","tag-democracy","tag-taiwan","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The unfolding geopolitical contest between China and the United States has been described by many as a new cold war. If it ever becomes a hot one, the flashpoint could be Taiwan, owing in large ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-17T00:00:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-01-16T23:07:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Minxin Pei\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Minxin Pei\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/\",\"name\":\"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-17T00:00:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-01-16T23:07:58+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed62d6c07f0016998ba37db162b7e9d1\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed62d6c07f0016998ba37db162b7e9d1\",\"name\":\"Minxin Pei\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ca20d7958a15eae38b3463a2213f7604?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ca20d7958a15eae38b3463a2213f7604?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Minxin Pei\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/minxin-pei\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist","og_description":"The unfolding geopolitical contest between China and the United States has been described by many as a new cold war. If it ever becomes a hot one, the flashpoint could be Taiwan, owing in large ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-01-17T00:00:36+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-01-16T23:07:58+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":427,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Minxin Pei","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Minxin Pei","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/46752787551_3042ba273a_z.jpg","width":640,"height":427},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/","name":"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-01-17T00:00:36+00:00","dateModified":"2019-01-16T23:07:58+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed62d6c07f0016998ba37db162b7e9d1"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-perilous-taiwan-policy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"China\u2019s perilous Taiwan policy"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed62d6c07f0016998ba37db162b7e9d1","name":"Minxin Pei","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ca20d7958a15eae38b3463a2213f7604?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ca20d7958a15eae38b3463a2213f7604?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Minxin Pei"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/minxin-pei\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44869"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/584"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44869"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44878,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44869\/revisions\/44878"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}