{"id":45325,"date":"2019-02-08T13:09:20","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T02:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=45325"},"modified":"2019-02-08T13:09:20","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T02:09:20","slug":"fears-of-nuclear-rearmament-as-the-inf-treaty-crumbles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/fears-of-nuclear-rearmament-as-the-inf-treaty-crumbles\/","title":{"rendered":"Fears of nuclear rearmament as the INF Treaty crumbles"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

After foreshadowing<\/a> the move late last year, President Donald Trump confirmed<\/a> on 1 February that the US was leaving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The 1987 agreement banned<\/a> the US and Russia from having land-based missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometres. Specifically, the US suspended its compliance with the INF Treaty, and served formal notice that it will withdraw altogether in six months (the minimum notice period allowed under Article XV<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The statement released<\/a> by the White House technically allowed room for the INF Treaty to survive, but only in the event that Russia destroyed \u2018all of its violating missiles [and] launchers\u2019.\u00a0 The last ray of hope for such a prospect didn\u2019t last the weekend: President Vladimir Putin followed America\u2019s lead on 2 February by announcing<\/a> Russia\u2019s suspension of compliance.<\/p>\n

To some extent, these events represented a natural continuation of Trump\u2019s public<\/a> frustrations with various Russian missile provocations. Indeed, the US\u2019s anger at Russia\u2019s non-compliance with the INF Treaty long precedes the current administration. President Barack Obama wrote<\/a> to Putin in 2014, alleging Russia was in breach of its treaty obligations. For its part, Russia contends<\/a> that the US has been violating the INF Treaty since 1999.<\/p>\n

Even in this atmosphere of longstanding agitation, the US and Russia ending the INF Treaty has provided analysts <\/a>with a surge of new reasons to believe that a new nuclear arms race may be underway. In a written statement, Trump said<\/a>, \u2018We will move forward with developing our own military response options\u2019, underscoring his more bombastic line<\/a> last year that, \u2018We\u2019ll have to develop those weapons.\u2019<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, Putin\u2019s statement<\/a> mirrored Trump\u2019s: \u2018They said that they are engaged in research, development and design work, and we will do the same.\u2019 Putin explicitly denied that Russia would be \u2018drawn\u2019 into a nuclear arms race, but the implied threat is difficult to miss. Putin used the same statement to publicise Russia\u2019s plans to construct a new medium-range supersonic missile.<\/p>\n

Despite this Cold War rhetoric, the geopolitical balance between the US and Russia in 2019 is clearly incomparable to that between the US and the Soviet Union. World Bank data<\/a> shows the nominal annual GDP for the US in 2017 as US$19.3 trillion, compared with US$1.6 trillion for Russia. America\u2019s military budget is 10 times bigger<\/a> than Russia\u2019s. Talk of an \u2018arms race\u2019 belies the asymmetrical balance of power.<\/p>\n

This dynamic helps explains why\u2014for all the talk of belligerent Russian breaches\u2014it is the United States that\u2019s driving the destruction of the traditional nuclear order. Putin, after all, suggested<\/a> to Trump in February 2017 that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) be extended. The new American president comprehensively rejected the overture. Whether New START will survive its 2021 expiration date is deeply unclear.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, we can\u2019t be sure whether the Trump administration\u2019s agenda for dismantling arms agreements is reflective of a wider strategic objective, as opposed to an ideological distaste for international agreements. For example, Reuters reports<\/a> that when Putin raised New START in 2017, Trump had to pause to ask his aides what the treaty was\u2014before quickly panning it as \u2018one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration\u2019.\u00a0 Trump\u2019s proclivity for axing international agreements is well documented<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In any case, America\u2019s haste to end the INF agreement shouldn\u2019t be considered without reference to the geopolitical elephant in the room: China, and President Xi Jinping\u2019s nascent missile program. Never bound by the INF Treaty, China has quickly developed<\/a> an arsenal of nuclear missiles as part of its wider efforts to scale up and modernise its military.<\/p>\n

There can be no doubt that the latent Chinese threat has helped galvanise senior American advisers. Trump\u2019s national security advisor, John Bolton (a longstanding China hawk<\/a>), has reportedly told<\/a> US allies that the INF Treaty puts America in an \u2018excessively weak\u2019 position against Russia \u2018and more importantly China\u2019. For what it is worth, Bolton is also a critic of New START, describing it<\/a> as \u2018unilateral disarmament\u2019 on the part of the US.<\/p>\n

One of the most important things to watch following the US exit from the INF Treaty will be whether Washington begins to scale up its own arsenal of missiles in the Pacific. Beijing released a statement<\/a> on 2 February denouncing the \u2018regrettable\u2019 US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, but rejected the possibility of China\u2019s joining any new treaty on intermediate-range weapons.<\/p>\n

Even in the context of the Pacific power balance with China, however, it\u2019s not obvious that scrapping the INF Treaty confers any real advantage on the United States. The INF Treaty only limits ground-based missiles, and the US doesn\u2019t enjoy significant access to much land around China. Placing intermediate-range nuclear missiles in a country like Japan would be an operation laden with risks and complications (especially compared with sea- and air-launched missiles).<\/p>\n

No matter the US strategic agenda, the demise of the INF Treaty is a blow both to the Cold War arms control architecture and prospects for global disarmament. Relations between Russia and the US will perhaps suffer a rupture, but look to the Pacific as the real harbinger of troubles to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After foreshadowing the move late last year, President Donald Trump confirmed on 1 February that the US was leaving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The 1987 agreement banned the US and Russia from having …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":910,"featured_media":45329,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1466,356,163,31],"class_list":["post-45325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-inf","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-russia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFears of nuclear rearmament as the INF Treaty crumbles | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/fears-of-nuclear-rearmament-as-the-inf-treaty-crumbles\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fears of nuclear rearmament as the INF Treaty crumbles | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After foreshadowing the move late last year, President Donald Trump confirmed on 1 February that the US was leaving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. 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